Skip to comments.Romney takes lead in Rasmussen swing-state tracking poll, 49/46; ARG Ohio: Romney up 1 (D+9)
Posted on 10/09/2012 9:06:51 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
We'll have plenty of poll data today, and most of it looks impressive for Mitt Romney --- including one from a surprising source, which I'll get to later today. Rasmussen's swing state poll might be the most crucial for looking at the swing in the race since the debate, since Romney hasn't had a lead in the eleven-state survey since September 19th. Today, however, the poll shows a five-point swing since yesterday and has Romney up three, 49/46:
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. ...
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obamas 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romneys debate win last Wednesday night.
The tracking poll dropped the results from last Monday and added yesterday’s results. That is what produced the five-point swing, and it suggests that stronger results might be on the way, as the last two pre-debate results will drop out tomorrow and Wednesday. Obama had led in this tracking poll by as much as six points on October 1st and 4th, the latter the day after the debate and the last day with no debate-driven results. Obama’s lead went from 6 to 5, then to 3 and a few days at 2 before today’s reversal.
The internals look pretty good for Romney, too, in this latest iteration. He has a 10-point lead among independents at 49/39, the latter a disastrous number for an incumbent just four weeks out from the election. Obama still leads among women, but only by five — and Romney leads among men by 11, for a +6 gender gap advantage. Obama has large leads among voters under 40 years of age (but not a majority among 30-39YOs at 49/37), while Romney wins solid majorities in all other age demos at 40 and above.
Moreover, Romney now leads by six among those “certain” of their vote, at 46/40. The soft numbers for Obama may be a real problem if he can’t dent Romney’s polling surge, as a preference cascade may wipe out the 7% that are leaning towards him now in these swing states. Romney does even better among independents in this measure, leading 43/31 among those “certain” of their choice. Romney has a 14-point lead among “certain” men (and a majority at 50/36), and only a three-point deficit among “certain” women, 41/44.
Those “certain” numbers will be key to watch over the next four weeks. If Romney can start solidifying support while Obama remains in the low 40s (or lower), the break of undecideds might be overwhelming.
Update: A new ARG poll shows Romney now leading Obama in Ohio, 48/47 — even with a D+9 sample. The D/R/I in this poll is 42/33/25; the 2008 election was 39/31/30; in 2010, it was 36/37/28. Among independents, Romney leads by 20 points, 57/37; Obama won them by 8 in Ohio in 2008, 52/44. I would assume that a proper balance that included more independents would extend Romney’s lead significantly.
They are using a democrat sample higher than 2008 and still Obama is losing?????? Sorry but this thing is not even close.
Obama getting his butt whipped right now. But don’t let up for a second people. Obama and his henchmen are going to Chavez the vote-we’ll need to overcome the RAT fraud factor big time.
Pollsters now switching from the “try to influence” mode to the “try to protect our legacy for next time” mode. Everyone knows “debates don’t matter” right? So how come so many people suddenly changed their minds in a matter of a couple of weeks?
The polls are BS, all of ‘em. Rasmussen got praised because he dialed back on the spin and bias better than the others and came closest to being right, is all.
Ignore all of ‘em and Get Out The Vote!
Make the rubble bounce.
Then make it bounce again.
I think the goal at this point is to make it appear that Romney is "only" ahead by a couple points and the race is still winnable by Obama so as to keep the democrat base from just staying home. The dirty little secret is that they may have already written Obama off and are only trying to salvage democrat control of the Senate so they can shut down Mitt Romney's agenda if he is elected.
Obama no longer defines Romney. The voters meet Romney for the first time, last week. It appears they liked his fatherly scolding of the Clown-In-Chief manchild.
I rebalanced this poll to account for the spread on independents, and to make it fit the more realistic partisan numbers from Rasmussen’s poll earlier this fall, and got the following:
Romney - 52.7%
Obama - 43.1%
Other/Undecided - 4.2%
If the republican is winning....it is always a squeaker the last couple of weeks in the polls and corrects the last week showing a break out for the republican until the numbers are where reality is unless the poll is totally in the tank for the dems and there are always a few.....Zogby
The problem for republicans comes in deciding what type of year it is....are the dems really winning or is it the same old game trying to keep their guy in play.
The Move On Thugs have seen these polls and are in state of panic.
Below is a copy of their most recent email to their fellow rats:
Dear MoveOn member,
There’s breaking news from Ohio. And it’s not good.
For months, shady outside groups have flooded the Ohio airwaves with almost $20 million in ads targeting Sen. Sherrod Brown.1
And for months, he’s withstood the onslaught, holding on to a six or seven-point lead.2
But this weekend, two new polls came outone showing a tied race and the other showing Sherrod down four.3
This is, in a word, unacceptable.
Sherrod Brown is a fearless fighter for working people who has taken Wall Street head on, and now he’s paying the price. We can’t let Karl Rove and his big money backers win this one. We cannot let it happen. Can you donate to make sure we keep Sherrod in the Senate?
Yes, I’ll donate $5 to win in Ohio.
Senator Brown isn’t the only progressive who’s facing an onslaught of big money this year.
In Wisconsin, conservative Super PACs are hitting Tammy Baldwin after polls show her taking a small lead over her opponent.4
Tammy’s another great progressive, who led the fight in the House for the Buffett Ruleto make millionaires pay their fair share.5
Her opponent, Tommy Thompson, on the other hand, has spent years working for a D.C. lobbying firm fighting for special interests.
In Connecticut, it’s not outside money that’s the problem. It’s Republican Linda McMahon’s almost unlimited personal wealth. She spent $50 million on her failed Senate bid in 2010 and has already spent more than $13 million this year.6
But Chris Murphy’s valuesfighting for campaign finance reform and quality health careare much more in line with Connecticut’s voters’, and he’s opened a small lead.
These are races we have to win. But Tammy, Sherrod, and Chris need our help.
Click below to chip in $5:
Thanks for all you do.
Daniel, Levana, and the rest of the team
1. “Incumbent Sherrod Brown holds lead over Josh Mandel in Ohio’s hotly contested U.S. Senate battle: The Ohio Newspaper Poll,” The Plain Dealer, September 24, 2012
2. “OH Senator ‘12,” TPM Polltracker, accessed October 7, 2012
3. “Polling Memorandum,” Wenzel Strategies, October 6, 2012
“Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 46%, Mandel (R) 46%,” Rasmussen Reports, October 7, 2012
4. “WI Senator ‘12,” TPM Polltracker, accessed October 7, 2012
5. “The Buffett Rule (Paying a Fair Share Act),” website of Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, accessed September 21, 2012
“Tammy Baldwin To Introduce Resolution Opposing Immunity For Banks In Foreclosure Deal,” The Huffington Post, November 3, 2011
6. “Total Raised and Spent2010 Race: Connecticut Senate,” OpenSecrets.org, accessed September 21, 2012
“Total Raised and Spent2012 Race: Connecticut Senate,” OpenSecrets.org, accessed September 21, 2012
I agree, but I would be very shocked if that is not gone for them also.
When things are within a few percentage points, the dominant factor becomes which side can get more people to show up and vote.
Much of Obama's key support groups..blacks, Hispanics, young women, students..is soft...and as the polls worsen for Obama more will be inclined to stay home..
And this will abslutely kill the Dems down ballot..
Baraq has no chance in Indiana but they’re bringing in BJ Clinton this week to campaign for senate and gov candidates.
Uh oh if this poll is D +9 it’s going to be a marxist ass kicking of monumental proportions
Romney spoke yesterday with the command and poise of a sitting president. We did not see this four years ago with McCain. McCain was always deferential to Obama and even telling the nation they had "nothing to fear" if Obama became president. Romney on the other hand is showing the nation not only that he really wants the job but that he can perform the job way better than his opponent.
But..but... but... debates don`t matter!! The “media” told us so!
I checked the OH absentee stats today, no real change. Perhaps because yesterday was a holiday.
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