Posted on 10/10/2012 8:12:40 AM PDT by xzins
September 30, 2012
| Republican | Democrat | Other | R - D | Quarterly | |||||||||
| 2012 | |||||||||||||
| Sep | 36.8% | 34.2% | 29.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | ||||||||
| Aug | 37.6% | 33.3% | 29.2% | 4.3% | |||||||||
| Jul | 34.9% | 34.0% | 31.1% | 0.9% | |||||||||
| Jun | 35.4% | 34.0% | 30.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | ||||||||
| May | 35.7% | 33.8% | 30.5% | 1.9% | |||||||||
| Apr | 35.1% | 33.1% | 31.8% | 2.0% | |||||||||
| Mar | 36.4% | 33.4% | 30.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | ||||||||
| Feb | 36.0% | 32.4% | 31.6% | 3.6% | |||||||||
| Jan | 35.9% | 32.5% | 31.6% | 3.4% | |||||||||
Well that makes it completely clear why he is now using a D+5 turnout model. /S
I was thinking the Sam thing! Why is he doing that? It’s odd.
What they need to do is figure out how many Democrats and how many Republicans there is in America and go from there. They can do the same thing with the states. It is not a good idea to use 2008 samples or 2010 samples either. 2008 was heavily Democrats and 2010 was heavily Republican and Democrats did not show up. Democrats are showing up in 2012 for sure but by what percentage is a mystery that the pollsters are going to have to figure it out and get it together.
The answer is that he is a stinking pollster.
Why do you think he is using a D+5 model?
He’ll say because the affiliation should be based on the last general election. He’s reluctant to deviate methodology.
In 2008 the election results pretty much matched the previous published polling. In as much, 2008 was a wild swing to Dem compared to 2004, I’m puzzled why polling matched results in 2008 if it was skewed Rep as it should have been. I’m still puzzled by this.
Do you have an example of Rasmussen using a democrat skewed poll?
R-D is the critical factor in handicapping the upcoming election—heavily influenced by Party enthusiasm. Ras has picked up on the fact that 2010 was a prelude to a bigger drubbing for the Dims in 2012. The only other major variable is Independents, which all polls show Romney winning by at least 10%. So if R-D = 0, the I’s win it for us—which is what I’ve always felt.
I’ve read that Fox uses the R-D of D+5 just to have a poll that is not too much at odds with the other MSM outlets—for now. I think that Ras is doing something similar, for similar reasons. As we get to the actual event, everything tightens. Few outlets will want to show Obama with the lead if he is walking into a Carter-2 blowout. So I think Ras/Fox/etc will lead the way in showing just how far off “All us pollsters have been.”
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I think it will be close to the 2004 election when it was pretty much a even split. Of course, that's just my educated guess.
However, it seems all the pollsters are just guessing too.
The Democrats have been running a vigorous, if suspect, voter registration drive, registering pets as well as illegal aliens. In WA State, they made it possible to register to vote through Facebook. I forget what they were doing in Florida, but I do remember hearing that they were even registering people’s dogs. I got an email from Move-On, claiming that the Democrats had succeeded in getting back their lead over Republicans in registered voters.
I think Rs are much more motivated this election than any since 1980...maybe even more than 1980.
I agree. Rasmussen is playing games with his turnout model to make the race look close. The reason for doing so can be debated but I think his reasoning is more selfish. He wants eyeballs and attention. The best way to do that is to keep the race ‘close’. When we get about a week or so out, Rasmussen’s numbers will suddenly ‘shift’.
I know that is not going to stop all the fraud, but it sure helps.
Am I missing something? Everyone keeps talking about Ras usinga D+3 or D+5 sample but what I see for September is R+ 2.6.
I think we will see a +3 to +5 Republican turnout for the 2012 election. The question is how widespread the Democrat vote fraud will be and if it will be enough to overcome the Romney victory. Rat vote fraud will be widespread especially in FL, OH, NV, CO, WI, MO, PA, MI, MO and VA and will occur in every state— the unanswered question is to what extent they have the nerve to take it.
Well that makes it completely clear why he is now using a D+5 turnout model. /S
++++++++++++++
Where did you hear that? I thought it was D+3.
Btw, I believe this is the reason the Obama campaign has put massive pressure on pollsters to use ridiculous turnout models favoring Rats to an extent that will not happen in an hones election.
Any coincidence which helps the Left is not a coincidence.
The R+2.6 is no big surprise. Very healthy. The R+4.3 always looked like an outlier.
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