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Election 2012: If the Popular-Vote Loser Wins, Rift Would Likely Ensue
RCP ^ | 10/11/2012 | Scott Controy

Posted on 10/11/2012 9:41:40 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

If the presidential election were to play out according to RealClearPolitics' latest polling averages, Mitt Romney would surpass President Obama by 1.0 percent in the nationwide vote.

Cue the balloon drop and pop the champagne corks in Boston, right? Not exactly.

Under the same current polling scenario, Obama’s relative strength in the battleground states could propel him to victory over Romney in the Electoral College.

A candidate has been elected president while losing the popular vote four times in American history (including John Quincy Adams, who in 1824 finished second in the popular vote to Andrew Jackson but was elected by the House of Representatives when none of the four candidates won a majority in the Electoral College).

The scenario is always an unlikely one, but given the tightness of the 2012 contest, an electoral victory on the heels of a popular vote defeat isn’t out of the question for Obama or Romney.

In the days before the 2000 election, George W. Bush’s campaign reportedly prepared talking points to dispute the democratic fairness of what was then seen as a more likely outcome -- that Al Gore would win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: electoralcollege; popularvote

1 posted on 10/11/2012 9:41:46 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
BASIC 101 states, IF THEN.

And I'm gonn'a say about 40% of what I read here in FR is IF ... THEN ... and it is all boojit !!

Romney has destroyed any credibility zero may have had and Ryan will not back down from plugs.

The zero administration is over and the only thing left to IF THEN is ... do we enter a new administration with blood and burned buildings, or like mature adults ?

2 posted on 10/11/2012 9:48:34 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: SeekAndFind; knarf

The Left has already said they will riot if Zero loses under ANY scenario..................


3 posted on 10/11/2012 9:51:18 AM PDT by Red Badger (Is it just me, or is Hillary! starting to look like Benjamin Franklin?.................)
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To: SeekAndFind

If Romney were to win the popular vote but lost the Electoral College vote, we would have to demand that Congress certify Romney as the winner.


4 posted on 10/11/2012 9:53:25 AM PDT by Uncle Slayton
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To: SeekAndFind

Look here:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map#map

Ignore the current numbers. Scroll down and look how states voted before they had the chance to “make history” by electing the first black president. They will all go back to their roots (and some will join them). Romney will do a Reagan v Carter.


5 posted on 10/11/2012 9:54:03 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind

If the election were to be held in congressional districts with only two votes determined by the state-wide total, then maybe the situation would be more manageable. And instead of recounts, a second election to be held within a month. Face it, though, there is no best way.


6 posted on 10/11/2012 9:55:14 AM PDT by RobbyS (Christus rex.)
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To: SeekAndFind

If the election were to be held in congressional districts with only two votes determined by the state-wide total, then maybe the situation would be more manageable. And instead of recounts, a second election to be held within a month. Face it, though, there is no best way.


7 posted on 10/11/2012 9:55:18 AM PDT by RobbyS (Christus rex.)
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To: knarf

... do we enter a new administration with blood and burned buildings, or like mature adults ?


I believe it will be the former. If you don’t have food and bullets, GET THEM.


8 posted on 10/11/2012 9:55:24 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Exactly why we need to get more swing states on the allocation system used in Maine and Nebraska: one electoral vote awarded for the winner of each congressional district, two for the winner of the state.

Pennsylvania's Quisling GOP chairman p*ssed away that opportunity last year because "we can win all 20." Instead, they gave us a voter ID law as a booby prize which some fudgepacking judge found a feeble excuse to avoid implementing for this election.

The electoral college serves a very important purpose of making sure the president is elected with a wide test (geography) as well as a deep test (actual votes).

The wide test is perverted when a large state like Pennsylvania is dominated by a single corruption endemic city like Philadelphia.

Gleason, our Quisling GOP chairman, also claimed that adopting the district plan would reduce national campaign spending in Pennsylvania. Hello, assh*le, refusing to adopt that plan has had that effect instead. Imagine how much campaign activity we'd have going on now with 12 to 16 of our 20 available electoral votes actually being competitive and contested.

It would be a whole new ball game nationwide and we would be getting as much attention as Virginia or Ohio.

9 posted on 10/11/2012 9:55:55 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Red Badger
"The Left has already said they will riot if Zero loses under ANY scenario................."

Let'em. Conservatives believe in gun ownership. Liberals believe in gun banning. Who do you suspect is better armed?

10 posted on 10/11/2012 9:56:28 AM PDT by Wonder Warthog
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To: Wonder Warthog
Liberals believe in gun banning.

CORRECTION: Liberals believe in banning YOUR GUN. Not theirs................

11 posted on 10/11/2012 10:01:48 AM PDT by Red Badger (Is it just me, or is Hillary! starting to look like Benjamin Franklin?.................)
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To: SeekAndFind

Not gonna happen. It isn’t even gonna be close. Obama will lose in a LANDSLIDE.


12 posted on 10/11/2012 10:07:19 AM PDT by faucetman ( Just the facts, ma'am, Just the facts)
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To: Vigilanteman

I do not like the allocation system of Maine and Nebraska.

Its appealing at first...until one realizes the congressional districts are gerrymandered beyond repair.

In 2004, only 42 districts (out of 435) were won by less than 4%...or ‘competitive’. This means only 10% of the voters would be voting in a ‘meaningful’ contest.

I haven’t done the math; but, I assume the population of the ‘swing states’ is more than 10% of the nation...making the current system superior, as far as representation goes.


13 posted on 10/11/2012 10:08:19 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: faucetman
"Not gonna happen. It isn’t even gonna be close. Obama will lose in a LANDSLIDE."

A landslide of EPIC proportions...

14 posted on 10/11/2012 10:13:50 AM PDT by EnigmaticAnomaly ("Mantra of the left: 'It's only okay when WE do it.'")
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To: SeekAndFind

Astonishingly slanted story on RCP. I have never heard anything about the Bush campaign in 2000 being ready to dispute the Electoral College, but in the closing weeks, the dems talked at great length and volume about how the EC was the only thing that counted. They were as surprised as anyone that Gore won a popular vote majority. RCP manages to leave that out.

Gore only won the popular vote because of the DUI October surprise, which dominated the news over the last four days, plus the early election night call in Florida, which depressed the Republican vote in the Mountain and western time zones. That, plus vote fraud, which could easily have been greater than the nominal margin.

I wonder if our intrepid reporters are going to press AlGore on the proper response should 2012 reverse the situation.


15 posted on 10/11/2012 10:14:16 AM PDT by sphinx
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To: SeekAndFind
I realy don't know what all the fretting is about.
I live in ny and travel to Brooklyn queens and da Bronx. And I rarely see an 0bami bumper sticker, no yard signs, except for the occasional commie union thug car or white old lady/ man libtard.
Not only is Romney going to win, it's going to be a landslide with a mandate.
16 posted on 10/11/2012 10:18:58 AM PDT by phs3 (FUBO)
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney is going to get at least 325 EVs.


17 posted on 10/11/2012 10:19:43 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: SeekAndFind

I advocate for the district voting system.

Each congressional district gets one electoral vote. The candidate that receives 50+% of the vote within the district get the electoral vote. If no candidate receives 50+%, then the top two candidates by vote count have a run off election in 30 days with the candidate who receives the most votes in the run off, receiving the electoral vote. If the run off results in a tie, the current sitting Governor appoints the electoral vote.

Each state has two additional electoral votes. One vote goes to the candidate that received the most votes in the state (popular vote), the other vote goes to the candidate that received the most district votes. If there is a tie in either condition, the current sitting Governor then appoints the electoral vote.


18 posted on 10/11/2012 10:22:55 AM PDT by taxcontrol
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To: SeekAndFind

As long it is done by the law (and, as long as fraud was kept to a minimum...), using the Electoral College, who cares?

The Electoral College was set up, in part, as a check on the “tyranny of the majority.” Let it do its job.


19 posted on 10/11/2012 10:24:23 AM PDT by Little Ray (AGAINST Obama in the General.)
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To: Signalman
Romney is going to get at least 325 EVs.

I was playing around a little bit with the HuffPo mapping tool. If you use their poll numbers and give Romney every state where Obama hasn't broken 50% (by HuffPo's numbers), that gives Romney 324.

20 posted on 10/11/2012 10:40:56 AM PDT by GCC Catholic
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To: Little Ray

I hear that the ballot count will be done by a firm in Spain. Anyone else heard this? Anbyone but me concerned? Can we guarantee control of our electoral process?


21 posted on 10/11/2012 10:42:11 AM PDT by ArmyTeach (Our liberties, we prize and our rights we will maintain ... USS Iowa BB 61)
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To: Little Ray

I heard that the actual vote count will be done by an agency in Spain. Anyone else hear this? Anyone but me concerned?


22 posted on 10/11/2012 10:43:59 AM PDT by ArmyTeach (Our liberties, we prize and our rights we will maintain ... USS Iowa BB 61)
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To: ArmyTeach

OOPS


23 posted on 10/11/2012 10:44:40 AM PDT by ArmyTeach (Our liberties, we prize and our rights we will maintain ... USS Iowa BB 61)
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To: lacrew
People don't necessarily vote for a congressional candidate and president from the same party.

We have two CD's in SW Pennsylvania alone which sent RATs to congress but voted for McCain. Paul Ryan has won seven elections by landslide proportions in his Wisconsin District but the GOP presidential candidate has carried it only once (Bush, narrowly, in 2004).

The leftists are always whining that we should be more like Europe or Canada. A nationwide congressional district voting system would be a step in that direction without throwing out what the electoral college was designed to do in the first place-- prevent a few large cities from dominating every election.

Gerrymandering can also be addressed at the state level. Iowa, just to name one example, has very neatly drawn congressional districts and Gerrymandering is prohibited.

What's your alternative?

24 posted on 10/11/2012 11:12:49 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Uncle Slayton
If Romney were to win the popular vote but lost the Electoral College vote, we would have to demand that Congress certify Romney as the winner.

We can't do that. It's the exact same scenario that happened with Bush in 2000.


25 posted on 10/11/2012 11:20:25 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SeekAndFind; All

The RCP average has been heading back Obama for the past day or so.

Will be interesting to see what happens.

I believe we will win, but wish it would be expanding again on RCP.


26 posted on 10/11/2012 11:32:06 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Vigilanteman

I should have clarified....42 out of 435 districts were competitive....in the presidential race (not the actual congressional race in that district).

We just re-districted in Kansas. The GOP control everything; but, infighting still screwed it up. It eventually went to court; and, our districts are as irregular as ever.

I can’t imagine what a mess redistricting would be, if it had national implications...it would never leave court.

My alternative? We could have the states vote for president. And by that I mean have the state legislatures vote for electors, in accordance with the un-ammended constitution.

Other than that option (impossible today), I’m fine with the current system. If I were looking to reform the electoral process, I would concentrate on voter ID and double voting. Fix that, and the rest falls into place.


27 posted on 10/11/2012 12:06:34 PM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: ArmyTeach

I have heard that, too. Twenty six states, and supposedly Soros has a substantial interest in the company.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2877117/posts


28 posted on 10/11/2012 12:22:34 PM PDT by Little Ray (AGAINST Obama in the General.)
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To: lacrew
. . . have the state legislatures vote for electors, in accordance with the un-ammended constitution.

That system was mainly used until 1820. South Carolina used it until 1860. All but seven states switched to the current prevalent winner take all method in 1824, which was a major fuster cluck election.

There is nothing constitutionally to prevent a state legislature from taking over the power to select presidential electors again. Personally, I don't think it would be a bad idea if they did. But there would be a huge outcry.

A presidential election brings out a lot of morons who otherwise wouldn't even bother to vote.

Anyway, I can understand your point of view being that you live in a relatively small homogeneous state. I hope you can understand mine living in the mirror opposite type of state.

29 posted on 10/11/2012 1:20:46 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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Actually, that system was mainlyexclusively used until 1820.
30 posted on 10/11/2012 1:22:22 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Vigilanteman

I can certainly understand the problems in Pennsylvania...and Philadelphia is ruining the whole stew. But, this is not unique to one state.

Contrary to popular belief, states like Kansas are not that homogenous. It went 56/42 for McCain....not far off from Obama’s 54/44 split in Pennsylvania. There are strong pockets of liberalism in Kansas...and a district style apportionment in Kansas would result in the loss of one (perhaps two) GOP electors.

Anyway, my solution wouldn’t be an overhaul on the entire system - just stop the fraud in Philadelphia....and all the major cities for that matter. I understand Ohio now has an id law...I imagine Barry will have a very tough time in Ohio, as a result.


31 posted on 10/11/2012 1:56:29 PM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: lacrew
just stop the fraud in Philadelphia....

Been there. Done that. We got a voter ID law passed as a booby prize. One fudgepacker judge suspended its implementation for this election because we couldn't absolutely prove there was not an infinitesimal chance of one legitimate voter being denied.

The fudgepacker actually said that it would be a worse travesty of justice than 1000 illegitimate votes getting through. Never mind that the 1000 fake votes void up to 1000 legitimate votes.

32 posted on 10/12/2012 6:36:52 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Vigilanteman

“Been there. Done that. We got a voter ID law passed as a booby prize”

Oh, I am aware...and its terrible. I absolutely believe that Pennsylvania would go GOP in this election, for sure, if there were a voter ID law in place.

My response to the judge: If somebody isn’t smart enough to obtain a free ID, do we really want their input at the voting booth anyway?

I hope some an O’Keefe type follows a bus around, and documents multiple voting.


33 posted on 10/12/2012 6:43:48 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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