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Gallup: R51/045
Gallup ^ | 10/17 | Gallup

Posted on 10/17/2012 10:06:03 AM PDT by tatown

R-51%, O-45%

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; dearleader; gallup; ilduce; obamateur; poll; romney
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To: tatown

I don’t know the internals, but the polls are finally (surprise surprise) reflecting what is blindly obvious on the ground.

Obama never had any shot at re-election. 45% is still overstating what he will get on Election day.

42-43% tops!! And getting less than that is very very possible still.

This was never a race folks, just a 5 year propoganda machine waiting for the reality to deflate it... Minute it had to face reality unfiltered the wheels were of the bus and could not come back.. everything up to that point was just an illusion.

There is no genie back in the bottle or come back.. though the press will try to pretend there is.. This thing was over before it ever started.


51 posted on 10/17/2012 10:28:39 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: over3Owithabrain

Maybe. Gallup will definitely tighten over the weekend as polls are best for Dems over the weekend. I don’t think there is enough time for pollsters who want to remain credible to play games like you’re talking about this late. Time for those games were last month. The election is a few weeks away and the polls will try to start being as fair and accurate as possible.


52 posted on 10/17/2012 10:29:04 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: struggle
This and Obama playing ads in California means the end.

That's just crazy. If it's even close in CA, that means he's lost in a landslide, nationally. If he wins at all nationally, he will have won CA in a landslide. Either way, it makes no sense to spend ad money in CA.

53 posted on 10/17/2012 10:30:42 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
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To: struggle

Gas prices! Y’all know thet’re a sign of a booming economy!


54 posted on 10/17/2012 10:30:58 AM PDT by CityCenter (It's too late, Obama yeah, it's too late.)
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To: PapaBear3625

This is a 7-day sample. Let’s see where we are next Monday. If Romney leads then, we can start feeling optimistic.


55 posted on 10/17/2012 10:32:05 AM PDT by LowTaxesEqualsProsperity
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To: PittsburghAfterDark
54% to 46% popular vote 330+ on the EC

My Tea Party Wonkette who is really connected says 56% 44%. Their are many here that don't think "O" will break 42%.

Regardless, your 8% spread is the same as the Scott Walker Recall.

IMHO you are smart to go with that number, since the Walker Recall was a harbenger of things to come, no one saw it....

56 posted on 10/17/2012 10:33:53 AM PDT by taildragger (( Fubarward Obama 2012, think about it :-) ))
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To: tatown

Intrade has Obama up 1.6 and Romney down 1.3 at this time.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/

Wonder what happens later today.


57 posted on 10/17/2012 10:34:37 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: SoFloFreeper
Gallup is a liberal pollster...not very accurate! What is the D+ advantage on this poll? +5? +7?

Yes, we are likely seeing a double digit loss for the 'Won'.

58 posted on 10/17/2012 10:34:53 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: tatown

Nothing matters but the swing states.


59 posted on 10/17/2012 10:35:38 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: tatown

Guess the Gallop organization will be hearing again from Axelrod, Cutter, Jarrett,..... and maybe even Eric Holder.


60 posted on 10/17/2012 10:36:31 AM PDT by rod1 (CTLY)
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To: Raycpa

Intraders are being fools who will soon see their money soon departed.


61 posted on 10/17/2012 10:36:49 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: over3Owithabrain

I understand trying not to let yourself get too excited but 3 or 4 polls yesterday had Romney at 50%, even the DKos poll.


62 posted on 10/17/2012 10:37:13 AM PDT by chad_in_georgia
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To: Raycpa
Speaking of Intrade. Here are the pictures used:

Is it just me?

63 posted on 10/17/2012 10:37:42 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: tatown

Always fun to get the DU take:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021566141


64 posted on 10/17/2012 10:39:15 AM PDT by jonno (Having an opinion is not the same as having the answer...)
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To: HamiltonJay

I’m confident after being really concerned a few weeks ago but do you truly believe it’s over? What’s your track record for predictions? ;)


65 posted on 10/17/2012 10:41:12 AM PDT by chad_in_georgia
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To: tatown
Wow is right!

We Own the Enthusiasm!

Fight for America!

66 posted on 10/17/2012 10:41:31 AM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: tatown

Who knows if this still includes Dem over samples in the turnout model ? So the lead is even larger ?


67 posted on 10/17/2012 10:42:35 AM PDT by major-pelham
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To: andy58-in-nh

” But he towers above Obama.”

So does a dead rat left in the sun for a month.


68 posted on 10/17/2012 10:43:15 AM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
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To: Parley Baer

I have a theory that Rasmussen adjusted his turnout model at the end of Septempter(more democrat than the end of August model(post-convention)). So right now his turnout model might be heavier democrat than what Gallup is seeing in responses.


69 posted on 10/17/2012 10:44:27 AM PDT by MarkFLA77
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To: jonno

Out of interest, which site has more members, Free Republic, or Dumbo Underground


70 posted on 10/17/2012 10:45:00 AM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon
Here's the formula in my meager, layman's terms.. LOL

INTENSELY MOTIVATED voters for Romney + DISILLUSIONED former 0bama supporters who will stay home and not vote = Romney/Ryan LANDSLIDE.

This is a contrast in motivation versus disillusion and disappointment. As the election draws nearer, Undecideds will go for Romney.. I predict Romney will SHRED 0bama in the last debate because he's got the fight to bring next time and Bob Scheiffer will not whore himself to 0bama like female moderators do (Lehrer was relatively fair).

71 posted on 10/17/2012 10:45:20 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: jonno

It’s fun to sign up at DU then wait for the opportune moment to trash and disparage them then get immediately kicked off the site. LOL


72 posted on 10/17/2012 10:47:56 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Doctor 2Brains

Good point. 20 more days.... just 20 more days....


73 posted on 10/17/2012 10:47:56 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (Cogito, ergo armatum sum.)
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To: bmwcyle
Mrs. Obama quoted as saying, “I can’t get more angry.”

I guess Michelle Ceaușescu should have clapped harder last night.

74 posted on 10/17/2012 10:47:56 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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To: jonno

It’s fun to sign up at DU then wait for the opportune moment to trash and disparage them then get immediately kicked off the site. LOL


75 posted on 10/17/2012 10:48:34 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Viennacon

FR has more members who have expanded their vocabulary beyond 4 letter words than DU.


76 posted on 10/17/2012 10:48:41 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: tatown

The telegenic teleprompter FRAUD was an easy comparison to the ancient McCain in 2008. It’s whole nother ball game against Romney in 2012. America’s not gonna be fooled twice by a FRAUD who was just forced to play out his ‘Chicago thug’ role.!


77 posted on 10/17/2012 10:48:59 AM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: chad_in_georgia

Hahah well completely blew ‘08, didn’t really leave my comfort zone when talking to people.

This time, have been talking to everyone I can to guage things, and going out of my way to find people that are normally outside my sphere, and I honestly cannot find enthusiastic support for Obama anywhere... Academia is about the only place its fairly stable, everywhere else its in the toilet.

So that’s the annectdotal.. but the more compelling is simply this.. Obama rode a wave of anti-bush, anti-clinton sentiment to the white house amongs at perfect storm as a blank slate candidate.. 4 years later his nothingness shows through, his record cannot be dodged. The very idea America was ever going to elect a president who has presided over an economy with 15%+ real unemployment was laughable on its face.

Not going to happen folks.

Fight like its neck and neck, but this thing was never a race.


78 posted on 10/17/2012 10:48:59 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: tatown

This +6 margin makes sense given Obama only up single digits in very blue states like CT and NJ and, also, with PA and MI in play. I still don’t understand, given all other positive data, why OH isn’t solidly in the Romney column. Is it all about the auto bailout and nothing more? Or is OH going Romney and we aren’t getting an accurate picture there?


79 posted on 10/17/2012 10:50:26 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: tatown; Phillyred; Parley Baer
"and then there is Rasmussen"

Compared with some other polls that give credence to these Gallup numbers Ras is looking like an outlier.

80 posted on 10/17/2012 10:51:48 AM PDT by GonzoII (Quia tu es, Deus, fortitudo mea...Quare tristis es anima mea?)
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To: kevkrom

Theme song of the obama campaign:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YV5ynRFzrIM


81 posted on 10/17/2012 10:55:02 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: COBOL2Java
Ceaușescu...Mussolini?
*snickering* HA! HA!...if ppl. knew of her; they'd be laughing, too...
...firing squad,anyone?...or a necktie party?

82 posted on 10/17/2012 10:58:32 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (WA DC E$tabli$hment; DNC/RNC/Unionists...Brazilian saying: "$@me Old $hit; w/ different flie$" :^)
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To: Signalman
Theme song of the obama campaign:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YV5ynRFzrIM

Thxs, that's great stuff :)..

83 posted on 10/17/2012 11:02:23 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (WA DC E$tabli$hment; DNC/RNC/Unionists...Brazilian saying: "$@me Old $hit; w/ different flie$" :^)
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To: Viennacon

“Pure opinion: I think this is ground Obama cannot win back unless he tries an October Surprise. Here’s why: Obama had been at around 51% before, just a few weeks ago, and Romney gained the upper hand after the debate, but Obama can’t do the same because he’s the incumbent. It’s easy as a challenger to peel voters away from the known quantity if they’re already dissatisfied with his performance, but once they switch, the incumbent has a real hard time getting them back because they already know him. Basically, if you’ve already decided that you’re not going to vote for Barry, you’re already locked in. He can’t pull you back.”

Good points. I agree.


84 posted on 10/17/2012 11:04:15 AM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: tatown

Am impressed!!! Jumping around the internet blogs this morning, the Obamabot media and Obama’s cohort, dirt bags in the Democrat Party are beside themselves with self-claimed victory of their “socialist” Obama at the POTUS debate last night.

I read the tea leaves much differently....and, I am not referring to GOP comments of Romney/Ryan victory at the same debate. IMHO, Romney whipped Obama good, if not fantsstic, with just the support of the plain old American people!!! Of course, we will have to wait a few days to check the polling activity, but the sense I get is that the folks who count and vote are saying Romney won.

Why? Simple: The Economy stupid. And....having Candy Crowley as a second Obama surrogate, ain’t going down well with the rank & file American public!!! America finally got to see and hear the Chicago dirt bag, Obama at his worst, with contempt for all who would oppose the mighty “would be” Adolf Hitler. Bad vibes across the board. Finally.....this Libya farce and failure is going to do him and the entire Demcrat Party in!!!


85 posted on 10/17/2012 11:04:19 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: Arthurio
"but this doesn’t this set the table for the “Obama Comeback” narrative the media wants to foist upon us?"

You can't push a string in LV/PV. And the Undecideds are down to 2%. It's over.

86 posted on 10/17/2012 11:09:23 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NV = 287EV)
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To: Arthurio
Great... but this doesn’t this set the table for the “Obama Comeback” narrative the media wants to foist upon us?

"That dog won't hunt." I now firmly believe this.

All Obama's horses and all Obama's men won't be able to put 0bama back together again.

Oh, they'll try. But they will NOT succeed.

To paraphrase Samuel Adams after Lexington, on November 6 we will be saying: "It's a good day. For American, I mean."

87 posted on 10/17/2012 11:13:17 AM PDT by sargon
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To: Gay State Conservative

If Romney is up 6 nationally, he’ll win all of the swing states.


88 posted on 10/17/2012 11:14:36 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: tatown

Romney crystallized last night it for everyone who had previously voted and/or was considering voting for Obama - if YOU re-elect Obama then the next 4 years will be like the last 4 years!!!


89 posted on 10/17/2012 11:15:15 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: Leep

bb..bbbbbu.....bbbb..bbbbbb..bbbb but all these news sites are saying that he WON THE DEBATE!


90 posted on 10/17/2012 11:18:42 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: The G Man

Rove just repeated what you posted about no canddate losing at this point in an election when they’ve broken 50%, like Romney just did. DOes anyone have a cite from Gallup’s or another website confirming? This is amazing news if accurate.


91 posted on 10/17/2012 11:19:37 AM PDT by Nicojones
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To: tatown

Axelrod is really going to be pissed!


92 posted on 10/17/2012 11:22:31 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: tatown

WOW WOW WOW!!!


93 posted on 10/17/2012 11:26:29 AM PDT by PghBaldy
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To: Nicojones
I have been disappointed too many times before, not buying this Poll. It's just too far out side the norm of all the others Polls. No reason not to buy Rass’s poll with a slim lead and Ohio up for grabs. 2008 Accuracy results Rass 1 Gallup 17
94 posted on 10/17/2012 11:28:00 AM PDT by DAC21
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To: tatown

Will the fat lady , Candy, sing now?


95 posted on 10/17/2012 11:30:58 AM PDT by rurgan (Sunset all laws at 4 years.China is destroying U.S. ability to manufacture,makes everything)
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To: God luvs America

The libs still haven’t realized how clean the knife wounds that Romney plunged into Obama last night were. Consider his indictment of Obama’s economic record of the past 4 years (and if you re-elect Obama the next 4 years will be like the last 4 yrs); and then the whole immigration fiasco (Obama blamed it on lack of leadership by the republican “leader) as well as the hit on Fast & Furious and the deaths of Mexicans and Americans.

People are angry out there, and this jive talkin’ wannabe socialist’s schtick has run it’s course. Romney in a landslide repudiation of the media and liberalism.


96 posted on 10/17/2012 11:32:02 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: rushmom
Pollsters are being more honest now. Before it was all propaganda, showing Obama far ahead to depress the conservative vote. now as the election nears,their credibility is on the line so they have to be more truthful
97 posted on 10/17/2012 11:36:20 AM PDT by rurgan (Sunset all laws at 4 years.China is destroying U.S. ability to manufacture,makes everything)
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To: Signalman
I like this one too:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57tK6aQS_H0

98 posted on 10/17/2012 11:37:05 AM PDT by Mr Ramsbotham (Laws against sodomy are honored in the breech.)
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To: Strategerist

Mark Levin was saying (before the debate) that people assuming Romney’s bump was die to the 1st debate are wrong- that there is something happening in the country, (my paraphrase: and it has been since Obama got elected - Tea Party, Scott Brown, Scott Walker etc. Obama overreached on the wrong issues and people are fed up.)


99 posted on 10/17/2012 11:44:25 AM PDT by PghBaldy
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To: SoFloFreeper

Gallup is a liberal pollster...not very accurate! What is the D+ advantage on this poll? +5? +7?

I am betting more like somewhere in the double digits...


100 posted on 10/17/2012 12:05:50 PM PDT by GraceG
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