Skip to comments.Gallup: In U.S., Unadjusted Unemployment at 7.3% in Mid-October, Underployment down to 16
Posted on 10/17/2012 11:54:46 PM PDT by Abiotic
Unemployment, underemployment lowest since Gallup began tracking
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 7.3% in mid-October, down considerably from 7.9% at the end of September and at a new low since Gallup began collecting employment data in January 2010. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 7.7%, also down from September. October's adjusted mid-month measure is also more than a percentage point lower than October 2011.
These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking surveys conducted by landline and cell phone with more than 30,000 U.S. adults from Sept. 16-Oct. 15. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the .04 upward adjustment used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in October of last year. The adjustment for September was an increase of .02, which explains the .04 drop in seasonally adjusted employment despite the .06 decline in the unadjusted number.
The percentage of Americans working part time but wanting full-time work is 9.0% in mid-October, up from 8.6% in September, but still better than 9.4% in October 2011.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
end of headline should be 16.3%. Need my coffee. Sorry for the carelessness.
Gallup: “My life for you, dear savior Obama!”
I can’t cook eggs as well as they’re cooking the unemployment numbers. Mark my words, the “official” unemployment rate will be below 7.0 before November 6th.
When I used bad math in school, I failed. These people get paid a lot of money to leave out large numbers.
Should Obama win again, likely due to fraud on such a level that it will make the former Soviet Union seem completely transparent by comparison, this country will die in four years.
Senior Obama Campaign adviser David Axelrod reportedly contacted The Gallup Organization to discuss the company's research methodology after their poll's findings were unfavorable to the President. After declining to adjust their methodology, Gallup was named in an unrelated lawsuit by the DOJ.
Axelrod took to Twitter to direct people to an article by the National Journal's Ron Brownstein suggesting a flaw in Gallup's methodology. Brownstein compared Gallup's demographic sampling predictions to previous election exit polls as well as contemporaneous research released by Pew, CNN/ORC and ABC/WaPo.
Connected? You be the judge.
Winston, Winston...the chocolate ration has been INCREASED to 20 grams per week. You love Big Brother, don’t you?
THe FIX is IN!
As I suggested in another thread, the fact that the unemployment rate is going down is, in this case, actually a bad thing overall for the economy. Last week, there were stories in the paper about the Darden restaurant chain, which is beginning to move some of its 185,000 employees from full-time to part time work due to Obamacare. Every time that happens, two full-time jobs are replaced by 3 or 4 part time jobs. The unemployment number comes down, even though the employees aren’t earning the money they need or want. You can see that in the 2nd graph on this page, showing that even though the unemployment rate is going down, the number of workers working part time but wanting full time work is going UP. I believe that employers are beginning a massive shift of employees from full time to part time in an effort to avoid expensive Obamacare penalties and costs. This is a new phenomenon that we haven’t seen before in the numbers we’re about to see.
So, Obama can crow about the 7.7 or 7.3 or whatever the number is, but that’s really a sign of terrible things to come.
This is the first time I ever heard of using underemployed. Why is that being noticed so much this round? Is that the new way of keeping track?
I see a lot of part-time jobs offered that aren’t designed as traditional “second jobs” but rather as somebody’s only job; instead of just working 6 to 9 pm the listing will also mention that you have to be available for any shift (on any day of the week). Whereas before our teens were shut out of the job market by illegal aliens, they now have to compete with America’s former full-time workforce fighting for the scraps of discretionary income that are available (trying to pieve 2 or 3 of these jobs together to form a semblance of the life we had 10 years ago - though without any benefits, including sleep).
The new normal...I can’t believe this election will even be close.
“This is the first time I ever heard of using underemployed. Why is that being noticed so much this round? Is that the new way of keeping track?”
I think it is to give a more accurate picture, as the Wal-Mart original model (almost full-time hours, no benefits) spreads and the number of people working skilled jobs has fallen, forcing them into unskilled, low-paying jobs. It shreds Obama’s “the private sector is doing fine” nonsense (if anyone out there still believed it anyway).
The scale of the underemployment is certainly newsworthy; for example, here in the NYC metro area we have lost thousands of financial sector jobs to India and the Philippines that frankly will never come back. People who thought they had careers in those fields are fleeing the high costs of the area (which were only tolerable because of decent pay before); the number of foreclosures is climbing as the backlog has been cleared and people are again having their homes sold by the banks holding their mortgages. I know 2 computer programmers who were looking for work as cab drivers and security for supermarkets; this is what we’ve been reduced to.
“Underemployment” is necessary to recognize the financial disaster being visited on a huge number of American families.
U6 unemployment was 14.7% in August and 14.7% in September. No change.
In addition to part-time hiring, we should see a shift from full time to part-time work. An example is Obama buddy Clarence Otis's Darden Restaurants announcement that they are cutting employees back to 28 hours per week -- so they are exempt from providing required Obamacare coverage.
Cutting back employees to less than 30 hours would require an employer to hire 1/3 more workers to cover for the same hours. The Federal minimum wage for tipped employees is $2.13/hour and they're now going to be taxed if they don't buy their own health insurance. I don't think an increase in part-time workers with no benefits while there is a decrease in over 30 hour employees with benefits is great news for anyone except the Obama campaign.
Gallup is giving us a heads up that on 2 November, the friday before the election, that the Labor Department will announce a radical decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.8 to 7.3. That will mean that UE has dropped an entire point in 2 months.
That ties in exactly with Obama’s current ad campaign “forward - don’t go back now.”
Is this orchestrated? Rasmussen, always the most accurate poll, still has this as a margin of error race, despite Gallup (interestingly) showing Romney ahead by 6.
This is a last weekend October surprise. How do they cook the books? My sense is that definitions have been loosened up about what constitutes employment.
To blunt this, it must be planned for now.
“I know 2 computer programmers who were looking for work as cab drivers and security for supermarkets; this is what weve been reduced to.”
Absolutely right in line with what obama told us Tuesday night — that he wants to see more manufacturing jobs so those college graduates with engineering degrees will be able to find work.
As initially promised he has reversed Reagan's effects on the economy.
Like all the “improving” economic stuff lately, it is due to Dems getting more optimistic.
Not real improvement.
Independents are so negative, they will not be swung back to O no matter what the job report says days before the election.