Gallup is giving us a heads up that on 2 November, the friday before the election, that the Labor Department will announce a radical decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.8 to 7.3. That will mean that UE has dropped an entire point in 2 months.
That ties in exactly with Obama’s current ad campaign “forward - don’t go back now.”
Is this orchestrated? Rasmussen, always the most accurate poll, still has this as a margin of error race, despite Gallup (interestingly) showing Romney ahead by 6.
This is a last weekend October surprise. How do they cook the books? My sense is that definitions have been loosened up about what constitutes employment.
To blunt this, it must be planned for now.
Imagine the cognitive dissonance set up in tens of millions of citizens’ heads as they are pummeled with the so-called fact that the UE rate is going back to ‘normal’ yet they, for the life of them, cannot find a job that supports them and their families.
The key is the workforce participation rate, which is dropping like a rock, and already at 60 year lows. Simply not counting people who have bogusly been removed from the labor force is NOT fixing the employment situation at all.
In addition, it sets up massive revenue issues, as these people are not paying income tax, and are now , at least many of them, on disability pay. Too many horses being taken from pulling the cart, and placed into it.