Skip to comments.Gallup: R-51/O-45
Posted on 10/20/2012 10:08:03 AM PDT by tatown
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Or Minnesota,Minnesota, Minnesota or Pennsylvania,Pennsylvania
Amen to that!
Cat’s up to no good. 0b0z0’s last battlers trying to stem the tide.
This tide ain’t used for laundry; it’s used to wash the BathHouse from the residing filth.
You gotta play like you are down to your last strike!
NO Chicken Counting!
The ONLY poll that matters: 11-6-12...VOTE!!!
The final two weeks of an election is when reputations in the polling place are made. Reputable pollsters, no matter their political inclinations, are just not going to be ruining their reputations to prop up a losing candidate in the final days.
Obama could blow Romney off the stage Monday night (another highly unlikely occurrence) and it won't really have any material impact on how people are going to vote. Minds have been pretty much made up and as others have pointed out, millions of Americans have already cast their vote in early voting - a pet peeve of mine but I'll save that rant for another thread.
If Obama was several points ahead, I'd be worried but would not be despondent. The challenger usually has a surge in the final few days of the campaign and even if Romney was behind 4-5 points on the Friday before election day, he would have a decent chance of still pulling it out.
But for an incumbent to be dead even or down several points (6 in Gallup!) with just a little over two weeks left and never once at 50% in any reliable poll - well you can just about stick a fork in him. Chances are we are looking at a 54-46 Romney victory or better and that margin will produce a solid electoral victory - perhaps even an electoral landslide. But Obama will likely have California and most of the Northeast so I think you can take comparisons of 1972 or 1980 off the table for now. But I'll take it - I just want Obama to pack his bags and get the hell out of our White House.
There is the outlier possibility that in the final days leading up to the election, Obama might launch a military strike in the Middle East - either to avenge the Libya killings or maybe even team up with Israel to take out Iran's nuclear capability (I'm hoping that Netanyahu will not be a party to this) and that could produce a nice little surge for Obama as some Americans are too dopey to see through it and will think "rallying around the flag" is the thing to do. But aside from something like that, this race is no longer Obama's to win - it's Romney's to lose.
I predicted (wrongly so far) that Gallup would have started circling the wagons by now by tanking for Obama with rest of MSM, but so far and very happily I might add, I am wrong. SO FAR!
I still will be AMAZED if they do not soon tank for Obama. Here`s hoping I am wrong on all counts!!!!
And yes, 0h0m0 will lose in a MUDslide once the ignored NJ and PA continue creeping a little closer toward us next week.
Something about these house cats!
“Then again, Im voting for Gary Johnson”
I suppose you are a “true conservative with principals”: almost exactly same thing as a Progressive/Liberal/Democrat/Socialist/Marxist when it comes to helping make sure Obama wins four more years!
When was the last time a Presidential candidate received at least 50% in a Gallup poll at this point in the campaign and lost?
They say Jimmy Carter burst into tears when he was told that Reagan won.
I would love to see them leave the Washington. What a treat that would be.
I’d be more intrigued to see Michelle Obama’s reaction to the loss..I can imagine it would be the same pity face she had when Obama lost the 1st debate..it was PRICELESS..then she would go on her rant about how she isn’t proud to be an American anymore
IBD/TIpp tracking is showing a 2 point Obama lead, larger than yesterday, but I believe that is jut Dems coming home.
The poll has 7 percent more Dems than GOP.
That is not realistic. Even it shows a lot of Dems not voting O.
Not likely. The Disaster has had it. The Bubble popped two weeks ago.
Nobody is relaxing. The reality is, however, that in 2010, lots of people on the left were cheered by early voting since it showed the GOP turnout wasn’t big.
Well, that turned out to be completely wrong. Dems early vote, while the GOP don’t typically, though the campaign is trying to push for more this year so it can better target election day voters later.
Here in West Texas, there are ALMOST NO election signs out. But, the news said last night they are having record numbers of early ballot/mail ballot requests. I can guarantee they are not voting for Obama.
Funny you should mention "useless idiots."
That's what I call 3rd party voters.
I don’t think polls should be breaking news.
Gallup is using the turnout model they expect to be reality on Nov 6 and using that model Romney is walking away with this thing.
That is exactly what he is doing. He is factoring in the GOP enthusiasm advantage. And Raz is just doing it the old fashioned way, using historical figures and doing some averaging. Good luck with that. I think Gallup is on to something.
I’m betting it’s Gallup at R+2 to Rasmussen’s D+3.
They come closer to being Breaking News than some of the trash that lingers in that sidebar for day and days at times.