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Gallup: R-51/O-45
Gallup ^ | 10/20 | Gallup

Posted on 10/20/2012 10:08:03 AM PDT by tatown

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To: Gay State Conservative

Or Minnesota,Minnesota, Minnesota or Pennsylvania,Pennsylvania

81 posted on 10/20/2012 11:40:03 AM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: Hero
IF and ONLY if we get out the vote, the election is over. We have to get our people out there.

Amen to that!

The Big 95!

82 posted on 10/20/2012 11:46:44 AM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: what's up; catsup

What’s up?

Cat’s up to no good. 0b0z0’s last battlers trying to stem the tide.

This tide ain’t used for laundry; it’s used to wash the BathHouse from the residing filth.

83 posted on 10/20/2012 11:48:47 AM PDT by melancholy (Professor Alinsky, Enslavement Specialist, Ph.D. in L0w and H0lder)
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To: tatown

You gotta play like you are down to your last strike!

NO Chicken Counting!

The ONLY poll that matters: 11-6-12...VOTE!!!

84 posted on 10/20/2012 11:50:18 AM PDT by getarope (I have come here to chew bubble gum and kick ass, and I am all out of bubble gum!)
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To: olrtex
Unless an Obama surge is for real (highly unlikely at this point as he never rose much above 45% and people have pretty much made up their minds on him), it is too late at this juncture for the mainstream media/pollsters to manufacture one.

The final two weeks of an election is when reputations in the polling place are made. Reputable pollsters, no matter their political inclinations, are just not going to be ruining their reputations to prop up a losing candidate in the final days.

Obama could blow Romney off the stage Monday night (another highly unlikely occurrence) and it won't really have any material impact on how people are going to vote. Minds have been pretty much made up and as others have pointed out, millions of Americans have already cast their vote in early voting - a pet peeve of mine but I'll save that rant for another thread.

If Obama was several points ahead, I'd be worried but would not be despondent. The challenger usually has a surge in the final few days of the campaign and even if Romney was behind 4-5 points on the Friday before election day, he would have a decent chance of still pulling it out.

But for an incumbent to be dead even or down several points (6 in Gallup!) with just a little over two weeks left and never once at 50% in any reliable poll - well you can just about stick a fork in him. Chances are we are looking at a 54-46 Romney victory or better and that margin will produce a solid electoral victory - perhaps even an electoral landslide. But Obama will likely have California and most of the Northeast so I think you can take comparisons of 1972 or 1980 off the table for now. But I'll take it - I just want Obama to pack his bags and get the hell out of our White House.

There is the outlier possibility that in the final days leading up to the election, Obama might launch a military strike in the Middle East - either to avenge the Libya killings or maybe even team up with Israel to take out Iran's nuclear capability (I'm hoping that Netanyahu will not be a party to this) and that could produce a nice little surge for Obama as some Americans are too dopey to see through it and will think "rallying around the flag" is the thing to do. But aside from something like that, this race is no longer Obama's to win - it's Romney's to lose.

85 posted on 10/20/2012 11:51:31 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: tatown

I predicted (wrongly so far) that Gallup would have started circling the wagons by now by tanking for Obama with rest of MSM, but so far and very happily I might add, I am wrong. SO FAR!

I still will be AMAZED if they do not soon tank for Obama. Here`s hoping I am wrong on all counts!!!!

86 posted on 10/20/2012 11:55:14 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: catsup
You guys need to trust Nate Silver’s numbers.

Why? Because it's in the NY Slimes? Has he been picking the winners perfectly since 1980 like the U of Colorado professors who say Romney has a 77% of winning the popular vote and will have over 300 electoral votes?

Didn't think so.

Gary Johnson? Seriously? What a dope. Literally.
87 posted on 10/20/2012 11:56:03 AM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: melancholy
The epitome of a drive-by poster!

And yes, 0h0m0 will lose in a MUDslide once the “ignored” NJ and PA continue creeping a little closer toward us next week.

Something about these house cats!

88 posted on 10/20/2012 12:04:27 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: catsup

“Then again, I’m voting for Gary Johnson”

I suppose you are a “true conservative with principals”: almost exactly same thing as a Progressive/Liberal/Democrat/Socialist/Marxist when it comes to helping make sure Obama wins four more years!

89 posted on 10/20/2012 12:18:43 PM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: tatown


90 posted on 10/20/2012 12:19:26 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: tatown

When was the last time a Presidential candidate received at least 50% in a Gallup poll at this point in the campaign and lost?

91 posted on 10/20/2012 12:35:45 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

They say Jimmy Carter burst into tears when he was told that Reagan won.

I would love to see them leave the Washington. What a treat that would be.

92 posted on 10/20/2012 12:43:21 PM PDT by PA-RIVER
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I’d be more intrigued to see Michelle Obama’s reaction to the loss..I can imagine it would be the same pity face she had when Obama lost the 1st was PRICELESS..then she would go on her rant about how she isn’t proud to be an American anymore

93 posted on 10/20/2012 12:48:19 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Viennacon; All

IBD/TIpp tracking is showing a 2 point Obama lead, larger than yesterday, but I believe that is jut Dems coming home.

The poll has 7 percent more Dems than GOP.

That is not realistic. Even it shows a lot of Dems not voting O.

94 posted on 10/20/2012 12:49:54 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Art in Idaho

Not likely. The Disaster has had it. The Bubble popped two weeks ago.

95 posted on 10/20/2012 12:53:51 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: LS; Art in Idaho

Nobody is relaxing. The reality is, however, that in 2010, lots of people on the left were cheered by early voting since it showed the GOP turnout wasn’t big.

Well, that turned out to be completely wrong. Dems early vote, while the GOP don’t typically, though the campaign is trying to push for more this year so it can better target election day voters later.

Here in West Texas, there are ALMOST NO election signs out. But, the news said last night they are having record numbers of early ballot/mail ballot requests. I can guarantee they are not voting for Obama.

96 posted on 10/20/2012 12:54:50 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: catsup; All
Then again, I’m voting for Gary Johnson since Romney is a useless idiot.,

Funny you should mention "useless idiots."

That's what I call 3rd party voters.

97 posted on 10/20/2012 12:58:17 PM PDT by maine-iac7 (Christian is as Christian does)
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To: tatown

I don’t think polls should be breaking news.

98 posted on 10/20/2012 1:04:27 PM PDT by ichabod1 (Spriiingtime for islam, and tyranny. Winter for US and frieeends. . .)
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To: tatown

Gallup is using the turnout model they expect to be reality on Nov 6 and using that model Romney is walking away with this thing.
That is exactly what he is doing. He is factoring in the GOP enthusiasm advantage. And Raz is just doing it the old fashioned way, using historical figures and doing some averaging. Good luck with that. I think Gallup is on to something.

I’m betting it’s Gallup at R+2 to Rasmussen’s D+3.

99 posted on 10/20/2012 1:05:00 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: ichabod1

They come closer to being Breaking News than some of the trash that lingers in that sidebar for day and days at times.

100 posted on 10/20/2012 1:10:29 PM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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