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To: Perdogg

I think the collective fear in here about this being a Gallup ‘setup’ is wrong. Gallup is using the turnout model they expect to be reality on Nov 6 and using that model Romney is walking away with this thing.

If other pollsters were using models closer to 2004 rather than 2008 the RCP average would be 6+ in favor of Romney (not counting the eventual allocation of un decideds).


10 posted on 10/20/2012 10:13:09 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: tatown
I think the collective fear in here about this being a Gallup ‘setup’ is wrong.

Geeeze. Boogiemen enter their collective fantasizing minds. Booooo!

21 posted on 10/20/2012 10:23:33 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: tatown

Gallup is using the turnout model they expect to be reality on Nov 6 and using that model Romney is walking away with this thing.
++++++++++++++++
That is exactly what he is doing. He is factoring in the GOP enthusiasm advantage. And Raz is just doing it the old fashioned way, using historical figures and doing some averaging. Good luck with that. I think Gallup is on to something.

I’m betting it’s Gallup at R+2 to Rasmussen’s D+3.


99 posted on 10/20/2012 1:05:00 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: tatown

“I think the collective fear in here about this being a Gallup ‘setup’ is wrong. Gallup is using the turnout model they expect to be reality on Nov 6 and using that model Romney is walking away with this thing.”

Close ... but I ink more accurate to say it this way:

Gallup doesnt even USE a turnout model! (Correct me if I am wrong, but they dont do the ‘secret sauce’ other pollster do. They just take a straight sample and make sure it is balanced enough up front and go with it.) What that means is that Gallup can ‘bounce around’ more and can be an outlier, but it is otherwise cant get you fooled by ‘turnout models’ that are wrong.

So gallup is probably showing us the REAL 2012 turnout model is a big win for Romney. It’s an Inconvenient Truth so the liberals will hide behind the bogus polls and their bogus turnout models ... until the election.

JMHO.


115 posted on 10/20/2012 2:05:43 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: tatown
I am one of those inclined to believe it is a setup. Gallup is a lefty organization that wants to appear as legitimate. But for the lefties and the communists, there is a higher calling. The last debate will be a major event from which polling manipulation ( pre and post debate) can be used to try to propel the momentum for the White House peacock into the last weeks, e.g. ‘come from behind’: appealing to the old Come Back Kid theme.
117 posted on 10/20/2012 2:52:26 PM PDT by Mizpah ((Teach your children how to think, not what to think.))
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