We are being set up. We are being set up. We are being set up. If I’m wrong I’ll gladly eat my hat, but hold the salt and pepper for now.
Gallup will use something (the third debate, Gloria Allred’s October surprise, Obama’s “fantastic” new agreement with Iran or his decision to launch a drone strike in Libya, or something) as an excuse to change methodology from its current heavy weighting of Republicans. Then the numbers will start to move strongly in Obama’s favor and the MSM can try to create a bandwagon effect by promoting the “Greatest Comeback in American History.”
Pollsters and the MSM have no shame.
If there was the live boy or dead girl, that would already have been news and any foreign adventure Obama decides upon will be seen by Americans as an election stunt - if they had something planned they would have done it already; throwing out rumors is part of the strategy they use to try to depress Republican turnout. This has nothing to do with the truth, its all part and parcel of psychological warfare. And since I have no stake in the outcome of this election, this kind of stuff has no hold on me. I don’t worry about it and I sleep very sound at night.
No, there is nothing Obama can do to get reelected.
I understand your fear, but that makes no logical sense in the era of early voting. Colorado gives a good example - perhaps 75% of the votes there will be cast by mail before Election Day. Why would the powers that be show Romney with a substantial lead when those voters are casting their ballots?
There is no doubt the early polling was influenced by the media narrative, but now pollsters (like Gallup and Rasmussen, especially) need to think ahead to getting work during the next election, and so they start to report more reliabile results.
I would note, though, that I still expect the Gallup numbers to narrow a bit, probably on Monday or Tuesday. If Romney is still above 50% by Wednesday, I think everything breaks his way, and he's the next President.
The final two weeks of an election is when reputations in the polling place are made. Reputable pollsters, no matter their political inclinations, are just not going to be ruining their reputations to prop up a losing candidate in the final days.
Obama could blow Romney off the stage Monday night (another highly unlikely occurrence) and it won't really have any material impact on how people are going to vote. Minds have been pretty much made up and as others have pointed out, millions of Americans have already cast their vote in early voting - a pet peeve of mine but I'll save that rant for another thread.
If Obama was several points ahead, I'd be worried but would not be despondent. The challenger usually has a surge in the final few days of the campaign and even if Romney was behind 4-5 points on the Friday before election day, he would have a decent chance of still pulling it out.
But for an incumbent to be dead even or down several points (6 in Gallup!) with just a little over two weeks left and never once at 50% in any reliable poll - well you can just about stick a fork in him. Chances are we are looking at a 54-46 Romney victory or better and that margin will produce a solid electoral victory - perhaps even an electoral landslide. But Obama will likely have California and most of the Northeast so I think you can take comparisons of 1972 or 1980 off the table for now. But I'll take it - I just want Obama to pack his bags and get the hell out of our White House.
There is the outlier possibility that in the final days leading up to the election, Obama might launch a military strike in the Middle East - either to avenge the Libya killings or maybe even team up with Israel to take out Iran's nuclear capability (I'm hoping that Netanyahu will not be a party to this) and that could produce a nice little surge for Obama as some Americans are too dopey to see through it and will think "rallying around the flag" is the thing to do. But aside from something like that, this race is no longer Obama's to win - it's Romney's to lose.