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October 22, 2012 - Women Put Obama Up 5 Points In Ohio,
Quinnipiac ^

Posted on 10/22/2012 7:18:57 AM PDT by chessplayer

Riding a wave of strong support among women, President Barack Obama holds a 50 - 45 percent lead over Republican Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll released today, half the 53 - 43 percent margin he held when Quinnipiac/CBS News/the New York Times surveyed Buckeye likely voters September 26.

(Excerpt) Read more at quinnipiac.edu ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012swingstates; oh2012; womensvote
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Damn. Time is running out fast. Romney has to have Ohio.
1 posted on 10/22/2012 7:18:58 AM PDT by chessplayer
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To: chessplayer

Anyone who votes for that worthless, ignorant POS needs to be charged for their oxygen; preferably at a rate just higher than they can afford to pay. These people are too stupid to live...


2 posted on 10/22/2012 7:22:12 AM PDT by Common Sense 101 (Hey libs... If your theories fly in the face of reality, it's not reality that's wrong.)
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To: chessplayer

New York Times? CBS? Yah,right.


3 posted on 10/22/2012 7:22:19 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: chessplayer

So, how accurate have the Quinnipiac polls been?


4 posted on 10/22/2012 7:23:07 AM PDT by Nevadan
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To: chessplayer

Dem +9.

Just sayin’.


5 posted on 10/22/2012 7:23:15 AM PDT by PittsburghAfterDark
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To: chessplayer
“Independent voters back Romney 49 - 42 percent.”

Not a chance with Romney up by 7 with Independents. This is the oldest trick in the polling book. Women can also be Independents.

6 posted on 10/22/2012 7:23:47 AM PDT by tobyhill (Obamacare, the final nail in the US coffin.)
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To: PittsburghAfterDark

I don’t think the phone la .... person ... counts as a woman.


7 posted on 10/22/2012 7:24:02 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: LS
Here is party breakdown. Important number again is over-sampling of DemonRATs (+9):

====================
OH1012 Demographics
====================

From October 17 - 20, 2012 Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,548 likely voters in Ohio with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

This sample includes 316 respondents who said they already voted with a margin of error of +/- 5.5%


PARTY IDENTIFICATION - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, 
a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

                            LIKELY VOTERS........
                            Weighted   UnWeighted
                            Percent    Frequency
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican                 26%         432
Democrat                   35          533
Independent                34          522
Other/DK/NA                 4           61

PHONE DISTRIBUTION
Cell only                  18%         228
Land Line only              9          139
Both, cmp from cell sample 15          223
Both, cmp from land sample 59          958

RACE
White                      84%        1324
Black                      11          155
Hispanic                    2           24
Other/DK/NA                 3           45


                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
Unweighted Frequency 1548   432    533    522    707    841   1324    155
MoE (+/-%)           2.49   4.72   4.24   4.29   3.69   3.38  2.69    7.87 

                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
Unweighted Frequency 594    730    658    361    611    713    407    662
MoE (+/-%)           4.02   3.63   3.82   5.16   3.96   3.67   4.86   3.81

                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
Unweighted Frequency 675    872    353    311    455    277    132    463    920
MoE (+/-%)           3.77   3.32   5.22   5.56   4.59   5.89   8.53   4.55  3.23



8 posted on 10/22/2012 7:24:02 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: chessplayer

Shame on the Shack-up Slut voting block that expects the taxpayers to pay for their six or eight children by six or eight men, none of them “husbands”. They are married to the government that provides our dwindling “stash” to their tribe in exchange for their votes.


9 posted on 10/22/2012 7:24:06 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: chessplayer

“”In both the presidential and U.S. Senate races, the roughly 20 percent of those who have already cast their ballots said they backed the Democratic candidates by a larger margin than the overall survey respondents. Among early voters, Obama leads 54 - 39 percent, while Sen. Brown leads Mandel 57 - 36 percent. “”

Really? Sounds about as accurate as Kerry exit poll numbers.

Also I call HUGE BS on a 15% gender gap in OHIO. Why would Ohio have such a larger gap than the national gender gap?

When the hell are we going to get some numbers from Ras on Ohio... ??


10 posted on 10/22/2012 7:24:44 AM PDT by BuckeyeGOP
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To: chessplayer

Again, what’s the D/R/I sampling of this Q-Poll?

Does it realistically reflect the voting registration in the Buckeye State?


11 posted on 10/22/2012 7:24:47 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Common Sense 101

When they say “women” they are probably referring to the breeding stock for more obamaphone recipients.


12 posted on 10/22/2012 7:24:50 AM PDT by SpaceBar
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To: Gay State Conservative

KEEP WORKING like he’s 10 POINTS DOWN because when you figure in voter fraud you have to add at least 5% to Obama’s side.


13 posted on 10/22/2012 7:25:00 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: chessplayer

Would love to know the demographic breakdown.


14 posted on 10/22/2012 7:25:03 AM PDT by Tulane
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To: chessplayer

Take a look at the internals, they weighted the poll +9% Democrat (D 35% R26%), when you do that you’re going to get the results you want.


15 posted on 10/22/2012 7:25:11 AM PDT by gjones77
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To: chessplayer

you’d think that Obama’s continued destruction of the economy and jobs ... would be plenty to get women (and men) to vote for a candidate who has a better track record

Ohio polls continue to bounce up and down and it is a real mystery why anyone in Ohio would even consider voting for the man who has taken away more jobs and economic opportunities form the state than any person in American history

(not to even mention his almost daily barrage of anti-Christian, anti-American statements and actions)

There is something very, very odd (inexplicable?) going on in Ohio and we need to figure it out, right now ...


16 posted on 10/22/2012 7:25:18 AM PDT by faithhopecharity
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To: chessplayer
All because of one or two self-centered issues, most likely. Too bad these individuals can't see that the Dems want to control their moves. The same women who generally preach to be “independent” are the same women who opt to elect political figures and governments to hold their hands. The dichotomy is frustrating, nauseating and appalling.
17 posted on 10/22/2012 7:25:49 AM PDT by ConservativeStatement (Obama "acted stupidly.")
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To: chessplayer

Each of us here are now in the most crucial time ever. For our founding fathers, for the generations yet to come , we must save freedom. Our founding fathers gave it all to us , all that we have : can we keep the faith? The stakes couldn’t be higher . It is up to us to stop evil( obama and socialism). The forces of evil (Obama and democrats) are closing in on their goal of destroying America and freedom .
With the help of the media Obama will pull a Chavez on America and enslave us. Let those that come us after say about us that we in our time we did all we could to keep them free.

No I’m not asking you to walk 20 miles per day over frozen ground to face in battle the greatest
power in the world as our founding Fathers did in the revolutionary war. I’m asking you to do all that you can from this moment forward to the election( calls for, donations to Romney etc).

Our forefathers put up with less tyranny than Obama is piling on us . Our forefathers went to war , walking miles in bare bloody feet on frozen ground, to risk death for freedom. We could make a few calls now.Go to Romney’s site and volunteer to call people in Ohio and other swing states. Doesn’t cost us anything to save America, freedom , and our way of life. The time is now.

Obama is killing coal , oil, etc. and private companies. Just if we allowed the private sector to develop the U.S.’s unlimited coal, oil, natural gas, oil shale etc. just if the government and EPA got out of the way , energy would be the cheapest in the world for U.S. companies who could then outcompete China and other countries.

This POS Obama has closed 204 coal plants,
and done millions of other crimes,
piled on 11,000 new pages of federal regulations on business, and 13,000 pages more government regulations from obamacare coming,
did many unlawful executive orders,
6 trillion $ in new Obama federal debt etc.

you Obama get out of the United States you criminal, marxist, muslim socialist Obama.
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18 posted on 10/22/2012 7:25:59 AM PDT by Democrat_media (limit government to 5000 words of laws. how to limit gov Quantify limited government ...)
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To: chessplayer

I live in Ohio and I refuse to believe this is true.

Romney/Ryan signs and bumper stickers outnumber Obama/Biden by 2 to 1.

It’s nothing like 2008. Many of the Obama voters I know are voting for Romney or Gary Johnson.


19 posted on 10/22/2012 7:26:14 AM PDT by TSgt (Got Landslide?)
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To: PittsburghAfterDark

I saw Sean Trende at RC politics state he thought it would be D+2 or 3...so essentially this poll is tied.


20 posted on 10/22/2012 7:26:26 AM PDT by Tulane
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To: PittsburghAfterDark

So CBS expects us to believe that while the whole world worshiped this guy in 2008 they still expect a better turn-out for him in 2012? D +9 is laughable.


21 posted on 10/22/2012 7:29:00 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: chessplayer

Obama went down and Romney went up, even in this poll. Follow the trend.


22 posted on 10/22/2012 7:29:00 AM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: chessplayer

Their top issues are taxpayer subsidized contraception, abortion AND BIG BIRD? Somehow that just doesn’t jive.


23 posted on 10/22/2012 7:29:57 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Get the transcript Candy! - Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: tsowellfan
KEEP WORKING like he’s 10 POINTS DOWN because when you figure in voter fraud you have to add at least 5% to Obama’s side.

Yes,we certainly must keep working but if this poll starts at Rat +9 then it's credibility is minus 9...particularly given that 13 of Ohio's 18 House seats are currently occupied by Republicans.

24 posted on 10/22/2012 7:30:26 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: SeekAndFind; chessplayer

Party ID is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 34). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).

Look at this poll. It undersamples Rs from 2008. Remember 0bama won the Indies by 8 in 2008 in Oiho.


25 posted on 10/22/2012 7:30:26 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: chessplayer

This is D +9 sample. It is a joke poll.


26 posted on 10/22/2012 7:30:41 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: chessplayer

He doesn’t need Ohio. It can be replaced with any one option below (if he has CO, VA, FL and NC in the bag):

1. PA
2. MI
3. NV, IA, NH
4. NV, IA and 1 EV from Maine
5. WI and any one of the above full states


27 posted on 10/22/2012 7:31:50 AM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: BuckeyeGOP

When the hell are we going to get some numbers from Ras on Ohio... ??


Thats what I’m wondering. He seems to be avoiding Ohio like the plague.


28 posted on 10/22/2012 7:32:11 AM PDT by chessplayer
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To: mrs9x

I don’t think there has been an election in the last 100 years where the Republican percent of the vote was 26%. It is laughable.


29 posted on 10/22/2012 7:32:56 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: SeekAndFind; All
On FOX NEWS Sunday, Chris Wallace interviewed the head of Gallup..when asked about the issue of D/R/I weighting in various polls, the guy said that Gallup doesn't even ask the question of party affiliation..they don't think it's important..

I am now thoroughly confused..

30 posted on 10/22/2012 7:36:11 AM PDT by ken5050 (Another reason to vote for Mitt: The Mormon Tabernacle Choir will perform at the WH Christmas party)
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To: faithhopecharity

In today’s polls, we have Wisconsin, Colorado that is 19 votes, We need 16 more from a group consisting of Iowa; Virginia; New Hampshire and Nevada if he holds what he has plus leaners. In that senario, we need Virginia, and either New Hampshire or Iowa. Doable for sure.

Ohio, who knows what is going on there with the polls, the election or in the water. Romney shifted a lot of support from NC to Penn (!) recently either because he feels Ohio is in the bag or it is so far lost he needs a hail mary pass in Pa, a state which has not gone GOP in a few elections.


31 posted on 10/22/2012 7:36:12 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: chessplayer

Actually Romney doesn’t NEED Ohio... this has been another lie the media has perpetuated from the get go.

Yes, Ohio is the easies path for Romney, but he doesn’t NEED it.. Obama cannot win without OHIO, Romney has several options without Ohio.

However, Quinnepac is full of bullplop showing Obama up 5 in Ohio... that’s out and out nonsense.

Look, I’ve explained this countless times, so I’m getting tired of it.

PA and Ohio are alike in many aspects politically.. Most of the rust belt states are... however states like PA, MI and IL have things that states like OH, IN, IA and WI do not have. What? Simple... the prior states PA, MI and IL all have a huge metropolitian city that represents 10-20+% of the overall state population dragging their states toward the democratic side.. in PA for example PHILLY easily tilts the state 5-8 points democratic. The latter states, OH, IN, WI,IA do not have a megacity like this.. yes they have a few moderate sized cities, but NOTHING like a Philly, or a Detroit or a Chicago... so in those states 1 city cannot overwhelm the rest of the state.

Right now Obama is only up a few points in PA.. So if Obama is only up a few points in PA with PHILLY skewing the vote here heavily democratic, there is no way in hell he’s winning OH, let alone winning it by 5. Ohio will go Romney, and not only go Romney but will likely be Romney by 4-5 points.

Fight like its neck and neck, but stop buying into the BS.

And remember, ROMNEY does NOT need OHIO to win there are many paths to victory for Romney.. Yes OHIO is the easiest, but not remotely the ONLY... for Obama... there is no map for him staying in office without holding OHIO... Ohio is a Must Win for Obama, but its not for Romney.

Go play with the elctoral maps, you’ll see. Romney is going to get FL, NC, VA, IN, CO, NH without any question. I firmly believe he’ll also take IA, OH, WI and yes, even PA personally. With MI as well.. Under the assumptions of that...

Now, Lets play worst case here, Lets say Romney carries, FL, NC, VA, IN, IA, NH and CO... reasonaly safe assumption at this point. That means all Romney needs is ANY state in the Uion to win.. He can take WI, MI, PA or OHIO for the win.. OBama is in a must win situation he cannot afford to lose anything else.

Reality is Obama isn’t going to get over low 40s in the popular vote, I believe personally 42-43% max. He’s not going to win OHIO or WI, or IA.. and frankly I think PA or MI or both will go Romney in the end as well.


32 posted on 10/22/2012 7:39:03 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: chessplayer

Early voting here in the Buckeye state voting hours are daytime weekday hours. Republicans are all at work or retired. The only two people I know who voted early both went for Romney.


33 posted on 10/22/2012 7:39:21 AM PDT by Wiser now (Socialism does not eliminate poverty, it guarantees it.)
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To: mrs9x

I don’t get why anyone would post this poll without looking at the internals first then make sure people know right up front what the Dem vs Rep sample is in the poll? Why post a poll like this then have your first post sound all dire and depressing? I really don’t get it. Some people here live to be miserable or to get bad news.

Clearly this is a horribly flawed poll when you look at the internals.


34 posted on 10/22/2012 7:40:39 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Mouton

IA, VA and NH are all givens as far as I’m concerned at this point. The ONLY rust belt states Obama has a chance at are MN, MI and PA.

He has no chance in IA, IN or OH.

Frankly I think PA is winnable, and so is MI, one if not both will probably go Romney on election day as well.


35 posted on 10/22/2012 7:41:03 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: JediJones

Also nv, ia, congress


36 posted on 10/22/2012 7:41:15 AM PDT by wiseprince
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To: faithhopecharity
There is something very, very odd (inexplicable?) going on in Ohio and we need to figure it out, right now ...

Not too inexplicable. Obama's been carpet-bombing it with ads for weeks, far outspending Romney. Obama seemed to understand when early voting started in Ohio and Romney didn't. Romney will have to make it up with other states now.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/ad-spending-in-presidential-battleground-states-20120620

37 posted on 10/22/2012 7:41:59 AM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: ken5050

I thought that was a weird thing to say. If you have a sample of 50 dems, 25 rep and 25 the results will change if you swap the dem and rep numbers


38 posted on 10/22/2012 7:44:17 AM PDT by wiseprince
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To: chessplayer
I guess a lot of women in Ohio must be under the spell of the “Mandingo Effect”. Too bad for them that Hussein is a gay caballero.
39 posted on 10/22/2012 7:45:05 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty ("Get that evil, foreign, muslim, usurping, gay commie bastard out of MY White House!" FUBO!)
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To: chessplayer

Take it easy folks... they do this to get knee jerk reactions from us to use against us in the hopes of cementing their meager female advantage. If women understand one thing, it is that the economy comes before all else right now... when most folks step into the voting booth, women especially and fence sitters in general, the war in their minds comes to one conclusion... its either their pride of party affiliation and feel-goodism or the economy. My bet is that more break toward the economy than not... they’re just trying to rattle our cage... stay cool...


40 posted on 10/22/2012 7:46:31 AM PDT by dps.inspect (rage against the Obama machine...)
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To: HamiltonJay

From you mouth to God’s ears! I truly hope you are right but like anything else, my opinions are the equal of anyone’s. The only opinion that counts comes on Nov 6th.

If Romney takes Pa, the election will be over as soon as that result is posted, no matter what transpires elsewhere, same for Michigan as either will protend a defeat for His Excellency. I’ve got my fireworks all set to go if that happens.


41 posted on 10/22/2012 7:46:56 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: chessplayer

Not sure what the nervousness is over this poll.

It’s a joke.

It way oversamples Dems (+9) and in addition to the D+9 it uses a ridiculous party breakdown of only 26% Republicans. Even in the worst election for Repubs, it was 31%.

Ohio is a tie, at worst.


42 posted on 10/22/2012 7:48:25 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: ken5050
"...Gallup doesn't even ask the question of party affiliation"

You sure that's in all their polls or just the 7-day Rolling?

43 posted on 10/22/2012 7:50:57 AM PDT by moehoward
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To: JediJones
Did I get your delivery order mixed up? :D


44 posted on 10/22/2012 7:53:41 AM PDT by Daffynition (Self-respect: the secure feeling that no one, as yet, is suspicious. ~ HLM)
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To: Mouton

I agree, Obama loses PA its over, and if he loses PA, given that frankly there hasn’t been an ad I’ve seen on TV here for either candidate for months, Obama is going to lose states no one is even talking about.

I guarantee the news orgs will hold off calling MI,PA, OH and FL as long as possible if its clear Romney has won them , even though they will know the race is over, in hopes of some miracle... but its not going to happen.

They may even try that call FL early to repress the panhandle nonsense like they did a few elections back. Don’t buy into it folks.. GOTV no matter what they say on TV election night... VOTE.

Fight like its 50-50 and GOTV!!! but don’t kid yourself, Obama is going to get crushed and frankly I think he’s known this for months and planning for it... the entire election is just bread and circuses.


45 posted on 10/22/2012 7:53:46 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: chessplayer

The southern Ohio coal belt has had a dramatic turn around. This region which was about fifty/fifty in 2008, is now 70/30 Romney. This is a turn around of over sixty thousand votes. This phenomena is not being accurately factored into polls with current models and techniques. This may be the key to the election.


46 posted on 10/22/2012 7:55:20 AM PDT by allendale
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To: nhwingut; LS

It is even worse than that. If you examine their internals, they actually weight Republicans DOWN by a percent or two and Dems up. The actual number of raw calls were to 27.2% GOP and 34% Dem. They weight the Dems up 1% and the GOP down almost 2%. Now, they did not do it that way, I am sure they tried to weight by gender or some other demographic and that caused the weight on their raw numbers by party affiliation to actually get more skewed. When I corrected for party affiliation, Romney is up by 1.5%. I used a D+2 weighted sample.


47 posted on 10/22/2012 7:58:23 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: TSgt

“Romney/Ryan signs and bumper stickers outnumber Obama/Biden by 2 to 1.”

Unfortunately, that’s not true in my area of Northern Summit County. It’s about 3 to 1 favoring obie and bite me.


48 posted on 10/22/2012 7:59:59 AM PDT by Dr. Bogus Pachysandra ( Ya can't pick up a turd by the clean end!)
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To: chessplayer



49 posted on 10/22/2012 8:02:39 AM PDT by tomkat
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To: HamiltonJay

One of those states no one is talking about is Oregon.


50 posted on 10/22/2012 8:06:20 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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