Skip to comments.October 22, 2012 - Women Put Obama Up 5 Points In Ohio,
Posted on 10/22/2012 7:18:57 AM PDT by chessplayer
Riding a wave of strong support among women, President Barack Obama holds a 50 - 45 percent lead over Republican Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll released today, half the 53 - 43 percent margin he held when Quinnipiac/CBS News/the New York Times surveyed Buckeye likely voters September 26.
(Excerpt) Read more at quinnipiac.edu ...
Anyone who votes for that worthless, ignorant POS needs to be charged for their oxygen; preferably at a rate just higher than they can afford to pay. These people are too stupid to live...
New York Times? CBS? Yah,right.
So, how accurate have the Quinnipiac polls been?
Not a chance with Romney up by 7 with Independents. This is the oldest trick in the polling book. Women can also be Independents.
I don’t think the phone la .... person ... counts as a woman.
==================== OH1012 Demographics ==================== From October 17 - 20, 2012 Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,548 likely voters in Ohio with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. This sample includes 316 respondents who said they already voted with a margin of error of +/- 5.5% PARTY IDENTIFICATION - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what? LIKELY VOTERS........ Weighted UnWeighted Percent Frequency PARTY IDENTIFICATION Republican 26% 432 Democrat 35 533 Independent 34 522 Other/DK/NA 4 61 PHONE DISTRIBUTION Cell only 18% 228 Land Line only 9 139 Both, cmp from cell sample 15 223 Both, cmp from land sample 59 958 RACE White 84% 1324 Black 11 155 Hispanic 2 24 Other/DK/NA 3 45 LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Unweighted Frequency 1548 432 533 522 707 841 1324 155 MoE (+/-%) 2.49 4.72 4.24 4.29 3.69 3.38 2.69 7.87 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Unweighted Frequency 594 730 658 361 611 713 407 662 MoE (+/-%) 4.02 3.63 3.82 5.16 3.96 3.67 4.86 3.81 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Unweighted Frequency 675 872 353 311 455 277 132 463 920 MoE (+/-%) 3.77 3.32 5.22 5.56 4.59 5.89 8.53 4.55 3.23
Shame on the Shack-up Slut voting block that expects the taxpayers to pay for their six or eight children by six or eight men, none of them “husbands”. They are married to the government that provides our dwindling “stash” to their tribe in exchange for their votes.
“”In both the presidential and U.S. Senate races, the roughly 20 percent of those who have already cast their ballots said they backed the Democratic candidates by a larger margin than the overall survey respondents. Among early voters, Obama leads 54 - 39 percent, while Sen. Brown leads Mandel 57 - 36 percent. “”
Really? Sounds about as accurate as Kerry exit poll numbers.
Also I call HUGE BS on a 15% gender gap in OHIO. Why would Ohio have such a larger gap than the national gender gap?
When the hell are we going to get some numbers from Ras on Ohio... ??
Again, what’s the D/R/I sampling of this Q-Poll?
Does it realistically reflect the voting registration in the Buckeye State?
When they say “women” they are probably referring to the breeding stock for more obamaphone recipients.
KEEP WORKING like he’s 10 POINTS DOWN because when you figure in voter fraud you have to add at least 5% to Obama’s side.
Would love to know the demographic breakdown.
Take a look at the internals, they weighted the poll +9% Democrat (D 35% R26%), when you do that you’re going to get the results you want.
you’d think that Obama’s continued destruction of the economy and jobs ... would be plenty to get women (and men) to vote for a candidate who has a better track record
Ohio polls continue to bounce up and down and it is a real mystery why anyone in Ohio would even consider voting for the man who has taken away more jobs and economic opportunities form the state than any person in American history
(not to even mention his almost daily barrage of anti-Christian, anti-American statements and actions)
There is something very, very odd (inexplicable?) going on in Ohio and we need to figure it out, right now ...
Each of us here are now in the most crucial time ever. For our founding fathers, for the generations yet to come , we must save freedom. Our founding fathers gave it all to us , all that we have : can we keep the faith? The stakes couldnt be higher . It is up to us to stop evil( obama and socialism). The forces of evil (Obama and democrats) are closing in on their goal of destroying America and freedom .
With the help of the media Obama will pull a Chavez on America and enslave us. Let those that come us after say about us that we in our time we did all we could to keep them free.
No Im not asking you to walk 20 miles per day over frozen ground to face in battle the greatest
power in the world as our founding Fathers did in the revolutionary war. Im asking you to do all that you can from this moment forward to the election( calls for, donations to Romney etc).
Our forefathers put up with less tyranny than Obama is piling on us . Our forefathers went to war , walking miles in bare bloody feet on frozen ground, to risk death for freedom. We could make a few calls now.Go to Romneys site and volunteer to call people in Ohio and other swing states. Doesnt cost us anything to save America, freedom , and our way of life. The time is now.
Obama is killing coal , oil, etc. and private companies. Just if we allowed the private sector to develop the U.S.s unlimited coal, oil, natural gas, oil shale etc. just if the government and EPA got out of the way , energy would be the cheapest in the world for U.S. companies who could then outcompete China and other countries.
This POS Obama has closed 204 coal plants,
and done millions of other crimes,
piled on 11,000 new pages of federal regulations on business, and 13,000 pages more government regulations from obamacare coming,
did many unlawful executive orders,
6 trillion $ in new Obama federal debt etc.
you Obama get out of the United States you criminal, marxist, muslim socialist Obama.
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I live in Ohio and I refuse to believe this is true.
Romney/Ryan signs and bumper stickers outnumber Obama/Biden by 2 to 1.
It’s nothing like 2008. Many of the Obama voters I know are voting for Romney or Gary Johnson.
I saw Sean Trende at RC politics state he thought it would be D+2 or 3...so essentially this poll is tied.
So CBS expects us to believe that while the whole world worshiped this guy in 2008 they still expect a better turn-out for him in 2012? D +9 is laughable.
Obama went down and Romney went up, even in this poll. Follow the trend.
Their top issues are taxpayer subsidized contraception, abortion AND BIG BIRD? Somehow that just doesn’t jive.
Yes,we certainly must keep working but if this poll starts at Rat +9 then it's credibility is minus 9...particularly given that 13 of Ohio's 18 House seats are currently occupied by Republicans.
Party ID is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 34). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).
Look at this poll. It undersamples Rs from 2008. Remember 0bama won the Indies by 8 in 2008 in Oiho.
This is D +9 sample. It is a joke poll.
He doesn’t need Ohio. It can be replaced with any one option below (if he has CO, VA, FL and NC in the bag):
3. NV, IA, NH
4. NV, IA and 1 EV from Maine
5. WI and any one of the above full states
When the hell are we going to get some numbers from Ras on Ohio... ??
Thats what I’m wondering. He seems to be avoiding Ohio like the plague.
I don’t think there has been an election in the last 100 years where the Republican percent of the vote was 26%. It is laughable.
I am now thoroughly confused..
In today’s polls, we have Wisconsin, Colorado that is 19 votes, We need 16 more from a group consisting of Iowa; Virginia; New Hampshire and Nevada if he holds what he has plus leaners. In that senario, we need Virginia, and either New Hampshire or Iowa. Doable for sure.
Ohio, who knows what is going on there with the polls, the election or in the water. Romney shifted a lot of support from NC to Penn (!) recently either because he feels Ohio is in the bag or it is so far lost he needs a hail mary pass in Pa, a state which has not gone GOP in a few elections.
Actually Romney doesn’t NEED Ohio... this has been another lie the media has perpetuated from the get go.
Yes, Ohio is the easies path for Romney, but he doesn’t NEED it.. Obama cannot win without OHIO, Romney has several options without Ohio.
However, Quinnepac is full of bullplop showing Obama up 5 in Ohio... that’s out and out nonsense.
Look, I’ve explained this countless times, so I’m getting tired of it.
PA and Ohio are alike in many aspects politically.. Most of the rust belt states are... however states like PA, MI and IL have things that states like OH, IN, IA and WI do not have. What? Simple... the prior states PA, MI and IL all have a huge metropolitian city that represents 10-20+% of the overall state population dragging their states toward the democratic side.. in PA for example PHILLY easily tilts the state 5-8 points democratic. The latter states, OH, IN, WI,IA do not have a megacity like this.. yes they have a few moderate sized cities, but NOTHING like a Philly, or a Detroit or a Chicago... so in those states 1 city cannot overwhelm the rest of the state.
Right now Obama is only up a few points in PA.. So if Obama is only up a few points in PA with PHILLY skewing the vote here heavily democratic, there is no way in hell he’s winning OH, let alone winning it by 5. Ohio will go Romney, and not only go Romney but will likely be Romney by 4-5 points.
Fight like its neck and neck, but stop buying into the BS.
And remember, ROMNEY does NOT need OHIO to win there are many paths to victory for Romney.. Yes OHIO is the easiest, but not remotely the ONLY... for Obama... there is no map for him staying in office without holding OHIO... Ohio is a Must Win for Obama, but its not for Romney.
Go play with the elctoral maps, you’ll see. Romney is going to get FL, NC, VA, IN, CO, NH without any question. I firmly believe he’ll also take IA, OH, WI and yes, even PA personally. With MI as well.. Under the assumptions of that...
Now, Lets play worst case here, Lets say Romney carries, FL, NC, VA, IN, IA, NH and CO... reasonaly safe assumption at this point. That means all Romney needs is ANY state in the Uion to win.. He can take WI, MI, PA or OHIO for the win.. OBama is in a must win situation he cannot afford to lose anything else.
Reality is Obama isn’t going to get over low 40s in the popular vote, I believe personally 42-43% max. He’s not going to win OHIO or WI, or IA.. and frankly I think PA or MI or both will go Romney in the end as well.
Early voting here in the Buckeye state voting hours are daytime weekday hours. Republicans are all at work or retired. The only two people I know who voted early both went for Romney.
I don’t get why anyone would post this poll without looking at the internals first then make sure people know right up front what the Dem vs Rep sample is in the poll? Why post a poll like this then have your first post sound all dire and depressing? I really don’t get it. Some people here live to be miserable or to get bad news.
Clearly this is a horribly flawed poll when you look at the internals.
IA, VA and NH are all givens as far as I’m concerned at this point. The ONLY rust belt states Obama has a chance at are MN, MI and PA.
He has no chance in IA, IN or OH.
Frankly I think PA is winnable, and so is MI, one if not both will probably go Romney on election day as well.
Also nv, ia, congress
Not too inexplicable. Obama's been carpet-bombing it with ads for weeks, far outspending Romney. Obama seemed to understand when early voting started in Ohio and Romney didn't. Romney will have to make it up with other states now.
I thought that was a weird thing to say. If you have a sample of 50 dems, 25 rep and 25 the results will change if you swap the dem and rep numbers
Take it easy folks... they do this to get knee jerk reactions from us to use against us in the hopes of cementing their meager female advantage. If women understand one thing, it is that the economy comes before all else right now... when most folks step into the voting booth, women especially and fence sitters in general, the war in their minds comes to one conclusion... its either their pride of party affiliation and feel-goodism or the economy. My bet is that more break toward the economy than not... they’re just trying to rattle our cage... stay cool...
From you mouth to God’s ears! I truly hope you are right but like anything else, my opinions are the equal of anyone’s. The only opinion that counts comes on Nov 6th.
If Romney takes Pa, the election will be over as soon as that result is posted, no matter what transpires elsewhere, same for Michigan as either will protend a defeat for His Excellency. I’ve got my fireworks all set to go if that happens.
Not sure what the nervousness is over this poll.
It’s a joke.
It way oversamples Dems (+9) and in addition to the D+9 it uses a ridiculous party breakdown of only 26% Republicans. Even in the worst election for Repubs, it was 31%.
Ohio is a tie, at worst.
You sure that's in all their polls or just the 7-day Rolling?
I agree, Obama loses PA its over, and if he loses PA, given that frankly there hasn’t been an ad I’ve seen on TV here for either candidate for months, Obama is going to lose states no one is even talking about.
I guarantee the news orgs will hold off calling MI,PA, OH and FL as long as possible if its clear Romney has won them , even though they will know the race is over, in hopes of some miracle... but its not going to happen.
They may even try that call FL early to repress the panhandle nonsense like they did a few elections back. Don’t buy into it folks.. GOTV no matter what they say on TV election night... VOTE.
Fight like its 50-50 and GOTV!!! but don’t kid yourself, Obama is going to get crushed and frankly I think he’s known this for months and planning for it... the entire election is just bread and circuses.
The southern Ohio coal belt has had a dramatic turn around. This region which was about fifty/fifty in 2008, is now 70/30 Romney. This is a turn around of over sixty thousand votes. This phenomena is not being accurately factored into polls with current models and techniques. This may be the key to the election.
It is even worse than that. If you examine their internals, they actually weight Republicans DOWN by a percent or two and Dems up. The actual number of raw calls were to 27.2% GOP and 34% Dem. They weight the Dems up 1% and the GOP down almost 2%. Now, they did not do it that way, I am sure they tried to weight by gender or some other demographic and that caused the weight on their raw numbers by party affiliation to actually get more skewed. When I corrected for party affiliation, Romney is up by 1.5%. I used a D+2 weighted sample.
“Romney/Ryan signs and bumper stickers outnumber Obama/Biden by 2 to 1.”
Unfortunately, that’s not true in my area of Northern Summit County. It’s about 3 to 1 favoring obie and bite me.
One of those states no one is talking about is Oregon.