Skip to comments.Election 2012: Ohio President Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Ras)
Posted on 10/24/2012 5:18:24 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
With just two weeks to go until Election Day, the race for Ohios 18 Electoral College votes is a tie.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
a “tie” can be tipped by fraud
WTH is it with the people of Ohio?????
They want 4 more years of THIS?
He also said Obana is up 13 with early voters. I think 4 years ago he was up 34.
Does any one know the party breakdown of this state poll? What are the crossovers and the Indy vote?
Folks hang up and they are NOT accounted for in poll.
Assumptions of crowds from 2008 crawling over broken glass are used. These are invalid.
Conservatives will be the ones crawling over broken glass on Nov 6. The models are just wrong.
R/R is up by 5 in my estimation in Ohio.
I am in Cincy and have NOT had one knock on my door, no Dem phone calls, and I’m likely the only conservative for blocks in my neighborhood. No, there are not as many signs as in 2008; there is no “buzz” in the air.
“He also said Obana is up 13 with early voters. I think 4 years ago he was up 34”
And Romney will be picking off more Dems than Mclame, so it’s hard to say what O’Dumbo is really up by in early voting.
As I said to a woman in our church who has an Obama bumper sticker, "Where do you buy your gas and groceries?"
Yep. I got the blank stare I expected. Totally clueless 47%-er.
Have you been contacted by Romney/Ryan?
There isn’t really party registration in Ohio. You basically are included in whatever group whose primary you last voted in. So, if in 2008 you voted in the democrat primary to get hillary instead of obama, then you would be on the democrat side of the house.
So, there’s a bit of a reach involved, in my opinion, in assuming that a democrat early ballot is necessarily going to Obama. Probably it is, but I’d say there’s a group of those that will not be obama votes.
I live in Warren County and I see much less enthusiasm on both sides. We have some signs here, but it’s nowhere near the level it was in 2004 for Bush or 2008 for Palin. And this is 70% GOP area. Of course it’s Romney so we won’t get near the broken glass GOP effect. But I can easily see that Obama has the same issue.
So it’s probably going to come down to who has the enthusiasm edge. Kind of up in the air right now, but if I had to bet my own money, I’d put it on Romney. But I’d hedge.
This is better than Rasmussen’s last OH poll where zerO was leading.
Rasmussen Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 45%
Ohio Romney 48% Obama 48%
Swing States: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Where I've highlighted the states where Obama is believed to be either ahead or the race is tied.
So where in the heck it our 5% advantage? Is Romney up by 10% in the non-highlighted states? It doesn't add up.
The Marxist is pouring everything into Ohio.
Money, his time, his ginormous ego, fraud and the dreams of his Communist fathers, (no telling who the heck they are...lol).
I’m praying he loses Ohio and the election in a landslide.
Lord, hear our prayers.
I read that the D/R/I was 38/39/23, which is about where I think it will be on election day; I haven’t seen the cross-tabs, but assume that Romney didn’t do as well with indies here as he has in recent OH polls. This poll isn’t as good for Romney as were other recent polls, which showed the race tied or having Obama up by 1%-3% but with risible D/R/Is. I hope that Ras got a bad sample, because this is too close for comfort.
CRR, I’m in Cincy too. I’ve had Romney volunteers knock on my door and call me numerous times to invite me to Ryan and Romney appearances. Romney signs in my East side neighborhood easily out number Obama signs 20 to 1. The only “competitive” street sign competition I’ve evn seen is driving up Hosbrook Road in Madeira.
Let him pour into OH, the more they see the less they like. The trend is our friend.
Pray for America
I don’t think the Dems will do better than they did in 2008, and then Ohio was D+1. Assume an R+1 and that gives Romney another 2 percentage points.
I am not worried about Ohio. I think Romney has it. (Actually, I could see Romney get north of 320 EV if you assume a 4 point Republican swing in the RCP averages.)
It would have to be more than 10% since the other states include most of the large ones. Something literally doesn't add up.
I can only assume he's employing a different turnout model for his aggregate swing state tracking poll than for his state polls.
Man, I tell ya....
I don’t know what to believe...Both sides are confident that their candidate is going to win...Each have their own good reasons. I just remember the last election (it seems), that McCain was real close to Obama, or that we thought the polls were too skewed to Obama, and sure enough, McCain got blown out.
I hope we were not using rose colored glasses...My gut feel right now is popular vote goes to Romney, but electoral vote will edge towards Obama...
I concur with you. Folks are tired of his hate speech and ego.
72 non highlighted EVs vs 76 highlighted EVs (and I question if NH should be highlighted given many pollsters still show zero with a sizable lead there).
Also consider Colorado, Florida and Virginia are very close, within the MOE.
So yes, Romney must be up in NC by 35
I grew up in Warren County - Mason - and I still have family there. I would agree with what you said. Definitely a GOP county - but whenever I go up to visit, I don’t see too much enthusiasm, either way.
I can report that Clermont county is solid Romney/Ryan.
I’m surprised the local GOP office had any signs left...
The trend is with Romney. Romney was down 4-5 before first debate. He closed it to 2-3 after 2nd debate. It’s now tied.
A president, less than 2 weeks out, under 50, is in big trouble.
Romney will win Ohio by 3-4.
, it occurred to me that almost all of the other polls in Ohio are based on the 2008 party identification turnout which was Dems +8 (an historic high). HERES the rub Ohio does not have registration of party members. SO, HOW did the pollsters gather this information? Heres how - in primary elections you must ASK for either a Democrat ballot or a Republican ballot. The 2008 party identification statistics are based on these numbers established in the primary.
NOW do you recall what was happening in the primary season in March of 2008? McCain had locked up the GOP nomination and Rush Limbaugh was heavily promoting Operation Chaos encouraging conservatives to cross over and vote for Hillary. I did. So, I am one of the people counted in the Dem +8 poll weighing going on this year.
How many of you actually think I will vote dem on November 6?
What percentage of that +8 number actually represents conservative crossovers participating in Rushs Operation Chaos? Id sure like to know, but Im willing to bet its at least 100,000 people.
Here in Ohio Romney is NOT tied, hes AHEAD. Throw in the undecided breaking at least 2 to 1 for Romney and hes safely ahead (for now).
Here are some of the internals for this Ohio poll:
Party Republican 39%
Race White 83%
Gender Male 47%
LVs Republican Democrat Other
Romney 91% 5% 43%
Obama 5% 93% 45%
There are many more Romney/Ryan signs on the east side of Cleveland (in the Democrat stronghold of Cuyahoga County), and more popping up each day. Folks, these are areas that were just littered with Obama signs in 2008.
Over Labor Day, the county fair in Mahoning County (Canfield Fair) - of all places - had many vendors featuring an Anti-Obama, pro-business sign hanging in windows.
It would be juicy if Obama won Ohio, but lost all the rest of the swing states because he was too focused on Ohio.
Wow...Romney is DOWN with Indys in Ohio? That seems a bit odd to me.
If Romney keeps his 3-4-5 point lead in Gallup and Rasmussen, the state poll watching will not matter.
There is no way that Romney will lose the electoral college vote while winning nationally by 3-4 points.
Let’s see. The population of CO (5m) + FL (19m) + VA (8m) + NC (10m) + NH (1m) = 42m
While IA (3m) + MI (9m)+ NV (3m) + OH (12m) + PA (12m) + WI (5m) = 44m
The numbers are relatively comparable (42m v. 44m), so Rass might have used different turnout assumptions for each state.
Oh, and this year, there are 480,000 FEWER dems than in 2008. So my 100,000 estimation may be UNDER the actual Operation Chaos participants.
With Obama at 48 and the undecideds breaking for Romney, this looks like a Romney win. Is this why Obama is talking about how to win without Ohio?
I don’t like the fact that Ras polled more Rs than Ds. All the other polls, had Romney tied with Obama with a D+3-4 sample, and Romney winning Indies by double digits.
This is the first OH poll I’ve seen where Obama is leading Indies. This, I hope, is an outlier.
Quinnipiac has it O+5 in their new poll this a/m
Wait to see the internals before panicking though
Who knows what they’ll be
Romney had been doing well with Indies.
Yeah, the internals trouble me greatly about this poll.
Actually MANY things:
1. Small sample size: 750. I prefer 1000+ for accurate samples
2. Higher R than D
3. More females than males (probably counteracts point 2)
4. The President leads with independents
5. Gov Romney leads only by 5 among males
6. Trails by 7 with those voters with children at home
I really hope this is an outlier. For a sample like this, Gov Romney should be 4-5 ahead
No new Quinnipiac poll of Ohio that I know of. Do you mean the one that covered the period 10/17 - 10/20?
Yes it shows things are still going in the right direction. So if that trend continues R-R should win.
I agree. I have been dying to see a poll that showed a R+1 (or even) sample and here it is. And yet it is not great for Romney.
Like you stated, a sample like this you would think would show a Romney lead of a few points.
If the CBS/Q poll out today is Obama up 5 with a D+3-4 sample then Obama clearly has the edge in Ohio.
I still say, if Romney maintains his 3-4-5 point lead in Rasmussen and Gallup, then he will win the electoral college fairly easily. Only if the national vote is within 1 point then would the EV come into play.
As I said to a woman in our church who has an Obama bumper sticker, “Where do you buy your gas and groceries?”
The same place she got her Obamaphone...TAMP (Food Stamps).
Even the Washington Post/ABC News is getting on the bandwagon.
And Nate gayboy Silver is down to a mere 68% likelihood of obama winning.
The whells are falling off the wagon!
Yep, the Marxist in Chief and his like-minded politicians have insulated their voting base from the consequences of their policies.
I would love to hang some giant banners from freeway overpasses saying, “Did YOU vote for four more years of Marxism?”
Don't forget a couple of things that were harbingers of what's coming: 2010 and the Wisconsin recall.
Dick Morris can be a nut, but I actually agree with him right now. Romney wins by 4-7 points and gets over 300 EVs
Westsider here. I can say in WPH fewer Obama signs than ‘08 and I haven’t had to replace my Rommey/Ryan sign once like I did my McCain/Palin. I think even the vandals are dejected.