Posted on 10/24/2012 5:18:24 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
With just two weeks to go until Election Day, the race for Ohio’s 18 Electoral College votes is a tie.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I can only assume he's employing a different turnout model for his aggregate swing state tracking poll than for his state polls.
Man, I tell ya....
I don’t know what to believe...Both sides are confident that their candidate is going to win...Each have their own good reasons. I just remember the last election (it seems), that McCain was real close to Obama, or that we thought the polls were too skewed to Obama, and sure enough, McCain got blown out.
I hope we were not using rose colored glasses...My gut feel right now is popular vote goes to Romney, but electoral vote will edge towards Obama...
I concur with you. Folks are tired of his hate speech and ego.
Keep praying!
72 non highlighted EVs vs 76 highlighted EVs (and I question if NH should be highlighted given many pollsters still show zero with a sizable lead there).
Also consider Colorado, Florida and Virginia are very close, within the MOE.
So yes, Romney must be up in NC by 35
I grew up in Warren County - Mason - and I still have family there. I would agree with what you said. Definitely a GOP county - but whenever I go up to visit, I don’t see too much enthusiasm, either way.
I can report that Clermont county is solid Romney/Ryan.
I’m surprised the local GOP office had any signs left...
The trend is with Romney. Romney was down 4-5 before first debate. He closed it to 2-3 after 2nd debate. It’s now tied.
A president, less than 2 weeks out, under 50, is in big trouble.
Romney will win Ohio by 3-4.
, it occurred to me that almost all of the other polls in Ohio are based on the 2008 party identification turnout which was Dems +8 (an historic high). HERE’S the rub – Ohio does not have registration of party members. SO, HOW did the pollsters gather this information? Here’s how - in primary elections you must ASK for either a Democrat ballot or a Republican ballot. The 2008 party identification statistics are based on these numbers established in the primary.
NOW do you recall what was happening in the primary season in March of 2008? McCain had locked up the GOP nomination and Rush Limbaugh was heavily promoting “Operation Chaos” encouraging conservatives to cross over and vote for Hillary. I did. So, I am one of the people counted in the Dem +8 poll weighing going on this year.
How many of you actually think I will vote dem on November 6?
What percentage of that +8 number actually represents conservative crossovers participating in Rush’s “Operation Chaos”? I’d sure like to know, but I’m willing to bet it’s at least 100,000 people.
Here in Ohio Romney is NOT tied, he’s AHEAD. Throw in the undecided breaking at least 2 to 1 for Romney and he’s safely ahead (for now).
Here are some of the internals for this Ohio poll:
Total LV’s
Party Republican 39%
Democrat 38%
Other 23%
Total LV’s
Race White 83%
Black 11%
Other 6%
Total LV’s
Gender Male 47%
Female 53%
LVs Republican Democrat Other
Romney 91% 5% 43%
Obama 5% 93% 45%
There are many more Romney/Ryan signs on the east side of Cleveland (in the Democrat stronghold of Cuyahoga County), and more popping up each day. Folks, these are areas that were just littered with Obama signs in 2008.
Over Labor Day, the county fair in Mahoning County (Canfield Fair) - of all places - had many vendors featuring an Anti-Obama, pro-business sign hanging in windows.
It would be juicy if Obama won Ohio, but lost all the rest of the swing states because he was too focused on Ohio.
Wow...Romney is DOWN with Indys in Ohio? That seems a bit odd to me.
If Romney keeps his 3-4-5 point lead in Gallup and Rasmussen, the state poll watching will not matter.
There is no way that Romney will lose the electoral college vote while winning nationally by 3-4 points.
Let’s see. The population of CO (5m) + FL (19m) + VA (8m) + NC (10m) + NH (1m) = 42m
While IA (3m) + MI (9m)+ NV (3m) + OH (12m) + PA (12m) + WI (5m) = 44m
The numbers are relatively comparable (42m v. 44m), so Rass might have used different turnout assumptions for each state.
Oh, and this year, there are 480,000 FEWER dems than in 2008. So my 100,000 estimation may be UNDER the actual Operation Chaos participants.
With Obama at 48 and the undecideds breaking for Romney, this looks like a Romney win. Is this why Obama is talking about how to win without Ohio?
I don’t like the fact that Ras polled more Rs than Ds. All the other polls, had Romney tied with Obama with a D+3-4 sample, and Romney winning Indies by double digits.
This is the first OH poll I’ve seen where Obama is leading Indies. This, I hope, is an outlier.
Quinnipiac has it O+5 in their new poll this a/m
Wait to see the internals before panicking though
Who knows what they’ll be
Romney had been doing well with Indies.
NH,
Yeah, the internals trouble me greatly about this poll.
Actually MANY things:
1. Small sample size: 750. I prefer 1000+ for accurate samples
2. Higher R than D
3. More females than males (probably counteracts point 2)
4. The President leads with independents
5. Gov Romney leads only by 5 among males
6. Trails by 7 with those voters with children at home
I really hope this is an outlier. For a sample like this, Gov Romney should be 4-5 ahead
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