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Election 2012: Ohio President Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Ras)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | Wednesday, October 24, 2012 | Rasmussen

Posted on 10/24/2012 5:18:24 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot

With just two weeks to go until Election Day, the race for Ohio’s 18 Electoral College votes is a tie.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; oh2012; ohio; rasmussen
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1 posted on 10/24/2012 5:18:28 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
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To: Palmetto Patriot

too close

a “tie” can be tipped by fraud

WTH is it with the people of Ohio?????
They want 4 more years of THIS?


2 posted on 10/24/2012 5:21:16 AM PDT by silverleaf (Age Takes a Toll: Please Have Exact Change)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

ping


3 posted on 10/24/2012 5:21:39 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: silverleaf

He also said Obana is up 13 with early voters. I think 4 years ago he was up 34.


4 posted on 10/24/2012 5:23:57 AM PDT by personalaccts (Is George W going to protect the border?)
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To: tatown; SoftwareEngineer; LS; Ravi

Does any one know the party breakdown of this state poll? What are the crossovers and the Indy vote?


5 posted on 10/24/2012 5:24:09 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: silverleaf

BS.

Folks hang up and they are NOT accounted for in poll.

Assumptions of crowds from 2008 crawling over broken glass are used. These are invalid.

Conservatives will be the ones crawling over broken glass on Nov 6. The models are just wrong.

R/R is up by 5 in my estimation in Ohio.

I am in Cincy and have NOT had one knock on my door, no Dem phone calls, and I’m likely the only conservative for blocks in my neighborhood. No, there are not as many signs as in 2008; there is no “buzz” in the air.


6 posted on 10/24/2012 5:24:21 AM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Keep your head up and keep moving forward!)
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To: personalaccts

“He also said Obana is up 13 with early voters. I think 4 years ago he was up 34”

And Romney will be picking off more Dems than Mclame, so it’s hard to say what O’Dumbo is really up by in early voting.


7 posted on 10/24/2012 5:26:36 AM PDT by DAC21
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To: Palmetto Patriot
A tie in Ohio?

WTH?

As I said to a woman in our church who has an Obama bumper sticker, "Where do you buy your gas and groceries?"

Yep. I got the blank stare I expected. Totally clueless 47%-er.

8 posted on 10/24/2012 5:28:10 AM PDT by N. Theknow (Kennedys=Can't drive, can't ski, can't fly, can't skipper a boat, but they know what's best for you.)
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To: CincyRichieRich
I am in Cincy and have NOT had one knock on my door, no Dem phone calls, and I’m likely the only conservative for blocks in my neighborhood.

Have you been contacted by Romney/Ryan?

9 posted on 10/24/2012 5:28:57 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot (2010 All Over Again. Make it happen. Get Busy!)
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To: DAC21

There isn’t really party registration in Ohio. You basically are included in whatever group whose primary you last voted in. So, if in 2008 you voted in the democrat primary to get hillary instead of obama, then you would be on the democrat side of the house.

So, there’s a bit of a reach involved, in my opinion, in assuming that a democrat early ballot is necessarily going to Obama. Probably it is, but I’d say there’s a group of those that will not be obama votes.


10 posted on 10/24/2012 5:31:01 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Palmetto Patriot
Remember, undecideds always breaks strongly (2-1) for the challenger, so when a sitting president is tied with the challenger among declared voters at 48%. It’s really more like 51%R 49%O...
11 posted on 10/24/2012 5:31:11 AM PDT by apillar
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To: CincyRichieRich

I live in Warren County and I see much less enthusiasm on both sides. We have some signs here, but it’s nowhere near the level it was in 2004 for Bush or 2008 for Palin. And this is 70% GOP area. Of course it’s Romney so we won’t get near the broken glass GOP effect. But I can easily see that Obama has the same issue.

So it’s probably going to come down to who has the enthusiasm edge. Kind of up in the air right now, but if I had to bet my own money, I’d put it on Romney. But I’d hedge.


12 posted on 10/24/2012 5:33:29 AM PDT by delapaz
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To: silverleaf

This is better than Rasmussen’s last OH poll where zerO was leading.


13 posted on 10/24/2012 5:35:04 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Palmetto Patriot
Explain the following to me. It makes no sense:

Rasmussen Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 45%

Ohio Romney 48% Obama 48%

Swing States: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Where I've highlighted the states where Obama is believed to be either ahead or the race is tied.

So where in the heck it our 5% advantage? Is Romney up by 10% in the non-highlighted states? It doesn't add up.

14 posted on 10/24/2012 5:36:36 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Palmetto Patriot

The Marxist is pouring everything into Ohio.

Money, his time, his ginormous ego, fraud and the dreams of his Communist fathers, (no telling who the heck they are...lol).

I’m praying he loses Ohio and the election in a landslide.

Lord, hear our prayers.


15 posted on 10/24/2012 5:37:08 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Perdogg; tatown; SoftwareEngineer; LS; Ravi; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; Clintonfatigued; randita; ...

I read that the D/R/I was 38/39/23, which is about where I think it will be on election day; I haven’t seen the cross-tabs, but assume that Romney didn’t do as well with indies here as he has in recent OH polls. This poll isn’t as good for Romney as were other recent polls, which showed the race tied or having Obama up by 1%-3% but with risible D/R/Is. I hope that Ras got a bad sample, because this is too close for comfort.


16 posted on 10/24/2012 5:38:52 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: CincyRichieRich

CRR, I’m in Cincy too. I’ve had Romney volunteers knock on my door and call me numerous times to invite me to Ryan and Romney appearances. Romney signs in my East side neighborhood easily out number Obama signs 20 to 1. The only “competitive” street sign competition I’ve evn seen is driving up Hosbrook Road in Madeira.


17 posted on 10/24/2012 5:42:01 AM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry (Audentis Fortuna Iuvat)
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To: onyx

Let him pour into OH, the more they see the less they like. The trend is our friend.

Pray for America


18 posted on 10/24/2012 5:42:55 AM PDT by bray (Islam- A billion medieval savages can't be wrong!)
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To: silverleaf

I don’t think the Dems will do better than they did in 2008, and then Ohio was D+1. Assume an R+1 and that gives Romney another 2 percentage points.

I am not worried about Ohio. I think Romney has it. (Actually, I could see Romney get north of 320 EV if you assume a 4 point Republican swing in the RCP averages.)


19 posted on 10/24/2012 5:43:47 AM PDT by No Truce With Kings (Ten years on FreeRepublic and counting.)
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To: InterceptPoint
So where in the heck it our 5% advantage? Is Romney up by 10% in the non-highlighted states? It doesn't add up.

It would have to be more than 10% since the other states include most of the large ones. Something literally doesn't add up.

20 posted on 10/24/2012 5:44:46 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: InterceptPoint
I posted the same thing a couple days ago. There's no way to reconcile Rasmussen's individual state polls with his aggregate swing state tracking poll. I created a spreadsheet with 2008 voting totals and adjusted the allocation of votes to reflect his state tracking polls, and when you sum all those you get a dead heat across the 11 states. Theoretically it could be due to higher turnout in Romney-leaing states / lower turnout in Obama leaning states, but the turnout would have to change dramatically in order to account for the difference.

I can only assume he's employing a different turnout model for his aggregate swing state tracking poll than for his state polls.

21 posted on 10/24/2012 5:45:01 AM PDT by NittanyLion
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To: All

Man, I tell ya....

I don’t know what to believe...Both sides are confident that their candidate is going to win...Each have their own good reasons. I just remember the last election (it seems), that McCain was real close to Obama, or that we thought the polls were too skewed to Obama, and sure enough, McCain got blown out.

I hope we were not using rose colored glasses...My gut feel right now is popular vote goes to Romney, but electoral vote will edge towards Obama...


22 posted on 10/24/2012 5:46:04 AM PDT by Maringa
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To: bray

I concur with you. Folks are tired of his hate speech and ego.

Keep praying!


23 posted on 10/24/2012 5:46:27 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: InterceptPoint

72 non highlighted EVs vs 76 highlighted EVs (and I question if NH should be highlighted given many pollsters still show zero with a sizable lead there).

Also consider Colorado, Florida and Virginia are very close, within the MOE.

So yes, Romney must be up in NC by 35


24 posted on 10/24/2012 5:49:00 AM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: delapaz

I grew up in Warren County - Mason - and I still have family there. I would agree with what you said. Definitely a GOP county - but whenever I go up to visit, I don’t see too much enthusiasm, either way.


25 posted on 10/24/2012 5:49:33 AM PDT by MasonGal
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To: Buckeye Battle Cry; CincyRichieRich

I can report that Clermont county is solid Romney/Ryan.

I’m surprised the local GOP office had any signs left...


26 posted on 10/24/2012 5:50:32 AM PDT by TSgt (Got Landslide?)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

The trend is with Romney. Romney was down 4-5 before first debate. He closed it to 2-3 after 2nd debate. It’s now tied.

A president, less than 2 weeks out, under 50, is in big trouble.

Romney will win Ohio by 3-4.


27 posted on 10/24/2012 5:55:31 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

, it occurred to me that almost all of the other polls in Ohio are based on the 2008 party identification turnout which was Dems +8 (an historic high). HERE’S the rub – Ohio does not have registration of party members. SO, HOW did the pollsters gather this information? Here’s how - in primary elections you must ASK for either a Democrat ballot or a Republican ballot. The 2008 party identification statistics are based on these numbers established in the primary.

NOW do you recall what was happening in the primary season in March of 2008? McCain had locked up the GOP nomination and Rush Limbaugh was heavily promoting “Operation Chaos” encouraging conservatives to cross over and vote for Hillary. I did. So, I am one of the people counted in the Dem +8 poll weighing going on this year.

How many of you actually think I will vote dem on November 6?

What percentage of that +8 number actually represents conservative crossovers participating in Rush’s “Operation Chaos”? I’d sure like to know, but I’m willing to bet it’s at least 100,000 people.

Here in Ohio Romney is NOT tied, he’s AHEAD. Throw in the undecided breaking at least 2 to 1 for Romney and he’s safely ahead (for now).


28 posted on 10/24/2012 5:56:49 AM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry (Audentis Fortuna Iuvat)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; Perdogg; tatown; SoftwareEngineer; LS; Ravi; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; ...

Here are some of the internals for this Ohio poll:

Total LV’s
Party Republican 39%
Democrat 38%
Other 23%

Total LV’s
Race White 83%
Black 11%
Other 6%

Total LV’s
Gender Male 47%
Female 53%

LVs Republican Democrat Other
Romney 91% 5% 43%
Obama 5% 93% 45%


29 posted on 10/24/2012 5:57:17 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Palmetto Patriot

There are many more Romney/Ryan signs on the east side of Cleveland (in the Democrat stronghold of Cuyahoga County), and more popping up each day. Folks, these are areas that were just littered with Obama signs in 2008.

Over Labor Day, the county fair in Mahoning County (Canfield Fair) - of all places - had many vendors featuring an Anti-Obama, pro-business sign hanging in windows.


30 posted on 10/24/2012 5:57:51 AM PDT by epcot1982
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To: onyx
The Marxist is pouring everything into Ohio. Money, his time, his ginormous ego, fraud and the dreams of his Communist fathers, (no telling who the heck they are...lol).

It would be juicy if Obama won Ohio, but lost all the rest of the swing states because he was too focused on Ohio.

31 posted on 10/24/2012 5:58:00 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Wow...Romney is DOWN with Indys in Ohio? That seems a bit odd to me.


32 posted on 10/24/2012 5:59:14 AM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: Palmetto Patriot

If Romney keeps his 3-4-5 point lead in Gallup and Rasmussen, the state poll watching will not matter.

There is no way that Romney will lose the electoral college vote while winning nationally by 3-4 points.


33 posted on 10/24/2012 5:59:32 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Let’s see. The population of CO (5m) + FL (19m) + VA (8m) + NC (10m) + NH (1m) = 42m

While IA (3m) + MI (9m)+ NV (3m) + OH (12m) + PA (12m) + WI (5m) = 44m

The numbers are relatively comparable (42m v. 44m), so Rass might have used different turnout assumptions for each state.


34 posted on 10/24/2012 5:59:39 AM PDT by paudio (3Bs: Big-bird, Binders and Bayonets <= New 0bama's campaign slogan)
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To: Buckeye Battle Cry

Oh, and this year, there are 480,000 FEWER dems than in 2008. So my 100,000 estimation may be UNDER the actual Operation Chaos participants.


35 posted on 10/24/2012 6:00:45 AM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry (Audentis Fortuna Iuvat)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

With Obama at 48 and the undecideds breaking for Romney, this looks like a Romney win. Is this why Obama is talking about how to win without Ohio?


36 posted on 10/24/2012 6:01:47 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I don’t like the fact that Ras polled more Rs than Ds. All the other polls, had Romney tied with Obama with a D+3-4 sample, and Romney winning Indies by double digits.

This is the first OH poll I’ve seen where Obama is leading Indies. This, I hope, is an outlier.


37 posted on 10/24/2012 6:03:31 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Quinnipiac has it O+5 in their new poll this a/m

Wait to see the internals before panicking though
Who knows what they’ll be


38 posted on 10/24/2012 6:04:46 AM PDT by JoshuaLawrenceChamberlain
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To: SoftwareEngineer; AuH2ORepublican

Romney had been doing well with Indies.


39 posted on 10/24/2012 6:07:15 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: nhwingut; Perdogg; Ravi; LS; InterceptPoint; tatown

NH,

Yeah, the internals trouble me greatly about this poll.

Actually MANY things:

1. Small sample size: 750. I prefer 1000+ for accurate samples
2. Higher R than D
3. More females than males (probably counteracts point 2)
4. The President leads with independents
5. Gov Romney leads only by 5 among males
6. Trails by 7 with those voters with children at home

I really hope this is an outlier. For a sample like this, Gov Romney should be 4-5 ahead


40 posted on 10/24/2012 6:08:56 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: JoshuaLawrenceChamberlain
Quinnipiac has it O+5 in their new poll this a/m

No new Quinnipiac poll of Ohio that I know of. Do you mean the one that covered the period 10/17 - 10/20?

41 posted on 10/24/2012 6:12:02 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot (2010 All Over Again. Make it happen. Get Busy!)
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To: snarkytart
This is better than Rasmussen’s last OH poll where zerO was leading.

Yes it shows things are still going in the right direction. So if that trend continues R-R should win.

42 posted on 10/24/2012 6:15:45 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I agree. I have been dying to see a poll that showed a R+1 (or even) sample and here it is. And yet it is not great for Romney.

Like you stated, a sample like this you would think would show a Romney lead of a few points.

If the CBS/Q poll out today is Obama up 5 with a D+3-4 sample then Obama clearly has the edge in Ohio.

I still say, if Romney maintains his 3-4-5 point lead in Rasmussen and Gallup, then he will win the electoral college fairly easily. Only if the national vote is within 1 point then would the EV come into play.


43 posted on 10/24/2012 6:16:11 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: N. Theknow

As I said to a woman in our church who has an Obama bumper sticker, “Where do you buy your gas and groceries?”


The same place she got her Obamaphone...TAMP (Food Stamps).


44 posted on 10/24/2012 6:16:11 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/23/post-abc-tracking-poll-romney-49-percent-obama-48/?print=1

Even the Washington Post/ABC News is getting on the bandwagon.

And Nate gayboy Silver is down to a mere 68% likelihood of obama winning.

The whells are falling off the wagon!


45 posted on 10/24/2012 6:16:20 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Hotlanta Mike

Yep, the Marxist in Chief and his like-minded politicians have insulated their voting base from the consequences of their policies.


46 posted on 10/24/2012 6:18:29 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: silverleaf

I would love to hang some giant banners from freeway overpasses saying, “Did YOU vote for four more years of Marxism?”


47 posted on 10/24/2012 6:19:47 AM PDT by Eye of Unk (OPSEC)
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To: Palmetto Patriot
Romney wants Ohio but he is using another tactic that will get him the states. Romney wins with 280+ electoral votes without Ohio and over 300 with.
48 posted on 10/24/2012 6:19:59 AM PDT by tobyhill (Obamacare, the final nail in the US coffin.)
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To: Palmetto Patriot
..the only thing as close to the dynamic of this election in my lifetime was 1980--people have made their minds up early and they are very angry at O (Carter).

Don't forget a couple of things that were harbingers of what's coming: 2010 and the Wisconsin recall.

Dick Morris can be a nut, but I actually agree with him right now. Romney wins by 4-7 points and gets over 300 EVs

49 posted on 10/24/2012 6:23:54 AM PDT by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: Buckeye Battle Cry

Westsider here. I can say in WPH fewer Obama signs than ‘08 and I haven’t had to replace my Rommey/Ryan sign once like I did my McCain/Palin. I think even the vandals are dejected.


50 posted on 10/24/2012 6:24:38 AM PDT by bleach (If I agreed with you, we would both be wrong.)
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