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Election 2012: Ohio President Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Ras)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | Wednesday, October 24, 2012 | Rasmussen

Posted on 10/24/2012 5:18:24 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot

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To: SoftwareEngineer

Hmm.. the overpolling of women was +6.


51 posted on 10/24/2012 6:26:04 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: InterceptPoint

Non of that makes sense. Not one bit.


52 posted on 10/24/2012 6:29:47 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: SoftwareEngineer

SE - Rasmussen Daily looking good today (released in 3 minutes). Very good with Indies!!!!

Which makes me think this Ohio poll is an outlier re: Indies.


53 posted on 10/24/2012 6:31:42 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: nhwingut

The last CeeBs/Q poll out in OH was D+9, IIRC.


54 posted on 10/24/2012 6:32:16 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: InterceptPoint
So where in the heck it our 5% advantage? Is Romney up by 10% in the non-highlighted states? It doesn't add up.

Not quite ten points but in North Carolina (+6), Virginia (+3), Colorado (+4) and Florida (+5). However it is just about that bad for Obama. What skews the battleground poll is that the poll is weighted by the population of the states involved. Romney has big leads in big states. Because of their relative populations a five point lead in Florida is the same as a 20 point lead in Iowa. Obama has small leads in small states, Romney has big leads in big states.

Also Rasmussen has Obama is listed as a dead even tie in Iowa and Ohio The only high pop state Obama has a lead in is PA (-4)
55 posted on 10/24/2012 7:01:43 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: KC_Conspirator

Rasmussen’s electoral scoreboard yesterday showed that wins in Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada will give Romney a win without Ohio.


56 posted on 10/24/2012 7:06:20 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: NittanyLion

Lion, yours is as good a supposition as any to explain the inconsistency in the two polls from Ras. Whatever the truth, we do KNOW beyond doubt that Ras is doing whatever he wants with these numbers and not telling us what it is. Adjusting them - as you point out - in DIFFERING ways for whatever reason.


57 posted on 10/24/2012 7:14:39 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: InterceptPoint

Good catch.


58 posted on 10/24/2012 7:24:56 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: CincyRichieRich

I am in the demokrat republik of Maryland and I too have noticed a big LACK of yard signs and bumper stickers

A few lonely obama signs sit in the yard of a habitat for humanity house, and a shiny new prius with an obama bumper sticker did force me out of the turn lane in traffic this week

In 08 these people were everywhere


59 posted on 10/24/2012 7:27:32 AM PDT by silverleaf (Age Takes a Toll: Please Have Exact Change)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Apparently the numbers coming from Ohio don’t make any sense.
Ohio typically gave to the GOP candidate a slightly better than the national average result.
A GOP candidate claerly leading nationally shouldn’t have any problem carrying Ohio.

Either these numbers aren’t accurate or the car-factor is bigger than expected.


60 posted on 10/24/2012 7:30:28 AM PDT by Massimo75
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To: Palmetto Patriot
Full demographic breakdown Party: Republican 39% Democrat 38% Other 23%
61 posted on 10/24/2012 7:30:49 AM PDT by Massimo75
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Additional information from this survey:

Whom do you trust more to handle the economy….Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

51% Mitt Romney
44% Barack Obama
5% Not Sure

Whom do you trust more to handle national security issues…Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

46% Mitt Romney
50% Barack Obama
4% Not Sure

Whom do you trust more to handle energy policy….Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

51% Mitt Romney
44% Barack Obama
5% Not sure

If Mitt Romney is elected president and Republicans win control of Congress, is the economy likely to get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
46% Better
36% Worse
14% Stay about the same
4% Not sure

If President Obama is reelected and Democrats regain control of Congress, is the economy likely to get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
37% Better
40% Worse
20% Stay about the same
3% Not sure

Generally speaking, how would you rate the U.S. economy these days? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?
1% Excellent
17% Good
38% Fair
43% Poor
1% Not sure

Are economic conditions in the country getting better or worse?
41% Better
35% Worse
20% Staying the same
4% Not sure

Sometimes, unexpected things come up that prevent people from voting on Election Day. Are you certain that you will vote in this year’s elections, or is it possible that something could come up that would prevent you from voting?

97% Certain
3% Something could prevent you from voting

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

36% Strongly approve
15% Somewhat approve
7% Somewhat disapprove
41% Strongly disapprove
0% Not sure


62 posted on 10/24/2012 7:30:58 AM PDT by Massimo75
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To: xzins

Yes. Basically, if Romney takes the south, and gets a NH, NV, IA combo, he does not need OH.


63 posted on 10/24/2012 7:31:13 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Additional informations for this survey:

Whom do you trust more to handle the economy….Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

51% Mitt Romney
44% Barack Obama
5% Not Sure

Whom do you trust more to handle national security issues…Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

46% Mitt Romney
50% Barack Obama
4% Not Sure

Whom do you trust more to handle energy policy….Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

51% Mitt Romney
44% Barack Obama
5% Not sure

If Mitt Romney is elected president and Republicans win control of Congress, is the economy likely to get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
46% Better
36% Worse
14% Stay about the same
4% Not sure

If President Obama is reelected and Democrats regain control of Congress, is the economy likely to get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
37% Better
40% Worse
20% Stay about the same
3% Not sure

Generally speaking, how would you rate the U.S. economy these days? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?
1% Excellent
17% Good
38% Fair
43% Poor
1% Not sure

Are economic conditions in the country getting better or worse?
41% Better
35% Worse
20% Staying the same
4% Not sure

Sometimes, unexpected things come up that prevent people from voting on Election Day. Are you certain that you will vote in this year’s elections, or is it possible that something could come up that would prevent you from voting?

97% Certain
3% Something could prevent you from voting

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

36% Strongly approve
15% Somewhat approve
7% Somewhat disapprove
41% Strongly disapprove
0% Not sure


64 posted on 10/24/2012 7:45:44 AM PDT by Massimo75
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To: silverleaf
WTH is it with the people of Ohio????? They want 4 more years of THIS?

Ohio's Democrat roots are as long and deep as the KKK and Unions. About the only thing that could get most of them to vote for a Black guy is that he was/is the Democrat's choice. I say this as one who acquired in-laws from the Sprigfield area and have raptly watched/listened/debated with them over the last 20 years. The in-laws now claim that Obama has to go and that everyone they know feels the same, but how much a sectional of Ohio is represented is questionable. You won't see many Romney/Ryan signs in the area, but probably even fewer Obama signs. I still have hopes that Ohio is polling closer than it really is and that they aren't turning into San Francisco (depsite their open disgust at Homosexuality) and Ohio might be ours by 2-5 points come election day.

65 posted on 10/24/2012 7:49:43 AM PDT by trebb (Allies no longer trust us. Enemies no longer fear us.)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

“The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote.”

THIS is the change I was waiting to see (along with Ras’ report today that Iowa is now 48-48, as well).

So long as Obama held his lead in both of the above states, it was going to be a tough climb for Romney to “run around him”.

But now that Mr. Romney has pulled neck-and-neck, getting to the finish line ahead of Obama becomes MUCH easier for the Romney campaign (because of the “uncommitteds” who will break in favor of the challenger).

I think we may have both Ohio and Iowa. If so, Obama is defeated.
(Aside — Obama will likely still win PA, MI, MN, NV and WI, but it won’t matter so long as Romney wins both IA and OH).

I’ll predict the final Electoral College tally as Romney - 277, Obama - 252 (assuming Mr. Romney gets the one Congressional district in Maine that is leaning towards him, otherwise, it will be 276-253).

A very tight win — but still a victory.


66 posted on 10/24/2012 7:52:18 AM PDT by Road Glide
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To: silverleaf

I saw my first Obama yard sign yesterday and I am in WA State.


67 posted on 10/24/2012 7:52:35 AM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans diedI)
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To: silverleaf; All

This poll has more R’s than D’s, the first that I have seen.

I will admit, THIS ONE does concern me here.

It does oversample women, which may counter that, but I am not going to lie....Ohio is my one worry state.


68 posted on 10/24/2012 7:58:55 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: trebb

Ohio has an uncanny ability to mirror the nation.

If the nation goes for Romney, then Ohio will go for Romney.

IF Obama is rolling then Ohio will be rolling along with Obama.

If it’s close nationally, then it’ll be close in Ohio.

Ohio is almost a perfect cross-section that mirrors America at large. It is 4 large statistical areas, a lot of small city/town/village and a large section of rural. Two of the largest statistical areas, Cleveland and Toledo, are bastions of rust-era unionism and minority enclaves. Cincinnati and Columbus were more union resistant, so their inner cities tend democratic but the counties surrounding are conservative.

The rural/small town tend to be conservative.


69 posted on 10/24/2012 8:00:32 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

I’m in Portage county Ohio which went to Obama in 08 (53/44). We are getting an average of 2 to 4 calls a day from Romney/RNC. On top of this, we get a couple of daily calls from the Portage County Tea Party. Damn phone never stops ringing. We’re also getting a couple automated polling calls a week. We have received zero calls from Obama/DNC. Sign wise there are very few Obama signs. I remember those in my neighborhood who had them in 08 and very few have signs up this year. No doubt about it, Romney signs and empty chairs surpass Obama signs by a substantial margin.


70 posted on 10/24/2012 8:02:14 AM PDT by Gorilla44
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To: rwfromkansas

Ohio and Michigan benefitted the most from the auto bailout and Obama’s advertising apparently has pressed that hard. That unique event could stop Ohio from mirroring the nation so closely this time.

I think if the election is close, Romney loses Ohio. If he wins every other 2004 Bush state except New Mexico, it’s a 269-269 tie (this includes Nevada and Iowa for Romney). If Romney can flip New Hampshire or the 1 Maine EV over to his side, then he can break the tie.


71 posted on 10/24/2012 8:14:47 AM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

I just called the Portage county RNC to make sure they still had signs available so I could pick one up. A pleasant lady answered telling me they had as many as I needed. Out of curiosity, I called the DNC to see if they had signs available and it went to an answering machine “No one available to take my call”. I’m still wondering if the lack of Obama signs in the area is due to a bad ground game or are people too embarrassed to put one in their yard.


72 posted on 10/24/2012 8:43:46 AM PDT by Gorilla44
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To: AuH2ORepublican; Perdogg; tatown; SoftwareEngineer; LS; Ravi; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; GOPsterinMA; ...

Ohio remains very iffy, even though Obama has lost ground there. IMHO, Republicans need to make a play for Pennsylvania, as Obama has really slipped in the Philadephia suburbs recently.


73 posted on 10/24/2012 12:00:15 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Muslims are a people of tolerance, life,and peace, and if you don't agree, they'll murder you)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Somebody’s going to call you a troll.


74 posted on 10/24/2012 12:44:08 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: Palmetto Patriot; LS; Jeff Head

More info on Ohio from today’s post by Bill Spetrino (he says Mitt is ahead significantly there:

“It’s all over but the Crying”

http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/10/24/crying/


75 posted on 10/24/2012 1:02:02 PM PDT by patriot453 (Barack Obama: the best thing that ever happened to the Republican Party)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Has there been any poll in *any* state during the election cycle that has the independents breaking for Obama? This would be the first.


76 posted on 10/24/2012 2:41:37 PM PDT by RightWingNilla
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To: SoftwareEngineer

53% women seems a little high.


77 posted on 10/24/2012 2:56:21 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: patriot453

I hope that guy knows what he’s talking about.


78 posted on 10/24/2012 3:03:26 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: Clintonfatigued

Romney just opened some offices in PA last week I believe.


79 posted on 10/25/2012 8:26:00 AM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: lasereye

“Somebody’s going to call you a troll.”

I don’t see why. Obama could win Ohio and still lose the election.


80 posted on 10/25/2012 11:45:58 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Muslims are a people of tolerance, life,and peace, and if you don't agree, they'll murder you)
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To: Clintonfatigued

I suggested on another thread that shifting of resources into PA by the Romney campaign wasn’t because they’ve got OH locked up and were going for a bigger win, as someone suggested, but because they need more ways to win in case they don’t carry OH. Somebody kept dogging me throughout the rest of the thread saying I was a troll.


81 posted on 10/26/2012 5:47:38 AM PDT by lasereye
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