I posted the same thing a couple days ago. There's no way to reconcile Rasmussen's individual state polls with his aggregate swing state tracking poll. I created a spreadsheet with 2008 voting totals and adjusted the allocation of votes to reflect his state tracking polls, and when you sum all those you get a dead heat across the 11 states. Theoretically it could be due to higher turnout in Romney-leaing states / lower turnout in Obama leaning states, but the turnout would have to change dramatically in order to account for the difference.
I can only assume he's employing a different turnout model for his aggregate swing state tracking poll than for his state polls.
Lion, yours is as good a supposition as any to explain the inconsistency in the two polls from Ras. Whatever the truth, we do KNOW beyond doubt that Ras is doing whatever he wants with these numbers and not telling us what it is. Adjusting them - as you point out - in DIFFERING ways for whatever reason.
posted on 10/24/2012 7:14:39 AM PDT
("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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