Yeah, the internals trouble me greatly about this poll.
Actually MANY things:
1. Small sample size: 750. I prefer 1000+ for accurate samples
2. Higher R than D
3. More females than males (probably counteracts point 2)
4. The President leads with independents
5. Gov Romney leads only by 5 among males
6. Trails by 7 with those voters with children at home
I really hope this is an outlier. For a sample like this, Gov Romney should be 4-5 ahead
I agree. I have been dying to see a poll that showed a R+1 (or even) sample and here it is. And yet it is not great for Romney.
Like you stated, a sample like this you would think would show a Romney lead of a few points.
If the CBS/Q poll out today is Obama up 5 with a D+3-4 sample then Obama clearly has the edge in Ohio.
I still say, if Romney maintains his 3-4-5 point lead in Rasmussen and Gallup, then he will win the electoral college fairly easily. Only if the national vote is within 1 point then would the EV come into play.
Has there been any poll in *any* state during the election cycle that has the independents breaking for Obama? This would be the first.