Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

SurveyUSA Ohio Poll 47%O 44%R (Internals are devastating for Obama)
SurveyUSA ^ | 10/23/2012 | SurveyUSA

Posted on 10/24/2012 7:10:07 AM PDT by apillar

In an election in Ohio today for President of the United States, Barack Obama remains where he has been for the past 2 SurveyUSA weekly tracking polls -- ever-so-slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the battle for the Buckeye State's 18 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. 15 days until votes are counted, it's Obama 47%, Romney 44%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 week ago, Obama and Romney are both up 2 points. Obama led by 3 points last week, leads by 3 points today.

(Excerpt) Read more at surveyusa.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; polls; surveyusa
At first glance this poll seems to be good new for Obama...until you look at the internals. Romney is winning Ohio independents by 8 points 47%R to 39%O. But more amazing is that Obama is only getting 70% of the black vote with 22% going for Romney. Then there is the union vote, Obama is only ahead by 7% and under 50% at 49%O 42%R (so much for the auto bailout locking down the autoworker vote). These numbers are devastating for Obama. There is no way he can win Ohio or nationally with only a 7% advantage among union voters and 70% of the black vote. As for the fact Obama is still being ahead by 3% with such horrible internals. Well it's a cooked poll that massively undersampled independents and oversampled democrats (39D/32R/25I).
1 posted on 10/24/2012 7:10:10 AM PDT by apillar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: apillar

“Well it’s a cooked poll that massively undersampled independents and oversampled democrats (39D/32R/25I).”

Does anyone know the 2008 and 2004 turnout numbers by party in Ohio?


2 posted on 10/24/2012 7:13:19 AM PDT by edwinland
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: apillar

I see the poll is very off when you look at the internals but still, I just wanna see ONE POLL with Romney ahead in OH to feel a little better.

:sighs:


3 posted on 10/24/2012 7:13:42 AM PDT by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: apillar

Black vote is shocking. Obama is history if that happens.


4 posted on 10/24/2012 7:13:56 AM PDT by TigerClaws
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: apillar

There NEVER was any way Obama was going to win this thing.

THe notion the Rust Belt was going to be a firewall for Obama was idiotic at best.

Obama spent 4 years pissing in the face of blue dogs, which make their homes in the south and the rust belt. He didn’t give a crap about working class whites and actively destroyed the coal industry... etc etc. So much so that polling shows a full 20% of working class white democratic voters are openly stating they will be voting for Romney... Working class whites are 60% of the democratic base, the idea you can treat them like crap for 4 years and expect to be re-elected is nonsense.

Then you attack the catholic church???? Not smart, there are lot of Catholics in the rust belt as well.

The notion Ohio is neck and neck I am not and have never bought. I think Romney takes Ohio by at least 4 points. He’ll also take IA, IN and WI as well.. MI and PA are also outside possible wins for Romney as well. Only states in the rust belt I think Obama can remotely call “safe” are MN and IL.

I still think Obama won’t pull over 42-43% max on election day.


5 posted on 10/24/2012 7:15:04 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: apillar
Obama is only getting 70% of the black vote with 22% going for Romney.

That, simply is not believable.

6 posted on 10/24/2012 7:16:27 AM PDT by Holly_P
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: edwinland

This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).


7 posted on 10/24/2012 7:20:43 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P

Agreed.

Thus, the whole poll is suspect...


8 posted on 10/24/2012 7:22:36 AM PDT by jonno (Having an opinion is not the same as having the answer...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Thanks.


9 posted on 10/24/2012 7:24:11 AM PDT by edwinland
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: apillar

An incumbent at 47% w/ 2 weeks to go = doom.


10 posted on 10/24/2012 7:24:11 AM PDT by The G Man (The NY Times did "great harm to the United States" - President George W. Bush 6/26/06)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: HamiltonJay

O is hemorrhaging among key demographics - the cooked polls I don’t buy.

With internals like that, he won’t win any state in the Midwest (apart from MN and IL) and he won’t win PA.

I think that an 8 to 10 point national win for Romney is pretty realistic.

All the “tied” polls are optical illusions now. In reality, in each of those states, Romney is well ahead.

O isn’t going to win this year, not with the kind of numbers he’s getting.


11 posted on 10/24/2012 7:24:11 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

From your lips...!!


12 posted on 10/24/2012 7:27:04 AM PDT by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
I see the poll is very off when you look at the internals but still, I just wanna see ONE POLL with Romney ahead in OH to feel a little better. :sighs:


13 posted on 10/24/2012 7:27:08 AM PDT by pburgh01
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
I see the poll is very off when you look at the internals but still, I just wanna see ONE POLL with Romney ahead in OH to feel a little better.

If Romney is shown to be ahead in Ohio, the fat lady has sung, viewership/readership goes down, as do the ad dollars that come with it. There is no way the media complex is going to abandon their "horse race" story, no matter what the real situation is.

14 posted on 10/24/2012 7:28:31 AM PDT by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: pburgh01

Whatca’ got for me? I don’t see anything.


15 posted on 10/24/2012 7:28:58 AM PDT by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P

Just for consideration and discussion, what part does the Black Church membership disgust at Obama’s outward support for gay marriage have?


16 posted on 10/24/2012 7:35:11 AM PDT by GreenAccord (Bacon Akbar)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: apillar
Today's RCP election map is an illustration of how much affirmative action has influenced the country. In a country where it is widely recognized that the President is failing in all disciplines and the majority of the nation feels Romney can do a better job, half our citizens are willing to vote for reelection because of race.
17 posted on 10/24/2012 7:35:49 AM PDT by Baynative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: apillar

Obviously would prefer to see Romney ahead, but Obama stuck at 47% is definitely encouraging.

We need another Romney surge there at the end to pull this one off. I pray that one is coming.


18 posted on 10/24/2012 7:35:49 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws

There’s simply no way that data on the AA vote is correct. Remeber its a small sample size on any of these sub-demographics, so the margin of error rises hugely.


19 posted on 10/24/2012 7:36:43 AM PDT by babble-on
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: kevkrom

Ding Ding Ding!!! We have a winner!!!! Johnny tell him what he has won....


20 posted on 10/24/2012 7:38:19 AM PDT by Anti-Hillary (Barry, Barry quite contrary, how does your government grow?...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: edwinland

The 2010 exit polls were:

Senate: 36 Dim, 37 GOP, 28 Independent
Govenor: 36 Dim, 36 GOP, 28 Independent


21 posted on 10/24/2012 7:41:45 AM PDT by JLS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: GreenAccord
Just for consideration and discussion, what part does the Black Church membership disgust at Obama’s outward support for gay marriage have?

About the same as Obama's support for abortion, Obama's black unemployment problem and probably many other policies of Obama but when push comes to shove, Obama's still black and 22% of blacks aren't going to vote for the white guy anywhere in the 57 states.

22 posted on 10/24/2012 7:42:56 AM PDT by Holly_P
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P

yes it is believeable unless you think ALL black people are stupid enough to vote for a proven incompetant boob, just because he is black

I know two close black friends who are EMBARRASSED about Obama and who will be voting Romney. I had to tell them that he is NOT a reflection on ‘all blacks’ (unless they all vote for him again)


23 posted on 10/24/2012 7:51:16 AM PDT by Mr. K ("The only thing the World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P

I think that this election,you may be incorrect.That is my hope.


24 posted on 10/24/2012 7:51:32 AM PDT by georgia peach (georgia peach)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P

That’s the only demographic figure I don’t believe.

Mitt Happens will be lucky to get 10% of the black vote - Obama will get 90% - less than his 2008 figure of 95% but still a margin he’ll never get with other segments of the electorate.


25 posted on 10/24/2012 7:53:57 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
I see the poll is very off when you look at the internals but still, I just wanna see ONE POLL with Romney ahead in OH to feel a little better.

Exactly. The internals don't matter that much. People may prefer Romney when asked specific questions but will vote Obama for nebulous reasons as reflected in this polling. People are not rational actors.

Romney seems to need Ohio, hopefully Ohio can be delivered in spite of its better than average recovery.

26 posted on 10/24/2012 7:54:38 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Osama's dead... and so is our ambassador - Coulter.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: apillar; KC_Conspirator

I don’t trust this poll. Any poll that gives Obama only 70% of the black vote and still ends up with Obama up 3 is somehow broken. I don’t have time to analyze the poll, but that alone is all I need.

Rasmussen and Suffolk Univ. are probably right about Ohio. It’s a tie.


27 posted on 10/24/2012 8:05:44 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P

I think the gay marriage angle may in fact depress black turnout to some extent. They won’t vote for Romney, but some who voted in 2008 may not show up this time.


28 posted on 10/24/2012 8:05:44 AM PDT by babble-on
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: apillar

Obama is getting the “anti-cowboy” vote, the anti-reagan vote, the anti-captalism vote, the anti-profit vote, the anti-family vote, the anti-marriage vote, the anti-husband vote, the anti-’get a job’ vote.

IOW obama is the candidate for the “anti-”


29 posted on 10/24/2012 8:07:27 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: newzjunkey

The media just simply will not show Romney leading Ohio until the very, very end. They have way too much hope invested into this meme that they can win if they win Ohio. Democrats have become so obsessed with this strategy/story or whatever one wants to call it of Ohio that they can’t let it go.

I have almost humorously wanted if I could figure out how to create a map that the MSM would produce in which the whole country is red except Ohio which would be blue.


30 posted on 10/24/2012 8:07:56 AM PDT by ctpsb (Thanks.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: apillar
I don’t think Ohio will be deciding factor. With Ohio, Romney will get 300+, without 280+.
31 posted on 10/24/2012 8:08:32 AM PDT by tobyhill (Obamacare, the final nail in the US coffin.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: apillar

I guess the public schools have done their job> 47% for Obama????

The hippy/commies in the 70s were right when they said it would take about 50 years to indoctrinate and they did it!

It’s shocking that so many people in this country would vote for that liar! I have some in my own family and it saddens me!


32 posted on 10/24/2012 8:09:16 AM PDT by notaliberal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
"I think that an 8 to 10 point national win for Romney is pretty realistic."

That's what it 'feels' like and I was pretty close with my instincts in the last 20 years And I dont think they can 'manufacture' 7% votes to overcome. They have tyo invent votes in city districts- for example in NY state there are 4 main cities that swing the entire state, out of some 18 (i think) major areas. That means they would have to have enough dead people voting in those 4 areas to offset A 7% DEFICIT in other places in the state There are some places where turnout was 100% (or more) in the Al Gore debacle, but that came down to a couple of votes. I dont think anyone will be sitting still and taking it if the turnout is 120% in some of these districts, which is what he will have to do in order to overcome a 7% deficit. Am I making any sense? BOTTOM LINE: There is not enough dead people voting to overcome what seems to be a Romney +7 race.

33 posted on 10/24/2012 8:25:40 AM PDT by Mr. K ("The only thing the World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: ctpsb
Survey USA is not a shill for the media. It is one of the better polling firms out there when it comes to state polls. Not to mention this is not all that far off from every other Ohio poll out there now. Romney just can't break through there. But if he does, it's game over for Obama.

Not to mention, check out the Senate numbers: "An election today for United States Senator from Ohio is too-close-to-call. Democrat Sherrod Brown today is at 43%, Republican Josh Mandel is at 42%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago, Brown is flat, Mandel is up 4 points. Brown had led by 5, now leads by 1."

34 posted on 10/24/2012 8:33:39 AM PDT by paul544
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: apillar
I've been on FR for over 12 years (diff. accounts). Every election, the polls are deemed totally off, and every year they are within a few points almost always the margin of error is pro-democrat. Too many here dismiss the polls or assume the margin of error is 10 points. If you give Romney 2 pts it's 45-O, 46-R, so Romney may very well win Ohio.

Personally I want to see a nationwide blowout and bask in the wailing of liberals for a few years. It will likely be a close call with Romney on top and 4 years of leftists blaming voter fraud, tainted voting machines or the Supreme Court (because they will sue anywhere its close).

35 posted on 10/24/2012 8:42:54 AM PDT by douginthearmy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: edwinland

                   Party ID in Ohio according to exit polls

2004 Bush    Kerry    GOP     Dem      Indy
     50.8    48.7     40      35       25

2008 McCain  Obama    
     46.9    51.5     31      39       30

Kasich (R) defeated Strickland (D) by 49% - 47% in 2010 in the Tea Party wave election. I could not locate exit poll party ID for that election.
36 posted on 10/24/2012 10:17:32 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: kevkrom

Bingo...I think you hit the nail on the head. I’ve been thinking the same.


37 posted on 10/24/2012 11:02:32 AM PDT by mandaladon (Hit the road Obama!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: HamiltonJay

Monday, my husband caught part of a radio news article to the effect that there are active indictments and convictions (?) ongoing in MN in regard to the Franken election. We get MN and IA news here as part of a Tri State area.

Can anyone comment further on that? I would think if it is accurate, it will suppress the MN fraud.


38 posted on 10/24/2012 11:02:54 AM PDT by reformedliberal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
“Obama is only getting 70% of the black vote with 22% going for Romney.” This is entirely believable. In May 20% of Blacks in NC said they would vote for Romney as did 20% of Blacks in Georgia. A poll in Michigan in early Sept found 26% of Blacks would vote for Romney. An unreleased Florida NAACP poll (I know the source and it is good) said 26% of Florida Blacks would vote Romney. 70% for Obama from Blacks is very believable.
39 posted on 10/24/2012 2:20:05 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Mr. K
yes it is believeable unless you think ALL black people are stupid enough to vote for a proven incompetant boob, just because he is black

I don't think all black people are stupid, those are you words. Only the 90%, bare minimum of them who will vote for Obama.

I know two close black friends who are EMBARRASSED about Obama and who will be voting Romney.

Two? You gotta be joking. Like I said, 90% bare minimum.

40 posted on 10/24/2012 2:28:52 PM PDT by Holly_P
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Mr. K

Remember the Wall Street Journal poll a few weeks back that showed Romney getting 0% of black votes. Now, I don’t believe that. Romney may get 10% but I’d be shocked if he does.


41 posted on 10/24/2012 2:31:38 PM PDT by Holly_P
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: paul544

“SurveyUSA not a shill for the media” No but they’re not always right either. With their silly poll today showing Obama 7% (really?) ahead in Virginia when all other polls now show Romney ahead and the Hill story citing this poll even doubts its’ veracity :

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/263753-polls-obama-up-three-in-ohio-seven-in-virginia.

Also : http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/24/why-i-wont-blog-or-link-to-the-surveyusa-poll-with-obama-leading-by-3/

Also : http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2949378/posts

So while Romney is gaining everywhere else Ohio (the one state Obama needs) is the one state he’s not?


42 posted on 10/24/2012 3:14:32 PM PDT by ctpsb (Thanks.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: ctpsb

Wasn’t there a recent NV poll that showed Obama up by 3 from a tie last time?


43 posted on 10/24/2012 4:07:00 PM PDT by paul544
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

To: kevkrom

This is good. An old political axiom goes like this. No matter what is going on in an election you should run like you are 20 points down. These polls will positively cause every possible potential Romney vote to go to the polls. No body that detests this administration wants to wake up on the 89th, find out Obama is still potus, and know they didn’t do their part.


44 posted on 10/24/2012 7:36:49 PM PDT by ping jockey (Candy Crowley IS A DUMBASS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: HamiltonJay

He’ll get 46-47% unless there is a big development in his favor.


45 posted on 10/24/2012 7:41:25 PM PDT by Private_Sector_Does_It_Better (I AM ANDREW BREITBART)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson