Skip to comments.SurveyUSA Ohio Poll 47%O 44%R (Internals are devastating for Obama)
Posted on 10/24/2012 7:10:07 AM PDT by apillar
In an election in Ohio today for President of the United States, Barack Obama remains where he has been for the past 2 SurveyUSA weekly tracking polls -- ever-so-slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the battle for the Buckeye State's 18 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. 15 days until votes are counted, it's Obama 47%, Romney 44%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 week ago, Obama and Romney are both up 2 points. Obama led by 3 points last week, leads by 3 points today.
(Excerpt) Read more at surveyusa.com ...
“Well it’s a cooked poll that massively undersampled independents and oversampled democrats (39D/32R/25I).”
Does anyone know the 2008 and 2004 turnout numbers by party in Ohio?
I see the poll is very off when you look at the internals but still, I just wanna see ONE POLL with Romney ahead in OH to feel a little better.
Black vote is shocking. Obama is history if that happens.
There NEVER was any way Obama was going to win this thing.
THe notion the Rust Belt was going to be a firewall for Obama was idiotic at best.
Obama spent 4 years pissing in the face of blue dogs, which make their homes in the south and the rust belt. He didn’t give a crap about working class whites and actively destroyed the coal industry... etc etc. So much so that polling shows a full 20% of working class white democratic voters are openly stating they will be voting for Romney... Working class whites are 60% of the democratic base, the idea you can treat them like crap for 4 years and expect to be re-elected is nonsense.
Then you attack the catholic church???? Not smart, there are lot of Catholics in the rust belt as well.
The notion Ohio is neck and neck I am not and have never bought. I think Romney takes Ohio by at least 4 points. He’ll also take IA, IN and WI as well.. MI and PA are also outside possible wins for Romney as well. Only states in the rust belt I think Obama can remotely call “safe” are MN and IL.
I still think Obama won’t pull over 42-43% max on election day.
That, simply is not believable.
This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).
Thus, the whole poll is suspect...
An incumbent at 47% w/ 2 weeks to go = doom.
O is hemorrhaging among key demographics - the cooked polls I don’t buy.
With internals like that, he won’t win any state in the Midwest (apart from MN and IL) and he won’t win PA.
I think that an 8 to 10 point national win for Romney is pretty realistic.
All the “tied” polls are optical illusions now. In reality, in each of those states, Romney is well ahead.
O isn’t going to win this year, not with the kind of numbers he’s getting.
From your lips...!!
If Romney is shown to be ahead in Ohio, the fat lady has sung, viewership/readership goes down, as do the ad dollars that come with it. There is no way the media complex is going to abandon their "horse race" story, no matter what the real situation is.
Whatca’ got for me? I don’t see anything.
Just for consideration and discussion, what part does the Black Church membership disgust at Obama’s outward support for gay marriage have?
Obviously would prefer to see Romney ahead, but Obama stuck at 47% is definitely encouraging.
We need another Romney surge there at the end to pull this one off. I pray that one is coming.
There’s simply no way that data on the AA vote is correct. Remeber its a small sample size on any of these sub-demographics, so the margin of error rises hugely.
Ding Ding Ding!!! We have a winner!!!! Johnny tell him what he has won....
The 2010 exit polls were:
Senate: 36 Dim, 37 GOP, 28 Independent
Govenor: 36 Dim, 36 GOP, 28 Independent
About the same as Obama's support for abortion, Obama's black unemployment problem and probably many other policies of Obama but when push comes to shove, Obama's still black and 22% of blacks aren't going to vote for the white guy anywhere in the 57 states.
yes it is believeable unless you think ALL black people are stupid enough to vote for a proven incompetant boob, just because he is black
I know two close black friends who are EMBARRASSED about Obama and who will be voting Romney. I had to tell them that he is NOT a reflection on ‘all blacks’ (unless they all vote for him again)
I think that this election,you may be incorrect.That is my hope.
That’s the only demographic figure I don’t believe.
Mitt Happens will be lucky to get 10% of the black vote - Obama will get 90% - less than his 2008 figure of 95% but still a margin he’ll never get with other segments of the electorate.
Exactly. The internals don't matter that much. People may prefer Romney when asked specific questions but will vote Obama for nebulous reasons as reflected in this polling. People are not rational actors.
Romney seems to need Ohio, hopefully Ohio can be delivered in spite of its better than average recovery.
I don’t trust this poll. Any poll that gives Obama only 70% of the black vote and still ends up with Obama up 3 is somehow broken. I don’t have time to analyze the poll, but that alone is all I need.
Rasmussen and Suffolk Univ. are probably right about Ohio. It’s a tie.
I think the gay marriage angle may in fact depress black turnout to some extent. They won’t vote for Romney, but some who voted in 2008 may not show up this time.
Obama is getting the “anti-cowboy” vote, the anti-reagan vote, the anti-captalism vote, the anti-profit vote, the anti-family vote, the anti-marriage vote, the anti-husband vote, the anti-’get a job’ vote.
IOW obama is the candidate for the “anti-”
The media just simply will not show Romney leading Ohio until the very, very end. They have way too much hope invested into this meme that they can win if they win Ohio. Democrats have become so obsessed with this strategy/story or whatever one wants to call it of Ohio that they can’t let it go.
I have almost humorously wanted if I could figure out how to create a map that the MSM would produce in which the whole country is red except Ohio which would be blue.
I guess the public schools have done their job> 47% for Obama????
The hippy/commies in the 70s were right when they said it would take about 50 years to indoctrinate and they did it!
It’s shocking that so many people in this country would vote for that liar! I have some in my own family and it saddens me!
That's what it 'feels' like and I was pretty close with my instincts in the last 20 years And I dont think they can 'manufacture' 7% votes to overcome. They have tyo invent votes in city districts- for example in NY state there are 4 main cities that swing the entire state, out of some 18 (i think) major areas. That means they would have to have enough dead people voting in those 4 areas to offset A 7% DEFICIT in other places in the state There are some places where turnout was 100% (or more) in the Al Gore debacle, but that came down to a couple of votes. I dont think anyone will be sitting still and taking it if the turnout is 120% in some of these districts, which is what he will have to do in order to overcome a 7% deficit. Am I making any sense? BOTTOM LINE: There is not enough dead people voting to overcome what seems to be a Romney +7 race.
Not to mention, check out the Senate numbers: "An election today for United States Senator from Ohio is too-close-to-call. Democrat Sherrod Brown today is at 43%, Republican Josh Mandel is at 42%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago, Brown is flat, Mandel is up 4 points. Brown had led by 5, now leads by 1."
Personally I want to see a nationwide blowout and bask in the wailing of liberals for a few years. It will likely be a close call with Romney on top and 4 years of leftists blaming voter fraud, tainted voting machines or the Supreme Court (because they will sue anywhere its close).
Party ID in Ohio according to exit polls 2004 Bush Kerry GOP Dem Indy 50.8 48.7 40 35 25 2008 McCain Obama 46.9 51.5 31 39 30Kasich (R) defeated Strickland (D) by 49% - 47% in 2010 in the Tea Party wave election. I could not locate exit poll party ID for that election.
Bingo...I think you hit the nail on the head. I’ve been thinking the same.
Monday, my husband caught part of a radio news article to the effect that there are active indictments and convictions (?) ongoing in MN in regard to the Franken election. We get MN and IA news here as part of a Tri State area.
Can anyone comment further on that? I would think if it is accurate, it will suppress the MN fraud.
I don't think all black people are stupid, those are you words. Only the 90%, bare minimum of them who will vote for Obama.
I know two close black friends who are EMBARRASSED about Obama and who will be voting Romney.
Two? You gotta be joking. Like I said, 90% bare minimum.
Remember the Wall Street Journal poll a few weeks back that showed Romney getting 0% of black votes. Now, I don’t believe that. Romney may get 10% but I’d be shocked if he does.
“SurveyUSA not a shill for the media” No but they’re not always right either. With their silly poll today showing Obama 7% (really?) ahead in Virginia when all other polls now show Romney ahead and the Hill story citing this poll even doubts its’ veracity :
So while Romney is gaining everywhere else Ohio (the one state Obama needs) is the one state he’s not?
Wasn’t there a recent NV poll that showed Obama up by 3 from a tie last time?
This is good. An old political axiom goes like this. No matter what is going on in an election you should run like you are 20 points down. These polls will positively cause every possible potential Romney vote to go to the polls. No body that detests this administration wants to wake up on the 89th, find out Obama is still potus, and know they didn’t do their part.
He’ll get 46-47% unless there is a big development in his favor.