Posted on 10/24/2012 8:00:22 AM PDT by dirtboy
My first thought was that Rove has re-acquired the keys to the Weather Machine(TM).
No; it's a bit complicated to explain.
All of those tracks are from one model; the white is the "Operational" GFS; the other tracks are "ensemble" members - they are the same model but with the initial conditions "perturbed" a little bit. It's a bit of the "butterfly effect." We never actually know the true current weather conditions everywhere, so the perturbations show what happens if things start out slightly differently. The ensemble tracks show that actually it's probably more likely it curves back to hit the US, because most of them do, and that the "operational" track is probably less likely.
Our side gets out to vote under most any circumstance, where their side, not so much. I mean, they stay home just because the toilet overflows ;)
That slut Sandy is headed right for me!
It's sort of hard to fathom how people can generate such hatred of people they don't even know. All I can attribute it to is just blind hate of anyone smarter than you.
but the improvement in weather forecast accuracy that has taken place in the last 40 years is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. Hardly the work of "jerks."
The accuracy with hurricane track forecasting is pretty astounding when you consider the complexity of the atmosphere. and has shown steady, slow improvement for decades. Unfortunately intensity forecasting is still an unsolvable problem.
I’m trying to take out DC, but I’ll take special requests.
If it managed to flood all the streets in Philly on Nov. 6 I could make my peace with it...
But if there are widespread power outages, it could take a week or more to restore power.
Generally, the urban areas have their power restored first.
Worst case scenario: eastern PA gets hit hard. Union utility workers selectively restore power to heavy democrat areas first and take their time restoring power to purple/red areas, giving Obama the edge he needs to take PA.
ANYTIME you want to trade jobs, let me know. I would LOVE to work at a career where regaradless of my product, I was assured of a well-paying job.
Not to mention all those hot weather girls I would get to work with!!!
That path is representative of the GFS computer model, which the hurricane center has relied upon most as the basic for their track forecasts. However...that's also the model that is being questioned the most outside of the NHC due to specific "quirks" it has in resolving certain technical interactions between competing storms - which I'm not qualified to even attempt an explanation about.
Ennyhow... that's why the European weather model is being cited in the original post. Other models (as you see from that first map) are also jumping on board with the idea that this hurricane will be "captured" by the next approaching storm front. That scenario is now being seen as more likely than not. Even the NHC is now admitting that with this post on their most recent 'Discussion' page:
"OVERALL MORE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD."
...and they cited the Euro model as proof. So all interests in the US NE should keep a close eye on this.
However, he is more often correct than not when it comes to weather issues for DelMarVa - and is the first to admit when he is wrong.
I read it and compare it to figuring out how the election will turn out. It’s all up in the air!!
Post 28 shows the National Hurricane Center does not predict a US landfall of Sandy at this time.
Good morning! I was just about to ping you :-)
Yes..... I'm in VA.
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