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Could Sandy Target Northeast U.S.?
Weather Underground ^ | 10/24/2012 | Bryan Norcoss

Posted on 10/24/2012 8:00:22 AM PDT by dirtboy

Wow... what an extraordinarily unusual scenario. What seemed like a fluke of an idea - a hurricane-like system hitting the northeastern U.S. - is gaining credibility. Originally the European model was on its own with the spectacular but somewhat bizarre idea that Sandy would be injected with jet stream energy and curve back toward New England as a stunningly strong storm. Now one model after the other, including the ensembles, are favoring a swing back toward the East Coast after the storm goes by Cape Hatteras.

This the the afternoon run of the American GFS model ensembles - multiple lower-resolution runs with slightly different initial information, which allows for the fact that we can't measure the atmosphere precisely among other things.

The majority of the possible tracks now head into the Northeast, New England, or Atlantic Canada.

Could it really be a strong hurricane, as the European model predicts? We know that, occasionally, hurricanes do occur at these high latitudes at the end of October. Famously, the "Perfect Storm", otherwise known as the Halloween Hurricane battered New England in 1991. Also, Category 2 Hurricane Ginny hit Nova Scotia in late October 1963. But, neither were of a scale and impact like the Euro is showing.

With the influence of the jet stream, you would think any storm that comes ashore would be subtropical in nature - part tropical and part like a nor'easter - but the NHC doesn't allow for subtropical hurricanes in their naming scheme. It's considered to be such a rare and nearly impossible event.

The spectacularly unusual confluence of events is the shape and orientation of the dip in the jet stream that is forecast to develop over eastern North America over the weekend - oriented in such a way to pull Sandy inland instead of pushing it out to sea, and the presence of a strong tropical or subtropical system where it can get pulled in. That's so bizarrely unusual that I can't think of another event like it.

This kind of thing occasionally happens with nor'easters, notably the Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 which curved in off the Atlantic and dumped 20 to 30 inches of snow over a wide area in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, but the odds of it happening with a system that originated in the tropics - with all of the moisture that that implies - are extremely low.

We certainly don't know that it's going to happen, and our concern at the moment is for our friends in the Caribbean and the Bahamas who will take a direct hit from a strengthening hurricane. The Florida and Carolina coasts also need to be ready to take protective action - especially boaters and people right at the coast - depending on the track Thursday to Saturday. But it's not often that credible forecast models consistently forecast a historic event, and with more models leaning that way, we need to be aware and pay attention along the entire U.S. East Coast


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricanesandy; israel; sandy
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To: fatima

I’ll see what I can do for you. :-)


51 posted on 10/24/2012 8:43:40 AM PDT by SandyInSeattle (Eat Mor Chikin!)
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To: angcat
I sent hubby and email to go buy that generator we have been talking about.

By all means, get the generator.

During the Zombie Apocalypse it will be useful. I recommend a Tri-Fuel model as you won't have good supply of fuel at that time.

(During Hurricane Ike in Houston, getting gasoline became an issue after many area went nearly a week without electrical power. No electricity and the fuel pumps at the gas stations don't run)

52 posted on 10/24/2012 8:43:46 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: dirtboy

If you can vote early, do so now!!!


53 posted on 10/24/2012 8:44:26 AM PDT by steveyp
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To: thackney
Here's a graphic of the Euro model's projection for next Tuesday. Notice the 934 pressure level!!


54 posted on 10/24/2012 8:46:23 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: SandyInSeattle
I’m trying to take out DC, but I’ll take special requests.

While I truly appreciate your noble quest - you would have to go right over me to do so...........

55 posted on 10/24/2012 8:47:22 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
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To: Gabz

I’m mainland, more central, but with heavy wind/rain potential; however, bro in VB. We’re all paying close attention. Stay safe!


56 posted on 10/24/2012 8:47:35 AM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: alancarp

So even they still predict a ~100 mile distance from making landfall per your picture.

Also the original poster concern of Delaware at that point would have the winds driving water out of the Bay, not in.


57 posted on 10/24/2012 8:58:03 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: steveyp
Here let me second your comment:

If you can vote early, do so now!!!


58 posted on 10/24/2012 8:58:33 AM PDT by Perseverando (Gun control? It's the OBOTS who are filling up prisons for violent crimes, not the Tea Party.)
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To: thackney
Here's Bastardi's forecast track - direct hit on NYC:

We should know for sure about the "capture" scenario by around Friday/Sat.

59 posted on 10/24/2012 9:28:58 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: dirtboy

If it hits NYC on Tuesday, it’ll keep a lot of the libtards home.


60 posted on 10/24/2012 9:49:11 AM PDT by b4its2late (A Liberal is a person who will give away everything he doesn't own.)
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To: Strategerist; thackney; alancarp; NautiNurse
GFS (white track) is now taking it into New England. Other models are taking it into Jersey or Delaware.


61 posted on 10/24/2012 12:45:49 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: alancarp
Ouch


62 posted on 10/24/2012 12:50:35 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: alancarp

Thanks for that. I had not seen a prediction going onshore.

Too far away in time to have a lot of confidence in any of them.

Cheers


63 posted on 10/24/2012 12:56:24 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: dirtboy

Looks like this tells the tale.


64 posted on 10/24/2012 2:08:31 PM PDT by Theophilus (Not merely prolife, but prolific)
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To: GnL; All

With the latest modeling, I am very concerned this will be STRONG when it hits and give Obama a nice boost at the polls.

I am worried it could help him significantly.


65 posted on 10/24/2012 4:49:49 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas

I thought bad weather helped Republicans. It would make turnout look more like 2010, where the dedicated voters show up, not the fly-by-night types who only show up in presidential years.


66 posted on 10/24/2012 4:59:17 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: GnL
+1
67 posted on 10/24/2012 5:03:00 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: dirtboy
Here is the NY Times coverage of an earlier hurricane that hit the northeast the previous day. On image 4/4 there is a map that shows the track.

Long Island Express of September 22, 1938.

68 posted on 10/24/2012 5:07:22 PM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson ("Every nation has the government that it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: dirtboy

bkmk


69 posted on 10/24/2012 5:11:35 PM PDT by novemberslady
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To: Homer_J_Simpson
Some of the models are approaching insanity - a 925 mb low hitting NJ:


70 posted on 10/24/2012 5:37:58 PM PDT by dirtboy
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Still days away before it makes landfall. Is the Atlantic waters warm enough for strong intensification?

Less than Hurricane strength under this projection when it gets to the northeast.


71 posted on 10/24/2012 5:52:58 PM PDT by deport
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To: novemberslady

Pressure measured by Hurricane Hunter dropsonde was 964 mb, or on the edge of Cat 3.


72 posted on 10/24/2012 6:12:20 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy
Batten down the hatches.

I'll pray for a curve out to sea...
73 posted on 10/24/2012 6:51:54 PM PDT by novemberslady
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To: JediJones

That could.

I am talking about the “Obama rescuing us” non-stop TV coverage of the savior after the storm.

That said, the hurricane hitting New Orleans earlier in the fall surprisingly did not help Obama at all.


74 posted on 10/24/2012 6:55:22 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: MissMagnolia

Thanks for pointing out wxrisk. Never heard of it but now I’m hooked. Great facebook feed as well. He just posted why he thinks the GFS model is incorrect and pointed out its shortcomings. Very cool!!!


75 posted on 10/24/2012 9:21:11 PM PDT by colinhester
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To: colinhester

You’re welcome! Definitely keeping an eye on Sandy.


76 posted on 10/24/2012 10:13:54 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: dirtboy

bumpity bump


77 posted on 10/25/2012 4:53:15 AM PDT by WorkerbeeCitizen (we are so screwed - ^_^)
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To: deport
Nice to see both the GFS model and the NHC getting with the program. Not so nice to see that the NE could end up with a surprise monster storm. Here's a batch of Joe Bastardi tweets from early this morning:

@BigJoeBastardi
Hit from southeast reduces time over cool water.Baroclinic process leads to super hybrid. Even Brazilian models have 956 mb prs NYC
Weatherbell FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.. Have had the "trapping" idea now since weekend.
If I am right, biggest question :What swear word will Chris Christie use to get people to evacuate.Storm could be worse ever in mid/n atl
Dont forget the heavy snow on the western side.
If you see anyone talking about the storm surge up delaware bay, and flooding coming down .. that was the subject I wrote about many yrs ago
Window of escape closing.. only true question may be where not, if. All areas NC to Mass likely to have hurricane conditions!
GFDL brings hurricane to Delmarva.. sub 940 mb

He also has an updated forecast map with changes mostly confined to the snowfall portion: he's thinking possible heavy snows along the entire western side of the Appalachian chain... mentioned 2-3 feet in WV. Snow forecast area includes the western 50% of PA, western 30% of NY, eastern 70% of WV, and mountain areas of E. Tenn.

Otherwise still has NYC as the landfall point on Tuesday with an 80-85mph hurricane.

78 posted on 10/25/2012 6:41:04 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: NautiNurse

Hey, NN, want to start a Sandy live thread?


79 posted on 10/25/2012 6:47:15 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: Gabz
While I truly appreciate your noble quest - you would have to go right over me to do so...........

Hmm. I wouldn't want to take out any fine FReepers in my quest to annihilate DC. Maybe I'll just take out Cuba.

80 posted on 10/25/2012 8:00:03 AM PDT by SandyInSeattle (Eat Mor Chikin!)
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To: dirtboy

Darn, I thought it was next Tuesday. Wrong darn Tuesday.


81 posted on 10/25/2012 8:37:52 AM PDT by b4its2late (A Liberal is a person who will give away everything he doesn't own.)
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To: dirtboy
Hey, NN, want to start a Sandy live thread?

Hurricane Sandy

82 posted on 10/25/2012 8:57:55 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Barack Obama--you are the weakest link. Goodbye!)
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To: SandyInSeattle

ROFL!!!!!


83 posted on 10/25/2012 9:35:51 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
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To: Strategerist

Janice the weather lady on Fox News was saying people (potentially millions, IIRC) could be without power for WEEKS. It will be interesting to see how the election works if this comes to pass.


84 posted on 10/25/2012 8:52:31 PM PDT by PghBaldy (Obama in a binder!!!)
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