Skip to comments.Electoral Map Based on Intrade Data
Posted on 10/24/2012 12:45:59 PM PDT by DoctorBulldog
The latest electoral map using Intrade's data shows Romney with 275 electoral votes to Obama's 263 electoral votes.
It is likely that Romney also knew the e-mail scandal was about to be released and he didn't have to worry about Libya.
The biggest surprise this week is the release of the e-mails and the fact that many of the MSM are talking about it. That is the curiosity.
LOL! Yes! Well OK then...
COME ON NEW MEXICO... get with it
Seriously you folks are suicidal
I think it’s a lost cause. I was in New Mexico last week. I only saw one Romney sign, many OBAMANOS bumper stickers.
It is just a curiosity. No one is really “obsessed” with it.
Well, this is the way it was explained to me—and, hopefully, I am remembering the explanation correctly:
The Intrade map is using data gleaned from the number of bets coming from each individual state for Romney, or for Obama. As you can see, Romney is clearly ahead in the number of individual states which are betting on him.
However, Intrade’s bet percentages, which you are citing, are based upon the aggregate number of bets, in total, throughout the ENTIRETY of the United States.
Therefore, hypothetically, if 10 states have +10,000 bets each (net) coming in for Obama, and 40 other states have +2,000 bets (net) each coming in for Romney, the number of bets for Obama lead the number of bets for Romney by +20,000, even though Romney has the majority of states betting on him to win.
10 x 10,000 = 100,000
40 x 2,000 = 80,000
100,000 - 80,000 = 20,000
Anyway, as best as I can recall, that’s the way it was described to me years ago by one of my readers who places bets on Intrade.
I have just noticed a lot of threads on InTrade.
I find that vodka, vermouth, 4 olives, ice and a slice of lemon is also good.
Not a bad idea.
I wonder if Kenya would take Obama?
That would be just far enough away from us.
I respectfully disagree, just barely. Romney doesn't need N.H. He also needs more than just OH and one.
Based on 2008 results, Romney needs, in order of easiest pick-ups by percentage: NC, In, Fl, Oh, Va, Co. That gives him 275. This is exactly what the in-trade map shows and these are the easiest states (and the minimum needed) to pick-up based on percentage swing from 2008. Of course Romney must hold on to Mo., which McCain won by 0.13%. Should Romney lose that, the easiest states for him to pick up to make up the difference, are Iowa and N. H. Under that scenario you are more accurate.
i’m joinin’ the many who count NC, In, Fl, Va in the Romney column. Leaving OH and one other necessary.
The state markets on Intrade were very thinly traded until about mid-September of this year.
Keep up the great work!
“I was in New Mexico last week. I only saw one Romney sign, many OBAMANOS bumper stickers.”
You must have been in the northern part of the state (north of Roswell).
We are another state that could use a good split. Two different worlds in the same state. Unfortunately, Albuquerque “out-numbers” us.
Stephen, a recent poll disclosed that Obozo’s popularity among KENYANS has sunk to new lows.
Seems they won’t take him either.
Not necessarily. A candidate may have a better than 50% chance of winning in every state, and yet still have a less than 50% chance of winning an election. For example, suppose there were three equal-sized states X, Y, and Z. Fred has a 40% chance of winning all three states, a 20% chance of winning only X, a 20% chance of winning only Y, and a 20% chance of winning only Z. Fred would have a 60% chance of winning X, and a 60% chance of winning Y, and a 60% chance of winning Z, but only a 40% chance of winning at least two of the three.
Wow. Am I reading that right, is it minus 180 to plus 150, or just 180 to 150?
That make sense. Darn it! ;^)