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Electoral Map Based on Intrade Data
ElectoralMap.net ^ | 10/24/2012 | Self

Posted on 10/24/2012 12:45:59 PM PDT by DoctorBulldog

The latest electoral map using Intrade's data shows Romney with 275 electoral votes to Obama's 263 electoral votes.





TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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To: Dick Bachert

Not a bad idea.

I wonder if Kenya would take Obama?

That would be just far enough away from us.


51 posted on 10/24/2012 3:24:34 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ((God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.))
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To: campaignPete R-CT
Deciders are OH and NH. (OH and any one other)

I respectfully disagree, just barely. Romney doesn't need N.H. He also needs more than just OH and one.

Based on 2008 results, Romney needs, in order of easiest pick-ups by percentage: NC, In, Fl, Oh, Va, Co. That gives him 275. This is exactly what the in-trade map shows and these are the easiest states (and the minimum needed) to pick-up based on percentage swing from 2008. Of course Romney must hold on to Mo., which McCain won by 0.13%. Should Romney lose that, the easiest states for him to pick up to make up the difference, are Iowa and N. H. Under that scenario you are more accurate.

52 posted on 10/24/2012 3:29:20 PM PDT by Founding Father (The Pedophile moHAMmudd (PBUH---Pigblood be upon him))
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To: Founding Father

i’m joinin’ the many who count NC, In, Fl, Va in the Romney column. Leaving OH and one other necessary.


53 posted on 10/24/2012 3:39:52 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT (campaigning for local conservatives)
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To: DoctorBulldog
Great post!

I did this in 2004 and 2008.

The state markets on Intrade were very thinly traded until about mid-September of this year.

Keep up the great work!

54 posted on 10/24/2012 3:45:28 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: DoctorBulldog
THAT'S what I'm talkin' about. You betcha!
55 posted on 10/24/2012 4:17:36 PM PDT by DallasDeb
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To: jaydubya2

“I was in New Mexico last week. I only saw one Romney sign, many OBAMANOS bumper stickers.”

You must have been in the northern part of the state (north of Roswell).

We are another state that could use a good split. Two different worlds in the same state. Unfortunately, Albuquerque “out-numbers” us.


56 posted on 10/24/2012 7:31:52 PM PDT by BlessingsofLiberty (Remember Brian Terry...)
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To: stephenjohnbanker

Stephen, a recent poll disclosed that Obozo’s popularity among KENYANS has sunk to new lows.
Seems they won’t take him either.


57 posted on 10/24/2012 8:14:37 PM PDT by Dick Bachert (Obama for president -- of KENYA!)
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To: Wyatt's Torch
Exactly. Long Romney states and short Obama would do it.

Not necessarily. A candidate may have a better than 50% chance of winning in every state, and yet still have a less than 50% chance of winning an election. For example, suppose there were three equal-sized states X, Y, and Z. Fred has a 40% chance of winning all three states, a 20% chance of winning only X, a 20% chance of winning only Y, and a 20% chance of winning only Z. Fred would have a 60% chance of winning X, and a 60% chance of winning Y, and a 60% chance of winning Z, but only a 40% chance of winning at least two of the three.

58 posted on 10/24/2012 9:19:26 PM PDT by supercat (Renounce Covetousness.)
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To: bestrongbpositive

Wow. Am I reading that right, is it minus 180 to plus 150, or just 180 to 150?


59 posted on 10/24/2012 10:07:41 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Obama's myth is oozing out onto the floor. He's the political Lance Armstrong.)
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To: DoctorBulldog

That make sense. Darn it! ;^)


60 posted on 10/24/2012 10:10:23 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Obama's myth is oozing out onto the floor. He's the political Lance Armstrong.)
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To: BlessingsofLiberty

You’re correct, I was in the Albuquerque, Santa Fe area.


61 posted on 10/25/2012 5:19:43 AM PDT by jaydubya2
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To: DoughtyOne

Minus 180 if you bet Obama, plus 150 if you bet Romney.

I don’t like it but it has come down. It has been favoring Obama all along and has been much higher.

sports-gambling.com

I’m not promoting gambling here, just stating facts.


62 posted on 10/25/2012 6:30:09 AM PDT by bestrongbpositive
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To: Dick Bachert

” Stephen, a recent poll disclosed that Obozo’s popularity among KENYANS has sunk to new lows.
Seems they won’t take him either.”

Could we try Hugo Chavez ?


63 posted on 10/25/2012 8:10:23 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ((God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.))
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To: bestrongbpositive

Thanks. I hadn’t heard of that forum before, so I appreciate the explanation.

Intrade is moving Obama back up today.

60/40? I’m not believing that...


64 posted on 10/25/2012 10:02:50 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Obama's myth is oozing out onto the floor. He's the political Lance Armstrong.)
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To: DoughtyOne

Today the odds at Sports-Gambling are Obama minus 210, Romney plus 175.


65 posted on 10/26/2012 6:00:31 AM PDT by bestrongbpositive
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To: bestrongbpositive

Damn those odds suck. That being said I like to go with the underdog.


66 posted on 10/26/2012 6:04:57 AM PDT by JerseyDvl (Cogito Ergo Doleo Soetoro, ABO and of course FUBO!)
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To: bestrongbpositive

Thanks. I noticed Intrade has Obama at 63.4% and Romney at 37.5% this morning.

I’m not sure what these folks are smoking, but it seems like it’s eating their head from the inside out.

I don’t know what to make of it. I don’t think it’s accurate, but then who knows.


67 posted on 10/26/2012 7:31:46 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Obama's myth is oozing out onto the floor. He's the political Lance Armstrong.)
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To: bestrongbpositive

BTW: Since the first of the week, Obama started around where he is now and fell by 7% or so. Now he’s back up. Strange.


68 posted on 10/26/2012 7:33:37 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Obama's myth is oozing out onto the floor. He's the political Lance Armstrong.)
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To: DoughtyOne

Interesting that today SG has completly removed the odds on the Presidential race.. It may be that they figure the odds have moved in Romney’s favor and they don’t want to chance being caught in the middle.


69 posted on 10/29/2012 8:51:51 AM PDT by bestrongbpositive
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