Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Romney 261, Obama 253
Posted on 10/24/2012 1:10:39 PM PDT by nhwingut
State-by-state polling by Rasmussen Reports now shows Mitt Romney narrowly leading President Obama in the projected tally of electoral votes 261 to 253. Of the nine key swing states, Rasmussens polling (all conducted during the past week except for in Pennsylvania) shows Romney ahead in Florida (by 5 percentage points), Virginia (by 3 points), Colorado (by 4 points), and New Hampshire (by 2 points). It shows Obama ahead in Pennsylvania (by 5 points), Wisconsin (by 2 points), and Nevada (by 2 points). It shows Ohio and Iowa tied.
I have it at 257 Romney, 237 Obama.
Up for grabs: IA (6), OH (18), NV (6), NH (4), WI (10).
Agree...I think Romney wins NH as well...of the 4 polls on RCP right now, Romney is up in three of them, the only poll Obama has he is up on Romney +9....outlier poll...
What about Maine’s 2nd District?
Where does Ras put NC?
Agreed. Being on the ground here in NH, this state is lean Romney right now. If he can take Wisconsin (with their GOTV strong and proven with Walker Race), Romney has path without Ohio. Wisonsin and NH would be the EVs to put him over top. Or any combo of Wisconsin and NV/NH/IA.
Gee my thinking is going from, will he win, to - will he deliver when he wins.
I read somewhere today that they are making a concerted effort for Maine’s 2nd.
Because if they can’t get WI or OH, they could still patch together NV (6), IA (6) and ME-2 (1) for 13 EVs, putting them at 270 exactly.
Romney is up 6 in NC and is now considered firmly in Romney’s column.
After the latest news, I give them all to Romney except maybe OHIO.
I still believe Michigan goes to Romney.
12 days to go...gonna be the longest 12 days since the 80 elections.
NC goes for RR
NC goes for RR
I think NV is a lost cause because of the service unions.
But Obama has been unable to hit 50%. We’ll see.
I agree with your assumption of 257. Now, if that’s the case, Romney has at least three paths to cover the rest 13 EV:
1. OH (18)
3. WI(10)+ NH(4)
Note that each of the option is mutually exclusive from the others. Each shows RR needs to work very hard.
As a Wisconsin resident, I am getting more and more confident that Zero will lose here.
I can hardly wait to hear the wailing from the Obots.
That could really be WI and any other full state.
Also note if he gets option 2 without ME’s vote, it’s a 269-269 tie. Which means Romney will be voted in as prez by the House easily but Biden could be voted in as V.P. by the Senate. Good thing Romney said he liked bipartisanship.
That “tie” scenario is also identical to the 2004 results except giving the Dems NM and OH.
NV has 7% Mormons, one of the top 5 Mormon states in the nation. Isn’t it possible their turnout could be being underestimated and they could give Romney the edge? Keeping in mind NV also went Republican in both Bush Jr. elections.
The local news here in Maine an hour ago mentioned that Team Romney will start ad buys here in Maine. The Romney people are trying to take the entire state.....in lieu of that, they hope to win at least the 2nd congressional district.
An added bonus of TV ads in Maine....some of those ads will be seen in parts of New Hampshire.
So far, I haven’t seen any Obama ads since the Olympics last August and only one Romney ad (on October 1st). I also saw Romney ads during the Olympics.
If NV is a lost cause as some have suggested, then IA(6), NH(4), and ME(1) leaves Romney one EV short of a tie (270-268). Romney really needs one of OH or WI to make it work without NV.
If it truly is this close now, we will lose the 2016 election and this country will be toast until collapse.
PA didn’t like that ‘bitter clinger’ comment - but we’ll see...
Considering the beating that Las Vegas has taken under Obama, I can’t imagine why any Nevada voter would opt for four more years of this. Are they just assuming that no matter how the vote goes, the Teamsters will pull enough stuffed ballot boxes out of the trunks of Lincoln Continentals to win it for Obama?
Either that or PA. From what I understand the only thing that might have changed in NV is a higher Hispanic population since Bush won it both times.
NV has also voted with the winner of the presidential election every time since 1980. I’m not sure why it would be written off now.