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"Interesting polling numbers from Ohio" (article @ unskewedpolls.com - why not to fear for OHIO)
unskewedpolls.com ^ | Oct 24 2012 | DEAN CHAMBERS

Posted on 10/24/2012 4:14:38 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr

This is a good article & summary, posted TODAY, for people:
1. Freaking Out about Ohio polls that are slow to move ...
2. Summary of Ras, SurveyUSA, Gravis & Soffolk latest OH polls...
3. Explanation of why OHIO is not as easy to unskew
4. If the election were held today, RR wins.
to comply with excerpt rules: unskewedpolls.com examiner.com

(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: election; polls; skew
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This is a good article & review, posted TODAY, for people:
1. Freaking Out about Ohio polls that are slow to move ...
2. Summary of Ras, SurveyUSA, Gravis & Soffolk latest OH polls...
3. Explanation of why OHIO is not as easy to unskew
4. If the election were held today, RR wins.

1 posted on 10/24/2012 4:14:46 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Actually it’s at examiner, not unskewedpolls ...


2 posted on 10/24/2012 4:18:31 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

O’Bummer is sooooo skewed! ;)


3 posted on 10/24/2012 4:21:00 PM PDT by ImProudToBeAnAmerican (REMEMBER CHIK-FIL-A!)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

I know I’ve seen some great break downs of early voting on Free Republic, and it makes me very confident.

Are the Democratic mouthpieces and liberal blogs just lying when they state Obama is destroying Romney in the early vote???


4 posted on 10/24/2012 4:38:34 PM PDT by HawkHogan
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

I have a family member who has come from Cali.fornia to this state (OH) to specifically work for the zero campaign, will be here through 11/7.

Her fi.ance is an attorney and he is coming to poll watch.

We need to PRAY that Satan will not prevail in this election.


5 posted on 10/24/2012 4:46:16 PM PDT by Reddy (B.O. stinks)
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To: HawkHogan

The sense I get is that the D’s always win the early vote.

In 2008 they were up by something like 30%

But this year it’s more like 10%

So - yeah - they’re winning the early vote, but they’re damned by how little they’re winning it by.


6 posted on 10/24/2012 4:48:19 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

They are also assuming all democrats will vote to reelect Obama


7 posted on 10/24/2012 5:10:44 PM PDT by edzo4 (You call us the 'Party Of No', I call us the resistance.)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr
Early vote #s in Montgomery Co OH: 2008=10,400 2012=2,200

This is an 80% decline in early (mostly D) vote. Massive dropoff.

Obama had 9,000 people at a rally and they had 27 Greyhound busses to take them to register and vote at election HQ. After the 3d bus arrived empty, they gave up. They expected THOUSANDS and got 300.

8 posted on 10/24/2012 5:29:50 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Dems were up in early voting in 2010, and we all know how that panned out for them. Heck, I was worried because I went to the other side and saw very convincing arguments with calculations that based upon the early voting, it appeared the polls were wrong with a GOP win.

Well, the polls were even less than the actual outcome DESPITE the Dem early voting lead.

It really doesn’t mean much, but the margin of it does....and we are cutting into it!


9 posted on 10/24/2012 6:20:42 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: LS

That 9,000 people rally was in Fairfax, VA on Friday, October 19th?


10 posted on 10/24/2012 8:44:50 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: LS

LS, I’m sorry to drive you crazy on this issue...

But on Oct 15th “Steve Harsman, deputy director of the Montgomery County Board of Elections, said Monday that since absentee voting began Oct. 2, his office has seen more than 6,000 people cast in-person ballots, with another 12,000-plus submitting mail ballots – the highest first-two-weeks turnout the county has ever seen. On top of those 18,000, another 32,000 requested mail ballots but have yet to return them.”

http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/more-than-45000-vote-in-first-two-weeks-in-miami-v/nSdYH/

...so my question, as of Oct 15th, he said “6,000 people cast in-person ballots”...so I’m confused as to why your source says it’s 2,200 and not 6,000 (as of Oct 15th)?


11 posted on 10/25/2012 1:33:51 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy
1) my source had data for first four weeks. Don't know what this guy's " to date" means.

2) other than that, either way---6,000 or 10,000 it's a massive drop off for Ds of 40-80%.

12 posted on 10/25/2012 5:29:32 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

And among the Ds, I wonder how many are voting, as many of the Dems I know, for Mitt?

I think this poses more of a problem for Obama than just the drop in total numbers.


13 posted on 10/25/2012 5:34:29 AM PDT by Gulf War One
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To: profit_guy

No, 9000 Obama voters in Dayton, OH a couple of nights ago


14 posted on 10/25/2012 5:47:06 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Isn’t the comparison supposed to be 6,000 (as of Oct 15, 2012) to 10,400 (in 2008)?, and not 2,200 to 10,400?


15 posted on 10/25/2012 6:49:00 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

Depends on the 2008 date. Apples to apples. But WTF? If Obama is “only” down 40% it’s a crushing defeat.


16 posted on 10/25/2012 6:53:32 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Not trying to be argumentative, just saying that those numbers (6,000 ‘in-persons’) were from the deputy director of the Montgomery County Board of Elections as of Oct 15th, and that the gap may be a lot less now. Is there any way to get the most recent info on ‘in-person’ numbers from the county itself?


17 posted on 10/25/2012 7:09:20 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: LS
That's good/funny news. But...

I am trying to wrap my head around just what kind of loser goes to an Obama rally. Isn't already registered to vote. Gets on A BUS loaded with other Obama losers to be taken to go register.

Pathetic.

18 posted on 10/25/2012 9:21:44 AM PDT by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: LS

Beeson Ohio memo notes 55% of early vote has come from precincts Kasich won in 2010. 45% from Strickland


19 posted on 10/25/2012 12:35:06 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: profit_guy

Sure. Go down to the Bd of elections and count, which I don’t have time to do. I’m still mystified why you would think I even remotely negative if early votes (Ds) are down “only” 40%. A week ago, ANY Republican would ave been thrilled with such a number.


20 posted on 10/25/2012 1:58:26 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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