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Hurricane Sandy (LIVE THREAD)
NOAA/NHC & Various ^ | 10/25/2012 | NOAA/NHC & Various

Posted on 10/25/2012 8:53:50 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Late season Hurricane Sandy churning poleward off the Eastern U.S. coast.


Sea Surface Temps

Public Advisories

NHC Tropical Discussions

Satellite Images

Buoy Data: Current Observations


TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; News/Current Events; US: Connecticut; US: Delaware; US: Florida; US: New Jersey; US: New York; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: frankenstorm; hurricane; hurricanesandy; nautinurse; sandy; tropical
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
A tropical storm watch has been issued from Savannah River northward
to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including Pamlico Sound.

Wind field expanding...
Hurricane force winds extend 35 miles and tropical storm force
winds extend outward 275 miles from the storm center.

Category 1 sustained winds 80mph, 968mb
Moving NW at 13mph


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

51 posted on 10/26/2012 2:19:26 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Barack Obama--you are the weakest link. Goodbye!)
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To: NautiNurse

There is a group out on Robin Sage in Pineland, Green Beret trainees from Fort Bragg. They finish around the 31st. I wonder how this will affect them.


52 posted on 10/26/2012 2:42:02 AM PDT by Jemian
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To: PA Engineer
...The only item I have to work on is getting the chain saw restarted and mixing more fuel...

You can get premixed 2-cycle gas & oil in quart cans now most anyplace they sell lawn equipment. Fuel stabilizer is mixed in. It's expensive compared to mixing your own, but hassle-free.

Don't forget an extra bar, bar oil, chains, spark plugs ( Many! ) and files.

And be careful- I've run chainsaws all my life & I hate the damned things.

53 posted on 10/26/2012 2:44:17 AM PDT by backhoe (Just a Merry-Hearted Keyboard Pirate Boy, plunderin' his way across the InterToobs)
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To: NautiNurse
Just d***, again:


54 posted on 10/26/2012 2:58:36 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: NautiNurse
The forecast track is an absolute worst-case scenario for the Philly area and the Jersey Shore:


55 posted on 10/26/2012 3:02:12 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy
I'll prolly print that map and pin it to the cork board here above my desk.

Perfect rationalization for NOT worrying about chopping up that last half ton of leaves that blew down within six hours of my last mowing/mulching !

They'll likely either blow down to the Susquehanna, or the Susquehanna will come up here and get 'em !


lol/grrr

56 posted on 10/26/2012 4:45:46 AM PDT by tomkat
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To: NautiNurse
Thanks for the ping NN. It's getting a little breezy with occasional brief squalls here at the south end of the Space Coast. It'll be party time later today as this little girl passes way offshore.
57 posted on 10/26/2012 5:02:18 AM PDT by shove_it ( The 0bama regime are the people Orwell and Rand warned us about.)
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To: shove_it

Closest approach to Florida is happening roughly now. Center of circulation is clearing the Bahamas. Will be curious to see if Sandy can get wrapped up today and tomorrow... ‘cuz it’s pretty messed up - which is a good thing.


58 posted on 10/26/2012 7:02:50 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: Gabz

Heads up FRiend, this is going to get interesting.


59 posted on 10/26/2012 7:24:34 AM PDT by Delmarksman (Pro 2A Anglican American (Ford and Chevy kill more people than guns do, lets ban them))
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To: Delmarksman

That’s an understatement!


60 posted on 10/26/2012 7:52:14 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Hurricane Sandy moving slowly...
460 miles SSE of Charleston SC, moving N at 6mph
Max sustained winds 80mph, 970mb
Hurricane force winds extend 35 miles, tropical storm force winds
extend 275 miles from the storm center.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

61 posted on 10/26/2012 8:04:39 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Barack Obama--you are the weakest link. Goodbye!)
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To: Delmarksman
Right you are... the latest Euro Model has the hurricane staying closer to the East Coast, then ramming up the Chesapeake Bay late on Monday evening. Current NHC track is a bit further east, thus hitting Delaware/NJ border. So far, Euro is looking better. link to that model

All DelMarVa interests should be in full prep mode right now.... including those that could be susceptible to inland flooding forced by storm surge near the top of the Bay.

62 posted on 10/26/2012 8:52:45 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: NautiNurse

Governors of Virginia and Maryland have declared states of emergency in advance of the storm.


63 posted on 10/26/2012 9:08:50 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
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To: gonzo
***SURF'S UP!***

¿surf or serf?

64 posted on 10/26/2012 9:10:33 AM PDT by Bob Ireland (The Democrat Party is a criminal enterprise)
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To: All
There's always a first time for everything, but according to this map there's not been a 'cane follow the track currently forecast in October in the past 150yrs.


             


(not a weather geek .. fyi only ;-)

65 posted on 10/26/2012 9:37:08 AM PDT by tomkat
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To: NautiNurse

dammit - hurricanes just suck - feeder band just came thru - put me and mt boat over about 10 degree heel :~(


66 posted on 10/26/2012 9:40:04 AM PDT by WorkerbeeCitizen (we are so screwed - ^_^)
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To: tomkat

You ain’t kidding about the leaves. Our building that we used to be in South of York still has our servers in it. It is abandon so the drains of the roof are most likely clogged. Just waiting for all hell to break loose, water has to go somewhere.


67 posted on 10/26/2012 9:48:13 AM PDT by WakeUpAndVote (I used to love my job.)
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To: alancarp
Here's a graphic I made up that illustrates my concerns... (and I apologize for the size of this). The models are projecting the storm to arrive with a fairly steep "entry angle" - maybe driving due NW into the coast. That would forces many of the tributaries backward... causing major flooding.

This graphic is based on the latest European model run since it has been "most right' so far. If that turns out to be correct, then all waterways between Washington and Richmond will be impacted, though the area near King George, VA and SE from there could be the hardest hit.

But use this graphic as a guide -- as I say, the exact track is still unknown, plus it's going to be a large storm: Delaware Bay could very well get this instead with only a modest change in either the approach angle OR the timing of the NW turn... a difference in a couple of hours would change the landfall by 150 miles.


68 posted on 10/26/2012 9:51:21 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: backhoe
You can get premixed 2-cycle gas & oil in quart cans now most anyplace they sell lawn equipment.

I honestly hadn't seen that. I have three different mixes that drive me crazy. I will definitely look for it.

I'm covered on safety gear and log turners. Thanks
69 posted on 10/26/2012 10:24:08 AM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: alancarp

Hope everyone in the path is busy getting prepped today! Looks like a doozy of a storm.


70 posted on 10/26/2012 12:03:32 PM PDT by Abigail Adams
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To: Abigail Adams
The models have shifted again... this time further north. The Euro is back to a hit from the Central NJ coast-to-NYC. The GFS is now all the way out to Cape Cod.

I'm not gonna redo the graphic from post 68... it's too big, and I don't wanna be "chasing" the models all weekend. Suffice it for now to say that almost all coastal areas will be impacted, and areas within 50-60 miles north of any landfall point will suffer some nasty inland flooding. That pic still illustrates the reasons way... regardless of who exactly ends up getting hit.

And really... if Sandy approaches via a more northerly trek, there would be a real danger of beach damage over a vast swath as it parallels the coast.

71 posted on 10/26/2012 1:34:07 PM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: PA Engineer

You will be shocked at the cost of the pre-mixed products. I can’t imagine why anyone would buy them. You can get “ratio-rite” products that make mixing easy.

Two strokes will run on an amazing range of mixing ratios and even non-specific petroleum or vegetable-based lubricants. In the old days it wasn’t that unusual to mix ordinary motor oil if a two-stroke lubricant wasn’t available, although you would never think of doing that now.

Each motor has an optimal ratio but even these can be debated. I personally have had motors whose specifications ranged from 20:1 to 100:1. The specs are developed based on operating temperature, jetting, performance requirements, load characteristics and metallurgy (bearing types, mostly). Correct jetting is often much more important than correct mixing ratio. The mixing ratio does affect the jetting, but the change is rather small within reason.

In a pinch, most of these motors can be run on ratios much more lean than specified. In fact, crankcases generally have quite a bit of oil sludge that provides adequate lubrication at low rpm, even with no premix at all!

Just buy a gallon of marine 2T oil and mix it at 50:1 and everything will be fine for the vast majority of motors. Even my air-cooled motors seem to tolerate that OK. I have generally stopped using tailored ratios except when spark plug appearance or spooge acccumulation suggests otherwise.


72 posted on 10/26/2012 1:55:00 PM PDT by steve86 (Acerbic by nature not nurture TM)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida East Coast from north of Deerfield Beach to St Augustine
* South Santee River to Duck NC...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds
* Great Abaco and Grand Bahama islands


Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Savannah River to South Santee River
* Florida East Coast from north of St Augustine to Fernandina Beach
* Bermuda

Max sustained winds 75mph, 971mb
Moving N at 7mph


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

73 posted on 10/26/2012 2:09:20 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Barack Obama--you are the weakest link. Goodbye!)
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To: steve86
Interesting post, thanks.

I've several Stihl tools, including the go-to chainsaw, all of which specify 50:1.

Also have an inherited Jonesred chainsaw and trimmer, both of which are crap, and they specify 40:1.

For all the times I've had to F with that J saw, am gonna try pouring some 50:1 down its throat and free up a gas can !


maniacal LOL

74 posted on 10/26/2012 2:33:42 PM PDT by tomkat
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jonsered


75 posted on 10/26/2012 2:34:58 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: steve86
Just buy a gallon of marine 2T oil and mix it at 50:1 and everything will be fine for the vast majority of motors. Even my air-cooled motors seem to tolerate that OK. I have generally stopped using tailored ratios except when spark plug appearance or spooge acccumulation suggests otherwise.

Thanks. Everything but the tiller and 16" chainsaw are 50:1. Good to know. I was getting tired of mixing three different gallon containers.
76 posted on 10/26/2012 2:58:32 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: tomkat
For all the times I've had to F with that J saw, am gonna try pouring some 50:1 down its throat and free up a gas can !

LOL. Beat me to the post.
77 posted on 10/26/2012 3:00:29 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: PA Engineer; tomkat

Older motors, like my 70’s dirt bikes, were designed for the lubricants of the time. Hence, the 20:1 recommendation. Even the cheapest Walmart premix now is far superior to what was available then.

But, by all means, if you know in advance that a heavy load scenario is likely, especially with high operating temperatures —say like a dirt bike tractoring through deep sand on a hot day — go by the manufacturer’s recommendations or reasonably close to it (i.e. don’t use 80:1 if the owner’s manual calls for 40:1).

I don’t have a gas chain saw but being air-cooled and used in high-stress conditions I imagine the use can fit into the “severe” category quite easily.


78 posted on 10/26/2012 3:16:07 PM PDT by steve86 (Acerbic by nature not nurture TM)
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To: alancarp
We are headed to our shore place tomorrow to bring everything in and then we are coming right back home and do the same thing on Sunday here.Our Realtor called and said volunteer’s are going to the houses were the owners can not get down.That's nice.We are under mandatory evacuation down there.
79 posted on 10/26/2012 3:31:53 PM PDT by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: steve86; PA Engineer
Well, if my math is correct, the difference between a 40:1 & a 50:1 mix for one gallon = .64 oz.

So, apportioned into 128 ozs of fuel, the difference per oz. of gas is .005 oz of oil ?

Yep, worth a try . . worst case, the J will die and can be tossed with a clear(ish) conscience !


lol

80 posted on 10/26/2012 3:49:53 PM PDT by tomkat (it's a shame that HANGING TRAITORS has gone out of fashion)
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To: Bob Ireland
"...¿surf or serf?..."

Never a 'serf', pal! I'll go out with guns blazing, as long as I don't shoot myself in the foot ... again ............................................................. FRegards

81 posted on 10/26/2012 5:09:20 PM PDT by gonzo ( Buy more ammo, dammit! You should already have the firearms ... FRegards)
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To: NautiNurse

Any body out there going duck hunting right before it hits?

I’ll bet the birds will be feeding heavy the next couple days....


82 posted on 10/26/2012 5:25:23 PM PDT by Trteamer ( (Eat Meat, Wear Fur, Own Guns, FReep Leftists, Drive an SUV, Drill A.N.W.R., Drill the Gulf, Vote)
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To: NautiNurse; FReepers
Just as an fyi, this is what the NWS has listed for the central PA area by way of info/warning on Sandy:


Public Information Statement

Statement as of 9:48 PM EDT on October 26, 2012


... Potential historic storm for central Pennsylvania...

As of Friday evening... Hurricane Sandy was moving just north of
the Bahamas on a track that is expected to take it off the
southeast Atlantic coast... before being drawn back northwestward
to make landfall along the mid Atlantic coast... somewhere between
the Delmarva Peninsula and Long Island.

Sandy is expected to intensify as it interacts with an upper level
trough moving out of the Great Lakes... and indications are that the
region could experience a widespread damaging storm... possibly of
historic proportions.

Widespread damaging high winds are possible. The storm track is
still uncertain... but the worst case scenario would have the storm
moving into the Delmarva Peninsula during the day Monday... which
would produce a damaging wind threat that would develop during the
day Monday and possibly last into Tuesday.

In addition... widespread heavy rains... possibly as much as 6 to 10
inches in some spots... would cause significant flooding on rivers and
streams across the region. Rain can be expected to begin during
the day Sunday or Sunday evening... and continue into Monday when
it will become heavy at times.

This has the potential to be a large and record setting
storm... with widespread wind damage and flooding the most likely
threats. The combination of the heavy rain and wind will create
the potential for widespread power outages and significant
flooding. At this time... the most likely time frame for the worst
of the rain and wind looks to be late Monday into Tuesday. This
means there is still time to prepare.

Some suggested pre storm actions are:   yada yada yada . . .

83 posted on 10/26/2012 7:48:46 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: NautiNurse
looks to me this storm has broken up
84 posted on 10/27/2012 12:33:16 AM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric Cartman voice* 'I love you, guys')
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Sandy downgraded to Tropical Storm with very large wind field...

Sustained winds 70mph, 969mb
Tropical storm force winds extend 450 miles from the storm center
Moving NNE at 10mph


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

85 posted on 10/27/2012 2:36:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Barack Obama--you are the weakest link. Goodbye!)
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To: NautiNurse; FReepers
Public Information Statement

Statement as of 5:14 am EDT on October 27, 2012


... Potential historic storm for central Pennsylvania...

As of early Saturday morning... Hurricane Sandy has been
temporarily downgraded to a strong tropical
and was located
350 miles to the southeast of Charleston South Carolina. This
storm is forecast to strengthen back into a minimal hurricane by
late Sunday night as it moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf
Stream east of the Outer Banks . . .

more here


86 posted on 10/27/2012 3:56:54 AM PDT by tomkat
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To: NautiNurse

Per FOX News........back to hurricane strength.


87 posted on 10/27/2012 5:39:41 AM PDT by Rushmore Rocks
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
...Air Force aircraft finds hurricane-force winds again...

Max sustained winds 75mph, 960mb
Hurricane force winds extend outward 100 miles, and tropical storm
force winds 450 miles
from the center of the storm.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

88 posted on 10/27/2012 5:50:01 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Barack Obama--you are the weakest link. Goodbye!)
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To: NautiNurse

Hurricane bump.


89 posted on 10/27/2012 6:16:32 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Lots of survival supply lists circulating, but no mention of chocolate. I don't get it.
90 posted on 10/27/2012 6:31:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Barack Obama--you are the weakest link. Goodbye!)
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To: NautiNurse
"Lots of survival supply lists circulating, but no mention of chocolate. I don't get it. "

Just you wait...they'll be sorry!

91 posted on 10/27/2012 6:59:22 AM PDT by blam
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To: NautiNurse

Offshore buoys storm update:

Frying Pan Shoals weather buoy off of Cape Fear, NC is showing 18’ seas with steady 40mph wind gusting to 50.

Cape Canaveral, FL buoy is showing 27’ seas, steady 60mph wind gusting to 78.

Beaufort Wind Scale

Windspeed
in MPH Description - Visible Condition
0 Calm smoke rises vertically
1 - 4 Light air direction of wind shown by smoke but not by wind vanes
4 - 7 Light breeze wind felt on face; leaves rustle; ordinary wind vane moved by wind
8 - 12 Gentle breeze leaves and small twigs in constant motion; wind extends light flag
13 - 18 Moderate breeze raises dust and loose paper; small branches are moved
19 - 24 Fresh breeze small trees in leaf begin to sway; crested wavelets form on inland water
25 - 31 Strong breeze large branches in motion; telephone wires whistle; umbrellas used with difficulty
32 - 38 Moderate gale whole trees in motion; inconvenience in walking against wind
39 - 46 Fresh gale breaks twigs off trees; generally impedes progress
47 - 54 Strong gale slight structural damage occurs; chimney pots and slates removed
55 - 63 Whole gale trees uprooted; considerable structural damage occurs
64 - 72 Storm very rarely experienced; accompanied by widespread damage
73+ Hurricane devastation occurs


92 posted on 10/27/2012 8:25:37 AM PDT by Rebelbase (The most transparent administration ever is clear as mud.)
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To: NautiNurse
Max sustained winds 75mph, 960mb

11 AM advisory has the pressure down to 958mb. That is more like the pressure for a Cat 3 hurricane. Tropical storm-force winds span 660 miles.

93 posted on 10/27/2012 10:45:06 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: NautiNurse

Everyone stay safe. I’ll be watching from afar as it goes over my home. Hoping this storm doesn’t live up to the previews!


94 posted on 10/27/2012 12:35:39 PM PDT by abner (I have no tagline, therefore no identity.)
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To: abner

Are you really in Japan! Very cool!


95 posted on 10/27/2012 12:58:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Barack Obama--you are the weakest link. Goodbye!)
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To: NautiNurse
Maybe we should post a new Sandy thread. This map is staggering:

Do folks understand what will happen in the way of power outages when this windfield moves into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast? EVERY FREEPER from the NC/VA border north to Maine and out to the PA/Ohio border should have at least two weeks of potable water on hand, or the means to produce such. And non-perishable food.

This is not Weather Channel hype. There simply is no precedent in the modern meterological record for this type of storm. Maybe it won't be bad. But every indication is that it will be.

96 posted on 10/27/2012 2:30:48 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy
This is not Weather Channel hype. There simply is no precedent in the modern meterological record for this type of storm. Maybe it won't be bad. But every indication is that it will be.

I think you may be right and I’m hoping the hype is bigger than the storm this is the rare combination of a hurricane with a very deep central core merging with another strong system and coming into the coast a nearly a right angle, during a full moon to boot. The 1991 “Perfect Storm” caused millions of dollars in damage and that didn’t even hit a populous area, IIRC, didn’t even come on shore.

Unbelievably there are some people here claiming this is nothing but hype purely manufactured and “faked” by the “media” in order to help Obama and that nothing will happen other than a light breeze and some rain showers.

What people need to understand is that this storm is massive, some 800 miles wide, has a huge wind field and, perhaps even more importantly, untypical for a hurricane or nor’easter, it will not move through quickly. Two days of tropical storm force winds combined with torrential rains and an unprecedented storm surge in the most populous area of the country is not a good thing. BTW, parts of WV could get up to 50” of snow!

97 posted on 10/27/2012 3:41:46 PM PDT by MD Expat in PA
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To: MD Expat in PA

EVERYONE in the impacted region needs to be prepared for power outages that could last more than two weeks. And the most critical factor is to have enough potable water on hand for that time period. A gallon per person per day. Fill everything that can hold water. Now.


98 posted on 10/27/2012 3:48:16 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: NautiNurse

Northern Virginia Romney rally scheduled for tomorrow has been postponed. Virginia Gov McDonnell says first responders need to be preparing for storm instead. So Romney is going to Ohio.


99 posted on 10/27/2012 4:01:21 PM PDT by HokieMom (Pacepa : Can the U.S. afford a president who can't recognize anti-Americanism?)
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To: dirtboy
I live in central PA right in the path of the storm. I went to the store today. I bought 6-1 gallon jugs of water and two large case of bottled water, several bags of that pre-cooked Uncle Ben’s rice and some cans of kidney beans (in addition to what I already had in my emergency stash), about a two dozen small cans of tuna and chicken each, cans of soup, canned spaghetti and ravioli, two boxes of crackers, a large jar of peanut butter, some apples, several packs of batteries for my flash light and radio and some more candles and what the heck – a large bag of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups :) , oh and some instant coffee and a six pack of Starbuck frappachino ;), - gotta have my caffeine! I also topped off my gas tank.

If nothing much happens and I don’t lose power, none of things will go to waste. And I’m keeping an eye on the forecast and if the you know what appears ready to hit the fan, I have my go bag ready and will drive ten minutes away to my niece’s house before things get too bad, taking my provisions with me. My niece’s husband is a prepper and a camper and works for an HVAC co. and has not only a gas powered generator but a generator he can run off his diesel work truck.

The grocery store was well stocked however the checkout line was long but not because the store was crowded but because they only had two checkout lines and one express lane open - ugg. I did observe a few others like me, stocking up on the types of things I bought but then I also saw people buying frozen foods and fresh meats and other perishable foods.

100 posted on 10/27/2012 4:12:03 PM PDT by MD Expat in PA
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