Skip to comments.The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
Posted on 10/25/2012 11:55:14 AM PDT by LucianOfSamasota
The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.
QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.
Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.
Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:
(Excerpt) Read more at unskewedpolls.com ...
WAAAAAAAY too optimistic.
I’m hoping for a landslide, and I don’t think that’s impossible. But it’s still a hope.
By the way, I’m reclaiming that “hope” word. They don’t get to take that word too!
Because we all know that more decimal places means more credibility...
I get what unskewed is trying to do, but to a large degree, Gallup is right — party ID is a trailing indicator of preference, not the other way around. The polls with their 9% response rate (or worse... one in Michigan was <2% response rate) are simply unreliable, and substituting one set of wild-ass educated guesses for another isn’t really particularly telling.
I’m personally saying Romney 322, zero 216. They are giving Romney Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico (maybe a couple of others) that I don’t think Romney will win.
Too darn rosy but I’m going to say from the gut Romney will be in the range nationally of 52.4%.
Electorally is all that matters. I’m going with 290 ballpark +/- 10.
I feel Ohio will break for Romney but also Colorado, Iowa and at least one other surprise.
New Hampshire is my bellwether and has been my standard for months. I’m sticking with it.
If it sounds too good to be true, it probably isn’t.
Romney’s 359 electoral votes to Obama’s 179 electoral votes!!! While I would LOVE that to be true, I just can’t believe it.
This means Romney wins all tossups and a few leaning Obama states.
That’s too optimistic in my opinion. Sure would be nice though!
My thoughts are that this is ridiculous. I want Obama gone as much as the next guy here, and do think it can be done, but Oregon to Romney? Never in a million years, and if they’re that wrong then I really don’t put any stock in the rest of their analysis.
MN going red? That hasn’t happened in my memory, And I’m old. I would put this as a best case scenario, but not terribly likely. Gallup and Rasmussen are both showing a two or three point races. They tend to be a lot more reasonable in their samples than the MSM polls. In a three point race the map is going to look like it did in 2004. This map is getting closer to 1984.
I could see this map happening, except I don’t think he’ll get MN or OR. But the others are very, very plausible.
When are we allowed optimism? Obama is so obviously imploding, Romney’s numbers are only getting better, and the media is having a hard time protecting the President, despite their obvious attempts.
The campaigns of winning incumbents do not look like this, Obama is flailing, his internals must be horrible. He’s searching for a retirement home in Hawaii on the down low, he even thinks he’s going to lose .
I’ve been predicting for months that Romney will get 320 to 350 electoral votes and I hold to that.
I'd say that Dick Morris, judging from what I heard from him last night on Hannity, would be fairly comfortable with this projection.
From this perspective, I think Romney probably wins but it won't be by so wide a margin, say 4 or 5 points. That's with the proviso that 'Rat cheating and fraud are reduced from 2008 levels, which will probably be the case.
I’ve wondered if the polling companies already factor in the inevitable democratic fraud, in an effort to get their final numbers to come closest to what actually ends up being considered the end result.
“This means Romney wins all tossups and a few leaning Obama states.”
That is exactly what happens - with the possible exception of MI. That may go to Obamugabe, but I doubt it. (And this comes from a non-Romney supporter.)
Is anyone old enough to remember Reagan 1980?
unskewed has it right. they have been doing a good job tracking polls all along. they have included 2010 turn outs and results. they understand the pent up frustration that is the tea party.
Bump for checking after the landslide!