Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
unskewedpolls.com ^ | October 25, 2012 | staff

Posted on 10/25/2012 11:55:14 AM PDT by LucianOfSamasota

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.

Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:

(Excerpt) Read more at unskewedpolls.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: polls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-59 next last
Yet another poll, I know. Mostly RED map here.

Any thoughts?

1 posted on 10/25/2012 11:55:15 AM PDT by LucianOfSamasota
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

WAAAAAAAY too optimistic.


2 posted on 10/25/2012 11:58:49 AM PDT by johniegrad
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

I’m hoping for a landslide, and I don’t think that’s impossible. But it’s still a hope.

By the way, I’m reclaiming that “hope” word. They don’t get to take that word too!


3 posted on 10/25/2012 12:00:03 PM PDT by keats5 (Not all of us are hypnotized.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

Because we all know that more decimal places means more credibility...

I get what unskewed is trying to do, but to a large degree, Gallup is right — party ID is a trailing indicator of preference, not the other way around. The polls with their 9% response rate (or worse... one in Michigan was <2% response rate) are simply unreliable, and substituting one set of wild-ass educated guesses for another isn’t really particularly telling.


4 posted on 10/25/2012 12:03:32 PM PDT by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

I’m personally saying Romney 322, zero 216. They are giving Romney Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico (maybe a couple of others) that I don’t think Romney will win.


5 posted on 10/25/2012 12:05:28 PM PDT by 6ppc (It's torch and pitchfork time)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

Too darn rosy but I’m going to say from the gut Romney will be in the range nationally of 52.4%.

Electorally is all that matters. I’m going with 290 ballpark +/- 10.

I feel Ohio will break for Romney but also Colorado, Iowa and at least one other surprise.

New Hampshire is my bellwether and has been my standard for months. I’m sticking with it.


6 posted on 10/25/2012 12:07:16 PM PDT by romanesq (For George Soros so loved the world, he gave us Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably isn’t.

Romney’s 359 electoral votes to Obama’s 179 electoral votes!!! While I would LOVE that to be true, I just can’t believe it.


7 posted on 10/25/2012 12:07:46 PM PDT by Gator113 (I would have voted for NEWT, now it's Romney & Ryan.~Just livin' life, my way~)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

This means Romney wins all tossups and a few leaning Obama states.

That’s too optimistic in my opinion. Sure would be nice though!


8 posted on 10/25/2012 12:08:41 PM PDT by Shadow44
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

My thoughts are that this is ridiculous. I want Obama gone as much as the next guy here, and do think it can be done, but Oregon to Romney? Never in a million years, and if they’re that wrong then I really don’t put any stock in the rest of their analysis.


9 posted on 10/25/2012 12:09:10 PM PDT by mquinn (Obama's supporters: a deliberate drowning of consciousness by means of rhythmic noise)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: keats5
The definition of a "landslide victory" is said to be fairly subjective. In the case of; Anyone vs the One, a margin of victory as little as 4-6 points will likely be considered a landslide. Anything more than that will likely be on the scale of a super volcano...
10 posted on 10/25/2012 12:10:27 PM PDT by dps.inspect (rage against the Obama machine...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

MN going red? That hasn’t happened in my memory, And I’m old. I would put this as a best case scenario, but not terribly likely. Gallup and Rasmussen are both showing a two or three point races. They tend to be a lot more reasonable in their samples than the MSM polls. In a three point race the map is going to look like it did in 2004. This map is getting closer to 1984.


11 posted on 10/25/2012 12:11:27 PM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

I could see this map happening, except I don’t think he’ll get MN or OR. But the others are very, very plausible.


12 posted on 10/25/2012 12:17:37 PM PDT by erod
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: keats5

When are we allowed optimism? Obama is so obviously imploding, Romney’s numbers are only getting better, and the media is having a hard time protecting the President, despite their obvious attempts.
The campaigns of winning incumbents do not look like this, Obama is flailing, his internals must be horrible. He’s searching for a retirement home in Hawaii on the down low, he even thinks he’s going to lose .
I’ve been predicting for months that Romney will get 320 to 350 electoral votes and I hold to that.


13 posted on 10/25/2012 12:41:14 PM PDT by dmyhra
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota; johniegrad; SunkenCiv; markomalley; Clintonfatigued; randita; ml/nj; ...
Never heard of QStarNews before. Either the guy who runs it is some kind of statistical wonk who is a genius in the subject of political prognostication, or is pretty much a phony out to give the impression that he is just that.

I'd say that Dick Morris, judging from what I heard from him last night on Hannity, would be fairly comfortable with this projection.

From this perspective, I think Romney probably wins but it won't be by so wide a margin, say 4 or 5 points. That's with the proviso that 'Rat cheating and fraud are reduced from 2008 levels, which will probably be the case.

14 posted on 10/25/2012 12:46:58 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: justiceseeker93

I’ve wondered if the polling companies already factor in the inevitable democratic fraud, in an effort to get their final numbers to come closest to what actually ends up being considered the end result.


15 posted on 10/25/2012 12:52:49 PM PDT by butterdezillion
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Shadow44

“This means Romney wins all tossups and a few leaning Obama states.”

That is exactly what happens - with the possible exception of MI. That may go to Obamugabe, but I doubt it. (And this comes from a non-Romney supporter.)


16 posted on 10/25/2012 12:54:42 PM PDT by rashley (Rashley)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

Is anyone old enough to remember Reagan 1980?


17 posted on 10/25/2012 1:05:35 PM PDT by TheGeezer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

unskewed has it right. they have been doing a good job tracking polls all along. they have included 2010 turn outs and results. they understand the pent up frustration that is the tea party.


18 posted on 10/25/2012 1:05:46 PM PDT by Nifster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mquinn
but Oregon to Romney? Never in a million years

I saw in another thread a few days ago that Oregon was trending away from Obama and was close to becoming a swing state.

FYI
19 posted on 10/25/2012 1:07:53 PM PDT by TomGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

Bump for checking after the landslide!


20 posted on 10/25/2012 1:11:14 PM PDT by US_MilitaryRules (Unnngh! To many PDS people!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

Romney is not going to take all of Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Oregon, or Nevada. Romney will likely win but with about 280 to 290 electoral votes.


21 posted on 10/25/2012 1:11:43 PM PDT by Delhi Rebels (There was a row in Silver Street - the regiments was out.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nifster
They have included 2010 turn outs and results

Off year elections are NOT indicative of Presidential elections
Turn out is much less
22 posted on 10/25/2012 1:19:25 PM PDT by uncbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: dmyhra

You are new here, and I’ve been around a long time.

BUT....

I Agree! You are spot on.

Let’s party like it’s Nineteen Eight TEA!!!!


23 posted on 10/25/2012 1:24:37 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

I have predicted all along 53% Romney 47% obummer. The vote will follow the tax liability. Those who pay know who the freeloaders are.


24 posted on 10/25/2012 1:30:23 PM PDT by pfflier
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TheGeezer

I voted for Reagan in 1980.

But those were the days of the ‘moral majority’, and a US population that was proud to be American.

Now we have significant populations of Hispanics, Muslims, and freeloaders who are united in their desire to loot America, to take with their vote what real Americans spent 200+ years to build.

I hope for good things, but I’m not in love with Post-Christian America.


25 posted on 10/25/2012 1:36:49 PM PDT by LucianOfSamasota (Tanstaafl - its not just for breakfast anymore...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: keats5

When are we allowed optimism? Obama is so obviously imploding, Romney’s numbers are only getting better, and the media is having a hard time protecting the President, despite their obvious attempts.
The campaigns of winning incumbents do not look like this, Obama is flailing, his internals must be horrible. He’s searching for a retirement home in Hawaii on the down low, he even thinks he’s going to lose .
I’ve been predicting for months that Romney will get 320 to 350 electoral votes and I hold to that.


26 posted on 10/25/2012 1:39:20 PM PDT by dmyhra
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

Very good job! I don’t think MN will flip but it will be close. MI is always a tease but pulls away because of Detroit.

OR is surprise and I think its winnable despite Portland. 54% sounds about right - its what I’ve been predicting.

51% is the low end 54% is the high end and Romney may well take 53%. If O’s numbers begin flat-lining before Election Day, it could even be 55-56% for Romney.

This poll is much more a reflection of what we see on the ground because the party IDs are accurately weighed and each state’s past voting history is taken into account. It looks Bush I’s win in 1988.

I think that’s very realistic in November. The media will never show any of this because they’re in the tank for Obama. Its important to be optimistic not to be prone to defeatism. We won a big victory in 2010 and we’ll win a historic victory in 2012!


27 posted on 10/25/2012 1:44:41 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dmyhra
When are we allowed optimism?

We're talkin' about a man who cut his political teeth with the founders of the Weather Underground, and spent his formative years as part of the 20th Century's most corrupt political machine.

Thanks, but my optimism will show on November 7 (or later) when nObama calls President-elect W. Mitt Romney to offer his congratulations. And not a minute before!

28 posted on 10/25/2012 1:48:57 PM PDT by ssaftler (Romney: "Attacking me is not an agenda")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Delhi Rebels

In NM Obama has a 9 point lead, and no hope that Wilson will win the Senate race. Republicans wrote us off a long time ago, they didn’t even try. Makes me so mad at them. If the election was not so important I would skip voting, but then again 4 more years of this and we wont survive. Denco


29 posted on 10/25/2012 1:58:50 PM PDT by denco
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: johniegrad

I agree its optomistic however, its not far off. Oregon and Minnesota won’t go red. Nevada I don’t think will go red. As for the rest they are very likely red and if they are not it will be real close.

But don’t be complacient. We must proceed as if we may lose.


30 posted on 10/25/2012 2:00:21 PM PDT by TheArizona
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: butterdezillion
I’ve wondered if the polling companies already factor in the inevitable democratic fraud, in an effort to get their final numbers to come closest to what actually ends up being considered the end result.

No, I don't think that Dummyfraud is a specific factor in the polling, although they seem to select 'Rats for their interviews in greater percentages than in the real voting electorate, so as not to deflate the energy of the 'Rat campaigns and supporters too much. Not surprising, since in many if not most instances, a "polling company" is an appendage of a MSM operation.

Accuracy is not their primary goal, making their pals feel as well as possible under the specific circumstances is.

31 posted on 10/25/2012 2:10:26 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: TheGeezer; All
Is anyone old enough to remember Reagan 1980?

Yes, and many have predicted that this race will be similar to that one, with the Republican challenger pulling ahead decisively over the unpopular Democratic incumbent in the final weeks.

There seems to be that similarity, but there are some differences too. One is that Carter did not have the seeming lock on some of the biggest states that Obama has. Another is that you had a much stronger third party candidate (John Anderson, a RINO) which added another wrinkle to that race.

32 posted on 10/25/2012 2:23:27 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

Romney 296
Obama 242
take it to the bank :)


33 posted on 10/25/2012 2:23:56 PM PDT by cantbetooconservative (I miss Ronald Reagan)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

..301-326


34 posted on 10/25/2012 2:32:25 PM PDT by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop; PGalt; MaggieCarta; Darren McCarty; SunkenCiv; cripplecreek; Miss_Meyet; ...
MI is always a tease but pulls away because of Detroit.

Don't forget that the city of Detroit has become largely vacated; it has less than half the population it once had.

And one more thing: the Romney name means something generally positive there, or at least should. His father was elected governor three times. (I confess that when I hear the words "Governor Romney" even now, I think of George Romney.) Is the state suffering from amnesia?

35 posted on 10/25/2012 2:36:27 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: justiceseeker93

To avoid explaining it again.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2950077/posts?page=25#25


36 posted on 10/25/2012 2:39:40 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: Springman; cyclotic; netmilsmom; RatsDawg; PGalt; FreedomHammer; queenkathy; madison10; ...
What say ye? Are we a bunch of liberal Detroit dwellers who are incapable of voting republican?

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

MLB 2012 World Series thread
37 posted on 10/25/2012 2:43:34 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota
RE: #25, what you said. While I'd love to see a 1980 repeat, and I do more and more see a solid Romney win (something around 53-47) this isn't your father's America. Just look at the Rat party. It's pretty much gone full speed ahead Communist.

I almost hate to say this, but thank GOD the ecomomy sucks right now. Otherwise, we'd probably be looking at 4 more years and the probable death of the Republic, at least as we know it.

38 posted on 10/25/2012 2:47:41 PM PDT by Marathoner (If the bastard were to win reelection, let America burn. IDGAF anymore.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: uncbob

I think you will go back after this election and change your mond. The turn out is going to be quite large for republicans and independents and not so much for dems.

In case you missed it, there was a sea change in 2010


39 posted on 10/25/2012 4:37:11 PM PDT by Nifster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

Nate Silver on the right. Woot.


40 posted on 10/25/2012 4:44:46 PM PDT by commonguymd (The enemy within is our MSM. War starts there imo. twitter @commonguymd)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

I think this is possible if everything breaks right. I love it that Oregon and Minnesota and Michigan go red. No one is expecting that. Maine could even tip. The Left will be in complete meltdown.


41 posted on 10/25/2012 4:49:22 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota
If both OR and MN go to R&R I will eat my hat. Reagan couldn't get MN in ‘84 in the face of a 49-state win. I know Mondull was the favorite son then, but, geez, the ‘Rats are so entrenched there. He couldn't get MN in ‘80 either even though he clobbered Carter nationwide. G. H. W. Bush lost both MN and OR in his ‘88 landslide. I'd love to have to eat my hat, but I don't think it's going to happen.
42 posted on 10/25/2012 4:52:11 PM PDT by chimera
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ssaftler; All
We're talkin' about a man who cut his political teeth with the founders of the Weather Underground, and spent his formative years as part of the 20th Century's most corrupt political machine.

And add to that a man who most likely wasn't born in the United states, and, if so, is probably not even an American citizen.

What kind of a dumbed down electorate do we have if they elected him once and we still have to be concerned about the possibility of a second term!!!

43 posted on 10/25/2012 5:00:41 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Nifster

Well I hope so but off year elections don’t always indicate presidential elections
Boobs who don’t realize congress matters vote ONLY in the presidential elections
Democrats got slaughtered in 94
Clinton won in 96
But the economy was booming then


44 posted on 10/25/2012 5:02:35 PM PDT by uncbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: chimera
Hey, chimera, Republicans have won statewide elections in MN not all that long ago. Remember Tim Pawlenty? Remember Norm Coleman?
45 posted on 10/25/2012 5:06:22 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

To: TheGeezer

“Is anyone old enough to remember Reagan 1980?”

I voted for Reagan 1980 absentee ballot - I was out of the country at the time. I also remember 20 years earlier when I voted in my first presidential election...1st of three times I voted for Nixon. In 1960 I was in the military.


46 posted on 10/25/2012 5:26:52 PM PDT by GGpaX4DumpedTea (I am a Tea Party descendant...steeped in the Constitutional Republic given to us by the Founders.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: LucianOfSamasota

I have tabulated the data here in an Excel spreadsheet, did some other things to it, and plan to use it Election night to check results against this projection. Could be interesting.

Here in Ohio where I am, I sense the winds are blowing a tide that is favorable to Romney. If this is correct, it could be over quickly...News at 11...

If the rest of this map is close to what actually happens, Ohio won’t matter and there will be no ‘hanging chads’. to challenge.

DISCLAIMER: I am not saying that this prognostication is correct, but I see some encouragement in all this. Note to all...achieving these kinds of numbers requires that we ALL get out there and vote, and that we encourage as many right minded folks that we know to do the same.


47 posted on 10/25/2012 5:42:23 PM PDT by GGpaX4DumpedTea (I am a Tea Party descendant...steeped in the Constitutional Republic given to us by the Founders.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: uncbob

Ohio elected Kasic and a ton of other conservatives....that is a sea change


48 posted on 10/25/2012 5:49:21 PM PDT by Nifster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: Nifster

You don’t think 94 was a sea change
It stopped Clinton’s domestic programs in their tracks


49 posted on 10/25/2012 5:54:16 PM PDT by uncbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 48 | View Replies]

To: uncbob

I think 1980 was a sea change

1994 could have been but there was no follow on PLUS between Dole and the dem smear campaign on Ken Starr....it’s only about sex...the economy was still good and there was no driving desire to swap presidents except by conservatives. That may be a swell but not a change


50 posted on 10/25/2012 5:56:52 PM PDT by Nifster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-59 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson