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The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
unskewedpolls.com ^ | October 25, 2012 | staff

Posted on 10/25/2012 11:55:14 AM PDT by LucianOfSamasota

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To: LucianOfSamasota
Below is the map of the electoral votes and then below that the raw data showing both percentages and actual projected number of votes for the two candidates in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Historical data from the last four elections is included for comparing.



Data from last four elections and projection of popular vote by state for 2012

State Clinton 1996 Dole 1996 Gore 2000 Bush 2000 Kerry 2004 Bush 2004 Obama 2008 McCain 2008 State Projected Obama Projected Romney Projected pop Obama Projected pop Romney
Alabama 43.00 50.00 42.00 56.00 37.00 63.00 39.00 60.00 Alabama 35.60 65.22 776249 1422106
Alaska 33.00 51.00 28.00 59.00 35.50 61.10 37.70 60.20 Alaska 28.90 65.80 83295 189648
Arizona 46.00 44.00 45.00 51.00 44.40 54.90 45.00 53.80 Arizona 40.45 58.90 883941 1287123
Arkansas 54.00 37.00 46.00 51.00 44.50 54.40 38.80 58.80 Arkansas 41.18 58.27 454321 642868
California 51.00 38.00 53.00 42.00 54.30 44.40 60.90 37.30 California 57.15 42.40 7008802 5199881
Colorado 44.00 46.00 42.00 51.00 47.00 51.70 53.50 44.90 Colorado 44.98 54.37 1056479 1277029
Connecticut 52.00 35.00 56.00 38.00 54.30 43.90 60.50 38.30 Connecticut 51.05 46.77 857386 785503
Delaware 52.00 37.00 55.00 42.00 53.30 45.80 61.90 37.00 Delaware 53.90 45.42 230766 194460
District of Columbia 85.00 9.00 85.00 9.00 89.20 9.30 92.90 6.50 District of Columbia 92.38 6.42 218465 15182
Florida 48.00 42.00 49.00 49.00 47.10 52.10 50.90 48.40 Florida 46.10 53.85 3912739 4570521
Georgia 46.00 47.00 43.00 55.00 41.40 58.00 47.00 52.20 Georgia 39.70 61.02 1622253 2493449
Hawaii 57.00 32.00 56.00 37.00 54.00 45.30 71.80 26.60 Hawaii 55.05 43.20 257352 201955
Idaho 34.00 52.00 28.00 67.00 30.30 68.40 36.10 61.50 Idaho 27.45 70.20 183371 468949
Illinois 54.00 37.00 55.00 43.00 54.80 44.50 61.80 36.90 Illinois 53.75 46.32 2991410 2577900
Indiana 42.00 47.00 41.00 57.00 39.30 59.90 49.90 49.00 Indiana 38.40 61.20 1092013 1740395
Iowa 50.00 40.00 49.00 48.00 49.30 49.90 54.00 44.70 Iowa 45.93 53.62 721347 842121
Kansas 36.00 54.00 37.00 58.00 36.60 62.00 41.40 56.80 Kansas 33.10 65.67 412027 817458
Kentucky 46.00 45.00 41.00 57.00 39.70 59.50 41.10 57.50 Kentucky 37.30 62.72 700965 1178674
Louisiana 52.00 40.00 45.00 53.00 42.20 56.70 39.90 58.60 Louisiana 40.13 60.05 812638 1216020
Maine 52.00 31.00 49.00 44.00 53.60 44.60 57.60 40.50 Maine 49.40 49.20 372260 370753
Maryland 54.00 38.00 56.00 40.00 56.00 43.00 61.90 36.80 Maryland 54.33 45.42 1436751 1201127
Massachusetts 61.00 28.00 60.00 33.00 62.00 36.90 62.00 36.20 Massachusetts 56.60 41.50 1780147 1305231
Michigan 52.00 38.00 51.00 46.00 51.20 47.80 57.40 40.90 Michigan 48.25 51.15 2488585 2638158
Minnesota 51.00 35.00 48.00 46.00 51.50 48.00 54.20 44.00 Minnesota 46.53 51.22 1391786 1532072
Mississippi 44.00 49.00 41.00 58.00 40.10 59.10 42.80 56.40 Mississippi 37.33 63.60 473545 806789
Missouri 47.00 41.00 47.00 50.00 46.10 53.30 49.30 49.40 Missouri 42.70 56.40 1292914 1707737
Montana 41.00 44.00 33.00 58.00 38.60 59.10 47.20 49.70 Montana 35.30 60.67 174777 300388
Nebraska 35.00 54.00 33.00 62.00 32.70 66.00 41.50 57.00 Nebraska 30.90 67.72 249953 547794
Nevada 44.00 43.00 46.00 50.00 48.10 50.70 55.10 42.70 Nevada 46.65 52.57 462332 521003
New Hampshire 49.00 39.00 47.00 48.00 50.40 49.00 54.30 44.80 New Hampshire 45.53 53.17 335376 391653
New Jersey 54.00 36.00 56.00 40.00 53.00 46.20 56.80 42.10 New Jersey 50.43 49.05 1922429 1869822
New Mexico 49.00 42.00 48.00 48.00 49.00 49.80 56.70 42.00 New Mexico 46.03 53.42 390653 453371
New York 59.00 31.00 60.00 35.00 58.40 40.10 62.20 36.70 New York 55.25 43.67 4025920 3182116
North Carolina 44.00 49.00 43.00 56.00 43.60 56.10 49.90 49.50 North Carolina 40.48 60.62 1799232 2694403
North Dakota 40.00 47.00 33.00 61.00 35.50 62.90 44.70 53.30 North Dakota 33.65 64.02 109402 208140
Ohio 47.00 40.00 46.00 50.00 48.70 50.80 51.20 47.20 Ohio 45.58 53.97 2493712 2952735
Oklahoma 40.00 48.00 38.00 60.00 34.40 65.60 34.40 65.60 Oklahoma 32.05 67.77 492013 1040365
Oregon 47.00 39.00 47.00 47.00 51.60 47.40 57.10 40.80 Oregon 46.03 51.52 811137 907881
Pennsylvania 49.00 40.00 51.00 46.00 51.00 48.50 54.70 44.30 Pennsylvania 46.78 52.67 2838495 3195885
Rhode Island 60.00 27.00 61.00 32.00 59.40 38.70 63.10 35.30 Rhode Island 56.23 41.22 258912 189798
South Carolina 44.00 50.00 41.00 57.00 41.00 58.10 44.90 53.80 South Carolina 38.08 62.70 747252 1230375
South Dakota 43.00 46.00 38.00 60.00 38.40 59.90 44.70 53.20 South Dakota 36.38 62.75 142828 246357
Tennessee 48.00 46.00 47.00 51.00 42.60 56.90 41.80 56.90 Tennessee 40.20 60.67 1076876 1625225
Texas 44.00 49.00 38.00 59.00 38.20 61.10 43.80 55.50 Texas 36.35 64.12 3049168 5378615
Utah 33.00 54.00 26.00 67.00 26.40 72.70 34.20 62.90 Utah 25.25 72.12 227283 649175
Vermont 53.00 31.00 51.00 41.00 58.90 38.80 67.80 30.60 Vermont 53.03 43.32 177009 144598
Virginia 45.00 47.00 44.00 52.00 45.60 53.80 52.70 46.40 Virginia 42.18 57.77 1631794 2234916
Washington 50.00 37.00 50.00 45.00 52.80 45.60 57.50 40.50 Washington 50.93 48.76 1414351 1354089
West Virginia 51.00 37.00 46.00 52.00 43.20 56.10 42.60 55.70 West Virginia 41.05 58.17 299871 424933
Wisconsin 49.00 39.00 48.00 48.00 49.70 49.40 56.30 42.40 Wisconsin 46.10 52.67 1417615 1619649
Wyoming 37.00 50.00 28.00 68.00 29.10 69.00 32.70 65.20 Wyoming 27.05 71.02 68488 179817
Total 49.00 41.00 48.00 48.00 48.30 50.70 53.00 46.00 Total 45.92 53.63 60128685 70226212



51 posted on 10/25/2012 6:01:56 PM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: Nifster

1980
Nope

Reagan except for a couple years when the GOP had the senate had nothing but an antagonistic democrat congress

1994 till 2006 the GOP held the congress and from 2000-2006 had a GOP congress and president


52 posted on 10/25/2012 6:18:06 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: justiceseeker93; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; ...

Thanks justiceseeker93 and cripplecreek.


53 posted on 10/25/2012 6:19:36 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: justiceseeker93
I thought Coleman lost to Frankenputz. Anyway, I was looking at Presidential tilts. In-state races they occasionally elect a ‘Pub. You have to go back 40 years to see the last time MN went for a ‘Pub candidate for President. That's two solid generations of blue. Cripes, even MA went for Reagan in ‘80 and ‘84.
54 posted on 10/25/2012 7:29:23 PM PDT by chimera
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To: chimera

MN has no voter ID and same-day registration. Anyone can vote if somebody ‘vouches’ for them. Election oversite will be by the Soros SOS project enlistee Mark Ritchie (the former head of ACORN in MN). This is the same SOS that oversaw the endless recounts until Al Franken won.


55 posted on 10/25/2012 7:45:53 PM PDT by Gideon7
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To: chimera
I thought Coleman lost to Frankenputz.

Yes, but only after that phony, fraudulent multiple recount conducted under the auspices of the 'Rat Secretary of State. But Coleman was the incumbent; he had been elected to the US Senate six years before that.

And yes, there was at least one other GOP US Senator in the 1980s: Rudy Boschwitz.

56 posted on 10/25/2012 8:33:10 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: justiceseeker93

I understand that occasionally they go for ‘Pub candidates at the state level. I’m just saying that the recent electoral history of MN does not indicate a lot of support for ‘Pub presidential candidates, and that makes a win by R&R a long shot. That does not mean that they shouldn’t try or that people inclined to vote for them should not do so, because in politics those are the only things we can do.


57 posted on 10/26/2012 6:11:15 AM PDT by chimera
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To: justiceseeker93

Thanks for the ping and for sharing your insights, dear justiceseeker93!


58 posted on 10/26/2012 9:01:54 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: justiceseeker93
The Romney name is big among two groups here.

1. Seniors. George was governor from 63-69. People in their 50's or older remember George. People born in 1945 and earlier had the chance to vote for George. That's important, because there's a large senior population here, and seniors here are more democrat than elsewhere because of unions.

2. Oakland County. That's Mitt's old stomping ground. The family is known there.

Will that make a difference? Maybe.

59 posted on 10/26/2012 9:04:19 PM PDT by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
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