Posted on 10/25/2012 1:16:09 PM PDT by kingattax
The race for Ohio is slowly tightening, but Mitt Romney does not hold a lead in a single poll in the current Real Clear Politics average (he is tied in two). Two polls from Time and CBS/Quinnipiac have grabbed headlines by showing Obama a five-point lead in each.
Romney is chipping away at Obama’s poll lead, but the Democratic advantage in party-ID has increased across these polls.
When looking at the polls in Ohio, it is becoming entirely possible that Mitt Romney should be able to win Ohio without ever showing a consistent lead in the polls, or any lead at all.
~SNIP~
So, with less than two weeks until Election Day we will all know the results soon enough, but as more Ohio polls come in, it is important to remember that the picture for Romney in Ohio is better than many pundits would have us believe.
It only takes a quick look at Romney’s rallies to remind us it’s not 2008 anymore, as Republicans have reclaimed the enthusiasm advantage that led to such sweeping 2008 victories for Democrats.
That GOP enthusiasm has become contagious since the debates, and it is exactly what has Team Obama so afraid these days. All they have left to hang their hopes on is a slim lead in the polls, and even that might not be enough on Election Day.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
There are still plenty of ‘Reagan Democrats’ in Ohio.
And PA and MI, too.
I read that the last Time poll showing Obama winning used a D+9 (d39, r30) sample. That’s a bigger split than the actual results from 2008!
Here’s another way of looking at it...
Pretend there are no polls. Polls do not exist.
Knowing what you do about the economy, foreign policy, the effectiveness of Obama’s programs over the last four years, and everything else - what does your guy say about who should be in the lead, and by how much?
If the polls seem out of whack with what your gut is telling you, maybe that’s because they are.
Polls are the best tools for shaping public opinion and influencing voter turnout and elections since the invention of the mainstream media. They could be flat-out lying or making up what they say is in those polls and who would know the difference?
I understand this line of reasoning. I hope it is true.
But I am a bit concerned today. My sense is that things are close...in Ohio and elsewhere.
I think obama could possible eke out an electoral college victory. In which case, he will be ineffective, but, we won’t get to undo anything.
I also think that Romney could well outperform the polls. That absolutely could happen. It could well be a landslide.
But it might also be very close.......
Which is why I am nervous.
That is a good post.....
So it might be close but it might be a blowout and it maybe will be an O squeaker. Any other possibilities?
“So it might be close but it might be a blowout and it maybe will be an O squeaker. Any other possibilities?”
LOL. That covers all bases. Now we have new political analyst in the making!
What makes me nervous is the early and absentee voting in Ohio. It is ridiculous that you have such an important state with voting going on for a month-long period. Plus, people can submit absentee ballots AFTER election day.
This is a recipe for fraud and monkeying with totals.
I am allowing myself the pleasure of anticipating a Romney/Ryan election victory, because that’s how I roll.
Get in line and sue me.
cuyahoga county??
Cincinatti?
Toledo?
Fraud....... that will be the margin for Obama
Should Obamugabe win, he will be effective and continue his plan to destroy our country, or at least remake it as a Central-Government driven Socialist state. As he has done thus far, he will “govern” by having the un-elected bureaucrats pass his rules that (further) restrict our freedoms and destroy our economy.
Why do you think the Senate has never passed a budget? The answer is: They don’t need to. They operate on continuing resolutions that only escalate our debt supported by an all too willing Republican “majority.” Aside from ObamaCare and these budget resolutions, what legislation has the Congress passed?
Cookbook? What cookbook?
nope. those are the only three.
what is certain is that obama won’t win big.
every other scenario is possible.
Here in mid-MI, Romney signs are everywhere, Very few obama signs.
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