Which indicates you, like the rest of the Dems, are simply ignoring all facts that challenge what your emotion based opinions. Which "State by state" polls are you believing? Rass, Suffox, PPP, ARG and Gavis have Ohio bascially tied and Obama under 50%. The notoriously inaccurate MEDIA polls like CNN and Time are the ONLY thing keeping Obama average up in Ohio. Seems like Silver you are simply cherry picking which polls you want to believe
After all, if the narrative became "Romney is going to win Ohio" then there would be absolutely no suspense left for the LSM to milk in these last 9 days.
If 0hio trends Romney, then the narrative would HAVE to switch to the fact of a GOP landslide, which of course the lamestream media will NEVER do.
0bama is already toast in most of the other states like VA, FL, NC, MO, etc., so the ONLY option to maintaining interest and revenues is for Ohio to APPEAR close.
I just don't see how Romney can have so much momentum nationally, and have Ohio magically buck the trend.
However, if 0bama DOES win Ohio, I'm confident at this point that Romney will pickup enough EV's regardless. Ohio might be enigmatic this election cycle, but it will not be enough to save 0bama.
Silver cherry picks data to serve his goals. In the linked article, he posts a “Probit Regression” which shows the probability of a candidate winning a state vs the polling average. OK, I don’t know what a Probit Regression is, nor do I know his raw data. But, I do know that his plot claims that if the state polls show a tied race, there is a 50-50 chance of that candidate winning the state on Election Day.
Makes sense... unless you’ve been following his data prior to today. Because in the Spring, he crunched the numbers and showed that the challenger tends to outperform the October polls relative to the incumbent. So, according to his own data in the Spring, if a state is tied in the October polls, the challenger has greater than 50-50 odds of winning. But his plot says the opposite.
The “broken glass” gap is worth 5 points for Romney from coast to coast.
People will crawl over broken glass to vote the African communist back to Chicago, while support for Ubama is mostly lukewarm.
No way do any of the polls account for this.
We really need Ohio
Or the planets will have to line up otherwise
Bigtime and Wisconsin becomes a must have
Governor Kasich says Romneys internals have him ahead by a small amount. I say Ohio goes Romney.
It’s hard to believe the majority of voters in Ohio are morons.
If they are, it’s a good state to set up a scam artist business and laugh all the way to the bank.