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To: cripplecreek

I recall a couple of years ago when Bastardi predicted that conditions would be conducive to hurricanes hitting the north-east for the next few years. After Irene and Sandy, I have to say, good call Joe.


4 posted on 10/30/2012 5:59:17 PM PDT by UpstateNYer
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To: UpstateNYer

Nop specific weather event can ever be conclusively “blamed” on climate change. The climate change argument is that in the context of an overall warming trend, the likelihood of extreme events outside of the the standard deviation dramatically increases. This is a “flattening of the curve” that you see as the most likely weather during a given month.

This storm was unprecedented and therefore a “black swan” event that was way off of the likely weather occurrence curve (which is another way of saying climate). If the probability of such an event has now increased due to climate change, then one might see a cause and effect. If it merely was a “royal flush” and the deck of cards is still the same then it was not.

Alas, what I just described is far beyond the comprehension of the average individual so we get massive stupidity on both sides of the debate.


5 posted on 10/30/2012 11:59:07 PM PDT by Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit (Using profanity gives people who don't want information from you an excuse not to listen.)
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