Outright LIe in Wash Post EV Map Video? ("Election 2012: The path to 270 electoral votes")

Washington Post ^ | Nov 2, 2012 | WaPo

[HannibalHamlinJr]

1. I can not excerpt, it's a video.
2. He calls Ohio an Obama state (not a swing, but an assumed O state) for presentation of how Obama virtually can not lose, later he calls Ohio a swing, as he shows how Romney can barely win BUT ...
3. Check my math. Halfway through they give a scenario (very likely one if it's not a landslide) where R gets Ohio but not NM and IA. By my math, Romney wins w/281 (see map below). Yet he claims Romney would still need Wisconsin.
4. The reason I call this a lie, not a stat error, if I'm correct, is that a summary of this video is "Come on, get serious, it's virtually impossible for Romney to win" - you'll understand if you watch.
5. Humbly - I ask - please double check my math. Embarrassed if I'm wrong.

[HannibalHamlinJr]

Am I wrong - or does WaPo claim this very map is a loss for Romney, and that he'd need WI to make up for it?

This whole WaPo video is a total Axelrod piece.

My calculations:

[Perdogg]

here is my prediction

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbAG

[MeanGreen2008]

Iowa is more likely than Nevada.

[oust the louse]

That’s about what I see as well. Let’s hope great minds think alike. No way I can put up with a marxist, narcissistic moron another 4 years.

[MeanGreen2008]

Looks like he got it right to me

[Maringa]

I think there is going to have to be a surprise win in some other states for Romney...because Ohio is making me nervous.

[TomGuy]

Either this election is going to be so close that a few dozen votes in a few dozen states will decide it, thus proving the tightness of the polls,

Or it is going to make the shellacking of 2010 look tame with Romney-Ryan getting more Electoral Votes than Obama got in 2008, thus having the media deceiving their viewers and themselves as they did in the 2004 and 2010 elections.

[I hope we see a blow out Tuesday, the race called for Romney-Ryan by 9:00 EDT, and the Media jumping out their windows in shock.]

[HannibalHamlinJr]

I'm agreed but with addition of PA, MI and IA for 338. That's not an extrapolation of polls or even just reversing skew - I think there's an unmeasured story out there - the catatonic depression of liberals. I believe in record numbers they won't show up - perhaps to the tune of 3%, which is why I think it's a 7 point popular vote.

That said, i've never seen a more partisan presentation even from WaPo, already accepting that their writing is in the tank. This video is over the top, actually entertaining to watch. It's a hit piece hidden behind a humble nerd and slick graphics.

For me, especially this late in the race, this video is the media's crowning achievement not just for reality-ignoring bias, but for actively influencing outcome.

[GeronL]

let us hope

[Gay State Conservative]

My bird won’t even poop on the pages of the Compost.It’s a wholly owned subsidiary of the Rat Party and therefore it’s polls are not to be believed.

[StAnDeliver]

I’m not watching the video bc I’m not giving WaPo any hits but if he claims Romney needs WI on a 281 map perhaps he is foreshadowing what I believe will be the Election Night MSMeme once it’s clear Bobo has lost — which is that Romney didn’t get to 300EV and thus has no mandate.

[StAnDeliver]

"I think there is going to have to be a surprise win in some other states for Romney...because Ohio is making me nervous."

Does your concernnnnnn extend to the PV? Do you expect Romney to win the National Popular Vote? Of course you do. Then read the following....

Gallup	Final	2000	48%		46%
Rass	Final	2000	40%		49%
Natl	Bush	2000	47.9%	50,456,002	48.4%	50,999,897
Ohio	Bush	2000	50%	2,351,209	46.5%	2,186,190
Gallup	Final	2004	49%		49%
Rass	Final	2004	50.2%		48.5%
Natl	Bush	2004	50.7%	62,040,610	48.3%	59,028,444
Ohio	Bush	2004	50.8%	2,858,727	48.7%	2,739,952
Gallup	Final	2008	55%		44%
Rass	Final	2008	52%		46%
Natl	Bobo	2008	52.9%	69,456,897	45.7%	59,934,814
Ohio	Bobo	2008	51.5%	2,940,044	46.9%	2,677,820
Gallup	FnlWk	2012	51%		46%
Rass	FnlWk	2012	49%		47%

In Ohio, the GOP candidate consistently receives votes equal to, or greater than, his National popular vote.

< / argument >

[TonyInOhio]

The Fix, also known as Chris Cilizza, is one of the most ardent Obama ass-kissers in the media. If you’re looking for Lefty conventional wisdom, he’s your man.

[fortheDeclaration]

Ohio will follow the national trend-GOP.

[HannibalHamlinJr]

10 seconds earlier: He claims at this instant that Romney needs Wisconsin in addition to this map - "if he loses IA and NM."

I believe your post comes a bit later, when, having added WI and calculated 281, they remove Wisconsin again, and the EV counter at the bottom remains w/Romney @ 281.

So I believe I'm right, happy to be wrong though.

[HannibalHamlinJr]

Ohio is fine.

Think about it - what is the last line of defense for the media and Axelrod?

1. Ohio (media narrative - it's all that matters)
2. "Romney may win the popular, but not the Electoral"

Ohio is an example of the old saying here that Flack is because you're over the target. All Axelrod propaganda is now invested in Ohio.

Ohio will go 4.5 for Romney.

Do you know that, as of yesterday, Obama's entire 263K '08 victory in Ohio is already wiped out by early voting and ballot requests? See LS's numbers, but also see Rove's WSJ article yesterday which de-emphasizes the significance of the actual math, just as Gallup buried the lede on the 20% swing against Obama in early voting into a final paragraph, presumably so he/they can maintain interest in their conversation.

The conversation is over. Right now media, including Rove and many R commentators, is all about keeping themselves relavent through Nov 7.

But also, they are setting themselves up for a great narrative about "how the polls and media got it wrong!!!!!" ... this analysis will go on for 3 months and spawn a number of books.

At this point, all media, most R media as well, know the race is over, and are collectively developing a narrative that will profit all of them - close race to the finish - grand surprise that it was a blow out.

It was never close.

[ridesthemiles]

[I hope we see a blow out Tuesday, the race called for Romney-Ryan by 9:00 EDT, and the Media jumping out their windows in shock.]””

I don’t think they can call any election before all the polls are closed. Most western states close polls at 7 PM Pacific time.

I am worried about the fact that daylight savings time changes this weekend, and some could show up at the wrong. time to vote.

[YourAdHere]

The Washington Post? Who reads that?

[HapaxLegamenon]

Pretty good, but I think that Romney would also get Iowa.

[Jack Black]

In your map the red states are contiguous. We really do surround them. Start with New Mexico: we have them surrounded!