Skip to comments.PPP: Golly, this VA race is close despite the electorate being 43% Democrat
Posted on 11/01/2012 8:28:44 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I saw this poll late last night, long after getting back from walking with my granddaughters on Halloween, trick or treating in their neighborhood. At first, I thought this new poll from PPP in Virginia was a trick, but by this morning, I considered it more of a treat:
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-46. PPP has conducted 5 Virginia polls during the month of October and found Obama leading in every single one, by an average margin of 2.8 points.
Key findings from the survey include:
-Obama is winning big with women (56/39), African Americans (86/11), and voters under 45 (53/41). Romneys strong groups are men (56/40), seniors (52/45), and white voters (56/39). ...
-Obama continues to have a strong advantage over Romney on the key issues of who voters think will stand up more for the middle class (51/45) and who they think will do more to protect Medicare (50/45). We have consistently found Obama with the edge on these measures in swing states, and it goes a long way toward explaining why hes the favorite in most of them.
So Obama edges Romney in a virtual tie, only getting to 49% in a state that relies heavily on the federal government for its economy. The sample here must be overwhelmingly Republican, right? Not exactly. The D/R/I on this poll is ... wait for it — 43/36/22. Forty-three percent of the respondents were Democrats … and Obama only gets to 49%.
Let’s remind people of what Virginia’s electorate looked like in the 2008 presidential (39/33/27) and 2009 gubernatorial (33/37/30) elections. Is there any data out there indicating that Democrats in Virginia are about to outperform the 2009 election by almost a third — ten points? Or that independents have either decided to stay home or shift in large numbers to the Democratic Party? Even the flawed CBS/NYT/Q-poll released yesterday showed Republican enthusiasm seven points higher than that of Democrats in Virginia.
If an incumbent Obama can't get to 50% in a poll where 43% of the respondents are Democrats in a state where the federal government provides as much of the economy as it does in Virginia, I’d say Obama won’t win the state on Tuesday.
Update: So far, the early voting seems to be showing a tilt away from Obama, if not toward Romney.
Battle Ground already left the State calling it for Romney
Not all registered Democrats are actually Democrats........
Hopium — not only powerful, but ADDICTIVE as well.
Also, just because registered Democrats are voting in VA or OH, doesn’t mean they are voting for Obama... If the “Reagan Democrats” still exist, Romney may be even faring better than what is being reported. We really won’t know until Tuesday. I can’t see Obama winning at this point - I think it will come down to how big a win Romney has.
The tight race in VA is confirmed by having 24 US military ships deploy from Norfolk, VA because of hurricane Sandy and I’m sure they’ll return right after the election. Disenfranchising the military vote happens every presidential election. It is disgusting.
There is no registration by party in VA, these R and D numbers are self identified.
good point I had not thought of that.
So when are all the shoips and personal supposed to be back in VA?
It’s an old Southern method of disrupting the ‘other side’ election-wise. Register as (D) so you can vote for the weakest candidates in the primary, with the hopes that they will be defeated in the general.........
I’ll add that to my list of reasons I love the South!