Skip to comments.Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily (315-223, wow!)
Posted on 11/02/2012 2:34:59 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.
But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.
Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.
That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.
That's been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.
The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.
Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I'll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages -- fully aware that I'm likely to get some wrong.
Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.
Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.
Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.
Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.
New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.
Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.
Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.
Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.
Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.
Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there's no auto bailout issue. Obama.
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
Whatever Michael Barone says WRT elections, I take to the bank.
I never answer them either or if they want to ask questions, I hang up.
Will Barone be working for Fox News on election night? I’ve always looked forward to his analysis as the election unfolds. I didn’t watch much in 2008, so I’m hoping he’s still working as an analyst for them.
“The most important fact that I take away from Barone is that less and less voters answer their phones to participate in polls”
I am thinking the same thing. I think pollsters after this election will have to adjust their polling methods. Very few people are answering their land lines for the pollsters as an example. Some pollsters are still using the 2008 turnout which IMHO is wrong for 1012. I think all of this bodes well for Mitt.
Keep praying and VOTE!
Four days until we find out if Mr. Barone’s limb held or if he is doing his Rocky the Flying Squirrel impression.
How I wish I could be as confident as he seemed to be that the accursed obomination is going to be exorcised from the White House.
This shows he thought Obama was likely to win.
God bless and keep, sweet you.
I’ll settle for 269-269...270-268 would be better....330-208 would better still.
I remember that. Rove was on the money in 08
Barone called Obama a week out not sure he had electoral as big as it was. Barone is conservative and not in to making partisan calls. In fact I believe in 2000. He was the one that called the early Gore call a mistake based on who had reported votes
Please make it be so
We want more than a landslide—we want criminal prosecutions followed by death sentences where warranted.
Despite Rasmussen, it’s been a pretty good day. Barone is the best.
my thoughts exactly...
He was pretty much on target with the 2008 predictions too, though unfortunately he was wrong about Norm Coleman getting reelected.
Michael is indeed a walking encyclopedia of politics and elections. Every time I met him he recognized my last name as being the same as a former mayor of my town (and distant relative) who served in the 1950s! So he seems to know about every precinct in the country.
With that in mind I am encouraged by his prediction. He and Dick Morris are about the only ones saying Romney wins by a large margin. I respect Barone’s opinion but I still am skeptical. If it turns out he is right though, he will be one of the most sought after pundits in every future election.
Wow, this is pretty encouraging. I think i’ll shut er down
now and not read anything else!!
Went to vote today in akron, but line was out the door
with obamma voters,so i left. It was kind of a downer.
Any one in ohio going to the I-X center on Sunday for the