The difference between Republicans and Democrats is that Republicans live in the real world - we face reality, even when it’s harsh. In 2008, we didn’t see these predictions...Republicans knew Obama would win and they didn’t try to hide that fact - they just called it like they saw it.
In 2012, the opposite is happening. Barone and Rove, as well as many other respected pundits are calling it for Romney. Liberals are affirming that Obama will win - but I expect that. No matter how bad it looks, liberals never face reality and will maintain that Obama is winning until about 11pm on November 6th when Mitt and Paul reach 270. Actually they probably won’t admit it even then.
Bottom line: These pundits know their stuff. They aren’t basing it on some fatally flawed monte carlo simulator that I could have built in 10th grade (read: Nate Silver) - they are basing it on years of field experience. I trust them.
This is Nate Silver’s second time predicting Presidential elections and he’s relied on to be some guru?? LOL.
Except in Monte Carlo the drop is uniformly random; Nate is dorking around with loaded D+~n dice.
He was walking back a lot of it on Charlie Rose. Basically what he's saying now, is that his modeling is merely predictive of the odds of an occurrence based on the D+~n inputs.
Which means he's already taking the cowards way out -- blaming it on the polls, instead of his absurd aggregation of those biased, dated polls. Now featuring Zogby-flavored special secret sauce, apparently.
The other thing I noticed on Charlie Rose, is that this doofus thinks he comes across as likable. So I suspect he believes, like every other narcissistic Millenialist I've ever known, that he'll charm his way out of Tuesday's loss.
The reality is, after the election, the NYeT will bury his azz in C18, and make it clear to him that he's damaged goods.
I went over to DUh tonight and the contrast was amazing: here on this site we have people being cautiously optimistic about WMR winning, but over there post after post is already celebrating a zero win. I could NEVER be that certain about a victory until all the votes are counted. Unless they know something that we don’t know :( (widespread voter fraud/tampering)