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Dick Morris: In The Last Few Hours, Sudden Danger Signs In Polling (Christie Hurts Romney)
DickMorris.com ^ | 11-02-2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 11/02/2012 4:40:55 PM PDT by montag813

As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.

With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.

That is troublesome.

And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied. We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan. More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.

All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.

Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.

Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks. But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.

Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.

It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.

Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.

This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it. We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.

Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; election; obama; romney
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To: Diogenesis

The new Laurel & Hardy


51 posted on 11/02/2012 5:11:58 PM PDT by Figment
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To: SE Mom

Oh well, at least we still have Gov. LePage


52 posted on 11/02/2012 5:12:37 PM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: taildragger

Christie = Christ + 250 lbs. - suntan. So it looks like the bowel movement will go to the Dems.
But, the way things are going in NY and NJ, Sandy might be Katrina with zero leaving millions ‘behind’.


53 posted on 11/02/2012 5:13:31 PM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot)
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To: Thane_Banquo
Trust me on this one. Chris Christie has no future in politics as an elected GOP leader beyond the position he now holds. There's simply no way a fat slob from New Jersey will ever garner enough national appeal to win a presidential election. Christie is going to have a hard enough time winning re-election in New Jersey in 2013.

If Chris Christie runs in 2016, he'll be running as the 2016 version of Rick Santorum -- the guy who thinks he could be president even after losing his last election in his own state.

54 posted on 11/02/2012 5:13:45 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: GRRRRR

Fat bastard


55 posted on 11/02/2012 5:16:03 PM PDT by personalaccts (Is George W going to protect the border?)
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To: montag813
This schmuck (Christie) should be finished in Republican politics. It ends here. If he costs Romney the election, he should be persona non grata.

I don't agree with either Christie or you. I don't agree with Christie's praise of Obama because I don't see evidence that Obama did anything to deserve it. However I wasn't there and I am not privy to what Christie saw.

I disagree with everything you wrote even more. In disasters Governors should give credit where it is due and if Christie believes Obama was responsive and helpful then he should say so and should NOT play politics with political disasters. Let the chips fall where they may. It was an act of God.

Furthermore if a single photo-op results in Obama winning an election I don't blame Christie. I blame the idiots that were persuaded on such a shallow basis. In any event if Obama gets reelected given this economy then the U.S. gets what it deserves. This country deserves Obama if it reelects him. In a rational world this would be a blow-out in Romney's favor.

56 posted on 11/02/2012 5:17:09 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: FlingWingFlyer

This election isn’t about either Obama or Romney. It is a test of the American people. If we elect Obama we deserve the destruction that will be inevitable. The American people are on trial. I hope we pass the test. If we don’t, God please make our end come quickly.


57 posted on 11/02/2012 5:17:32 PM PDT by butterdezillion
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To: montag813


VOTE Romney/Ryan

58 posted on 11/02/2012 5:18:34 PM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: montag813

Really hard for me to believe anyone outside NJ or NY care about what Christie does. If anything, common sense would say that the mess that is the NY/NJ area at this point would hurt Obama alot more than help him. But then again: who knows? It seems like common sense and a majority of the American people parted ways a while ago.


59 posted on 11/02/2012 5:18:34 PM PDT by rbg81
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To: smoothsailing

To hell with Morris, I’m going with Barone...

THANK YOU


60 posted on 11/02/2012 5:18:50 PM PDT by 12chachacha
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To: smoothsailing
BARONE SANITY!

Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I'll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages -- fully aware that I'm likely to get some wrong.

Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.

Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.

Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.

Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.

New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.

Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.

Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there's no auto bailout issue. Obama.

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

61 posted on 11/02/2012 5:19:13 PM PDT by GVnana
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To: GVnana
I don't doubt that obama got a minor "presidential" bump from his appearance with Christie. I expect it will evaporate by Tuesday. I also think Christie did us all a favor by exposing once and for all, his willingness to sell out when he thinks it useful. This is the high water mark of his career, and we can be glad we learned it early.
62 posted on 11/02/2012 5:19:43 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Scotswife
everytime the Boy Wonder is given an opportunity to act like a grownup - he fails miserably.

Of all the idiotic Obama quotes, my new favorite is his command to "cut through the red tape," when his middle name is "red tape."

His plea reminded me of the episode of "The Office," when Michael declares bankruptcy one day, in the office, by declaring, "I declare, bankruptcy!"

Obama barely understands the term, has no idea what causes red tape, and is even less capable of cutting through it. The man is utterly incompetent and devoid of any managerial skills.

63 posted on 11/02/2012 5:19:45 PM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: montag813

Typical Morris. He’s been sunshine pumping for months. It’s not easy to defeat an incumbent who is fawned over by the media.


64 posted on 11/02/2012 5:19:48 PM PDT by Jake8898
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To: Thane_Banquo

If Romney wins then I don’t think that there will be an election in 2016. If Obama wins then I know for a fact that there will no election in 2016.


65 posted on 11/02/2012 5:19:52 PM PDT by Revel
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To: smoothsailing
To hell with Morris, I’m going with Barone..

I'll go with you, Barone has always been pretty good.

66 posted on 11/02/2012 5:20:14 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: RoosterRedux

People in jersey aren’t exactly thrilled with Christie or Obama. Did you see the aerial shots of the jersey shore where “Romney” was carved in the sand in big letters.


67 posted on 11/02/2012 5:20:27 PM PDT by jersey117
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To: Thane_Banquo

Christie is done in the GOP.

I predict he switches parties in less than 2 years.


68 posted on 11/02/2012 5:20:31 PM PDT by NoLibZone (I know what it is to be Black,to be hated for who I am, more so than Whoppi does. I'm a Republican.)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
Dickie.... the little toe sucker....

...let me tell you about my next book... what a slimey character...

69 posted on 11/02/2012 5:23:14 PM PDT by ptsal (E)
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To: montag813

“...real Republican Chris Christie...”

Go suck a hooker’s toe, Dickhead.


70 posted on 11/02/2012 5:23:34 PM PDT by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: smoothsailing

I’ll take Barone any day of the week. I remember back in 2004 he was going county by county in Ohio breaking down the vote. The dude is awesome. Also people in NY and NJ are crying about nothing getting done. I dont really see how this helps Odumbo.


71 posted on 11/02/2012 5:25:32 PM PDT by JessieHelmsJr (Tree hugging liberals call it global warming. We call it summertime. FUBO!!!)
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To: smoothsailing

I’ll take Barone any day of the week. I remember back in 2004 he was going county by county in Ohio breaking down the vote. The dude is awesome. Also people in NY and NJ are crying about nothing getting done. I dont really see how this helps Odumbo.


72 posted on 11/02/2012 5:25:35 PM PDT by JessieHelmsJr (Tree hugging liberals call it global warming. We call it summertime. FUBO!!!)
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To: montag813

One or two more days of Staten Islanders crying for help and charging abandonment juxtaposed next to a photo of Obama on the campaign trail should make the Obama-Christie lovefest a distant memory.


73 posted on 11/02/2012 5:25:40 PM PDT by chuckee
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To: NoLibZone

I predict that Christie will be out of politics in two years — or 5+ years if he gets re-elected in 2013. He’s angling for a spot in the Romney administration as the U.S. Attorney General, and if Romney loses he’ll probably just become a lobbyist or a high-priced lawyer or do whatever else people do at his age when their political careers are over.


74 posted on 11/02/2012 5:28:41 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: smoothsailing

Thanks so much for sharing Barone’s prediction. I’ve always respected that man’s vast knowledge. I’m not at all surprised that Morris would backtrack as his predictions have always been way out there. Look forward to his washing off the egg come Wednesday morning when the winner is known — barring any recount.


75 posted on 11/02/2012 5:28:47 PM PDT by StarFan
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To: JoshuaLawrenceChamberlain; montag813

Morris was gushing on Greta’s program on Fox last night saying how Romney was going to win swing states and rack up a surprising number of electoral votes. She told him she’d hold him to it and have him back to celebrate or eat crow after the election. Didn’t take long for him to change his tune from unbridled optimism to expressing concern.

Of course, he’s not the only one: My email is running over with endless requests (pleas) by candidates for more donations to overcome the Rasmussen results.


76 posted on 11/02/2012 5:29:19 PM PDT by CedarDave (Presstitutes: Journalists who refuse to ask hard questions and who report by omission or distortion)
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To: smoothsailing

Thanks so much for sharing Barone’s prediction. I’ve always respected that man’s vast knowledge. I’m not at all surprised that Morris would backtrack as his predictions have always been way out there. Look forward to his washing off the egg come Wednesday morning when the winner is known — barring any recount.


77 posted on 11/02/2012 5:29:28 PM PDT by StarFan
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To: 1_Rain_Drop
How come Morris Romney does not mention Benghazi?
78 posted on 11/02/2012 5:29:51 PM PDT by itsahoot (Any enemy, that is allowed to have a King's X line, is undefeatable.)
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To: all the best

“My concern was that O was going to spend the rest of the campaign in NY and NJ. That would have sealed his deal. I was wrong. He came, he saw, he got his picture taken and then turned tail. The polls will catch up with this before Tuesday.”

EXACTLY

These polls are reflecting the feel-good photo op with Fat Boy. After a couple of days of reality with long lines and traffic and no electricity and no phone service and no food and NO OBAMA to the rescue, the numbers should go back to Romney.

Think about it: with a storm out of the blue to take the subject off Benghazi and a photo-op with Fat Boy covered by a slobbering press, Zero STILL can’t get to 50% in the polls.


79 posted on 11/02/2012 5:32:06 PM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: montag813

I think Morris is making mountains out of molehills. Still we must keep focused on the target.


80 posted on 11/02/2012 5:32:41 PM PDT by Nowhere Man (Whitey, I miss you so much. Take care, pretty girl. (4-15-2001 - 10-12-2012))
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To: montag813

His points are valid and I’ve noticed it too. Never fear though, the media cannot ignore what’s happening and how bad it will get in NY and NJ.

It won’t benefit Obama in the long run. Trust me.


81 posted on 11/02/2012 5:33:09 PM PDT by TheRhinelander
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To: montag813

His points are valid and I’ve noticed it too. Never fear though, the media cannot ignore what’s happening and how bad it will get in NY and NJ.

It won’t benefit Obama in the long run. Trust me.


82 posted on 11/02/2012 5:33:10 PM PDT by TheRhinelander
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To: itsahoot

Mitt has a huge rally tonight in Ohio...so far Rudy and McCain have slammed Barry over Benghazi.


83 posted on 11/02/2012 5:34:31 PM PDT by Miss Didi ("After all...tomorrow is another day." Scarlett O'Hara, Gone with the Wind)
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To: skeeter
I don't know what people thought Christie should do.....he's the governor of a big state...he has to show compassion,cooperation, etc....

its a tricky situation...

don't know what the toe sucker is thinking, but he is hedging his bets just in case...

don't be faint of heart....a large number of people have already voted and most have already made up their minds...

84 posted on 11/02/2012 5:34:49 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Thane_Banquo; montag813
Oh another great *pick* of Ann *Wacky* Coulter into the trash heap of history.


85 posted on 11/02/2012 5:37:24 PM PDT by Daffynition (Self-respect: the secure feeling that no one, as yet, is suspicious. ~ HLM)
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To: GVnana
maybe the fix is in....maybe the SCM pulled a sneaky one...with polling places reporting Romney ahead and suddenly its tied and Shazaammm....the dictator pulls it out...

maybe the vote rigging is working...

somebody tell me something so I don't jump off the deep end...

86 posted on 11/02/2012 5:37:57 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Nowhere Man

“Still we must keep focused on the target.”

I’m curious. Just what action are you personally taking to “keep focused on the target?”


87 posted on 11/02/2012 5:39:25 PM PDT by billhilly
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To: cherry

You do not praise Obama in advance, because he will think he finished.


88 posted on 11/02/2012 5:39:49 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: GRRRRR

During the primary season, Coulter was a fawning, drooling, Christie groupie. She’s probably been interviewed in the past 3-4 days, but I haven’t heard her. Wonder how she feels about her fat hero now.


89 posted on 11/02/2012 5:39:51 PM PDT by MayflowerMadam
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To: montag813
One bit of "good" news here is that Christie has just signed an executive order mandating gasoline rationing in all of northern New Jersey. Even if this was a necessary move, I can't imagine it's going to bode well for any incumbent facing re-election on Tuesday.
90 posted on 11/02/2012 5:40:00 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: Nowhere Man

“Still we must keep focused on the target.”

I’m curious. Just what action are you personally taking to “keep focused on the target?”


91 posted on 11/02/2012 5:40:12 PM PDT by billhilly
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To: itsahoot

Because he’s smart.


92 posted on 11/02/2012 5:40:52 PM PDT by 1_Rain_Drop
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To: Brandonmark

OMG... now THAT IS TALENT.

If you made that, you deserve an award or a prize!

THAT is how that tub of lard should be seen and thought of from here on out.

As far as I am concerned, that turncoat committed suicide.


93 posted on 11/02/2012 5:40:54 PM PDT by Gator113 (I would have voted for NEWT, now it's Romney & Ryan.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: montag813

I’m just not buying it.

I don’t believe the storm helped 0bama in the least. Maybe in NY and NJ.....


94 posted on 11/02/2012 5:41:08 PM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: montag813

Obama threw out some bait to see who would take it. It looks like Christie was the only one who fell for it. I will say it did not do the Romney campaign any good. Shame on Christie for falling for the political trick. Obama is not going to do him any favors.


95 posted on 11/02/2012 5:41:51 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: cherry
I don't think anything Christie did will ultimately help Obama but...

He could have graciously declined the photo opporunity with the president citing his having to deal with the emergency, as did Bloomberg (who actually supports Obama).

He certainly didn't need to crow about what a great guy Obama is in view of the election just around the corner, especially when it was obvious the Obama campaign saw the storm as a heaven sent opportunity.

96 posted on 11/02/2012 5:42:08 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: montag813

I live in Manhattan and I haven’t heard any chatter about how heroic or presidential Barry was this week. Instead people are concerned about friends and loved ones who are struggling without power, heat, gasoline and who have lost their homes.


97 posted on 11/02/2012 5:42:16 PM PDT by Miss Didi ("After all...tomorrow is another day." Scarlett O'Hara, Gone with the Wind)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Right! It was always planned this way. Have Christie give the GOPC
Keynote. Have him travel the e nation savaging Obama. Then when the storm created by the muzzles in IRAN HITS NJ Christie will ride to Obama’s rescue and win the hearts and minds over to Obama. Then Christie who is hated by teacher unions everywhere, who ended lifetime tenure will become a Dem and ride time victory as a pinko muzzie in 2016. Wow I don’t need TV this week. The stuff here makes Homeland look like Lifestyles of the rich and famous.


98 posted on 11/02/2012 5:42:59 PM PDT by xkaydet65
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To: montag813

Self-serving Christie. I don’t think his sucking-up for big bucks fooled anyone. I hope he sold himself because he really cares about his state. But, I have to tell you.....those pictures of them together and the intimate moments and soft voices bothered me.


99 posted on 11/02/2012 5:43:12 PM PDT by FryingPan101 (2016 looms)
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To: GVnana

BRAVO, GVnana, BRAVO!!!

:o)

100 posted on 11/02/2012 5:44:54 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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