Skip to comments.NV EARLY VOTING: GOP NARROWLY WINS WASHOE
Posted on 11/03/2012 6:08:42 PM PDT by sf4dubya
This is pretty big news: GOP won combined Early Voting / Absentee Ballot returns in every single Nevada county including Washoe (Reno) and except Clark (Las Vegas). Obama's ground game outside of Las Vegas was decimated and is nothing compared to what he had four years ago. People were waiting on line in Reno to vote early for hours yesterday.
58.4% of Democrats voted statewide.
59.5% of Republicans voted statewide.
Obama is in big trouble in Nevada. The unions in Las Vegas are going to pull out all the stops, and they have roughly a 48k lead, but it will be the independent and third party registered voters that decide the results of this state.
(Excerpt) Read more at nvsos.gov ...
If true, this means that Romney only has to match the Election Day turnout margin of McCain.
He will do that without batting an eye.
Folks, READ THIS. If this is accurate, Nevada is now “leans Romney” as it pertains to likely outcome.
I heard that there is a significant Mormon population in Nevada. They are going to vote 100% for Romney. I don’t think the polls factor in this fact.
Just about a 13% swing away from Bozo compared to 2008. Although Obama won by 12% in 2008, R&R have more than a shot to pick off Nevada this time around. The unknown factor is just how many early D voters dumped the One?
I can see they know which party the votes are from. How do they know how they actually voted?
More like 99.9999%. I’m almost positive Dingy Harry (a Mormon) will vote for The Kenyan.
Help me out here because I can’t see where your percentages come from.
The Dims end early voting with 48K lead.
How much of the rest of the state is left to vote, and how feasible is it for the pubbies to make up that difference on Tuesday, with the help of the independents of course?
How do we know the vote? What is being reported, the number of voters by DEM/GOP/IND?
If the NRA was effective in exposing Zero’s future gun control plans, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a bunch of Donkey defectors.
WOW. I mean...who would have thought this was even possible?
Do you think we could actually take Nevada?
When I look at those numbers, they make me cry, because Nevada is obviously a Republican state.
Dems dominate Clark County, but nowhere else.
If independents go with Romney, the state will go with Romney.
Another upsetting fact is that without the illegal factor, Nevada would be a Republican state.
It is unfortunate that some on our side believed that cheap labor was more important than our country, because we are just as culpable for allowing the illegal invasion as the liberals.
If we ever allow an amnesty with a pathway to citizenship, our country is finished.
These polls also don’t factor in the crossover vote.
I wouldn’t be surprised if 15 - 20% of the registered Dem votes are gong to Romney.
My guess is that between 350,000 to 400,000 will vote on Tuesday. EV is over. Some AB’s will roll in by snail mail as well. It’s all good folks. I’ve studied this stuff for years but for the real scoop ask Michael Barone. He’s the pro.
gong = going
Help me out here because I cant see where your percentages come from.
I don’t see it either.
Just from my own personal experience, I would think a lot more Democrats will cross over than Republicans. I don’t know anyone who voted for McCain who is voting for Obama this time. I know a lot of people who voted for Obama in 2008 who are either voting Romney or are not voting for president.
Reid just shot off his mouth vowing that Senate Democrats would vehemently oppose Romney’s agenda. That’s the type of rhetoric independents hate to hear.
Maybe he’s in a foul mood because he knows what’s coming.
What this actually says is D+7 in early ballots cast, which is the same as 2008 early voting.
That was also my first thought when I saw the title of this thread.
October 2012 (Close of Voter Registration - General Election)
Active Voters by COUNTY and PARTY
2012 General Election
Early Voting, Absent/Mail-In, Election Day Turnout
Updated: 1:00 pm 11/03/2012
This is what is on my mind: how much gas is left in the SEIU tank?
These Clark numbers may already reflect it in order to try to preload the numbs. That is what I am wondering about. They might have already voted.
Adrian Gray said on Twitter that Washoe finished over 100 votes AHEAD of where Bush was in 04. Now, I don’t think he adjusted for population growth but a lead is a lead.
What’s your math? Rs lead by 5% statewide in EV according to this. Yet someone above says Ds lead by 48k votes.
Anecdotal at best dubya, but my brother-in-law works on the strip and tells me that the typical vans and buses for the SEIU and Culinary workers have been in full swing since the first day of early voting. He didn’t recall the BIG PUSH made so early. Like I said...anecdotal.
In 2008, Obama took most of the Independents. This data shows Independents with 19% of the early vote or 134,000. If Romney takes even 35% of those, he is virtually tied with Obama in early voting (assuming that in early voting Dems are voting for Obama and Reps are voting for Romney).
Obama's campaign made early voting a big part of its ground game. If they've shot the "whole load" in early voting, then Romney has more than a fighting chance here.
In 2008, Obama got 379,000 votes in Clark County and McCain got 256,000. In 2008, Obama won Clark County 58% to 40% for McCain.
In 2012 early voting, Dems register 231,000 votes in Clark County and Republicans register 161,000.
That adds some perspective.
We need Barone to break this down.
QUIT CRYING! ACT LIKE A MAN...
Your Don will take care of Nevada...
Lots of confusion here. 2008, dems were 47% and reps 35% in washoe. Obama won staewide by 11. So washoe is a bellwether. In 2012, reps barely ahead in WASHOE. thats important.
Now clark. They creamed us in 2008 by 51 to 30 in ev dems to reps. Now 2012, dems 47% and reps 33%. This is an improvement over 2008 by a lot b
ut the question to me is it enough?
Outstate is obviously big romney.
WILL WASHOE BE THE BELLWETHET AGAIN.
I am looking at the box in the far bottom right corner labeled “Total Turnout”. It shows D44, R37, I19. If that number isn’t what I think it is, please let me know!
I must be missing something in these numbers. It shows that the breakdown is:
Rat - 307, 877
Rep - 259, 913
Ind - 134, 055
Dems and Reps don't tell the whole story here. About 20% of the EV in both '08 and '12 are Independents. In '08 they went massively for Obama. In '12 Romney should do well with them.
Found some 2008 numbers to compare here http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2124190/posts
Doing math on early vote only(not absentee)
2008: dems: 51.9% reps: 30.6%
2010: dems: 48.2% reps: 32.2%
Net 5.3% swing
2008: dems: 47.1% reps: 35.3%
2010: dems: 40.5% reps: 39.9%
This is shaping up to be a tough state to flip for Romney we know he will far outperform McCain but the expanding democratic demographics in las Vegas just make it tough. Obama won it in 2008 by 12.5% so the good news is that in Ohio he only won by about 4% which means a much easier flip than Nevada. The trends are on Romney’s side for the electoral math and the trends in early voting but Nevada is just tougher due to the minority strengths Obama has in a state like this.
Got a link for the D+7 in 2008. The SOS site doesn’t list early voting by party in 2008 though they do in 2012. According toPolitico Dems won early voting in Washoe in 2008 by 12 points. Republicans have a small majority in Washoe this time. Thats a 13 point swing in Washoe.
You know what? I was mistaken about the 2008 margin. The number I was looking at is a 2012 number found here:
Happens, no biggie.
Statewide Democrats: 526,826
Statewide Democrats EV Turnout: 307,877
% EV Turnout: 58%
Statewide Republicans: 436,799
Statewide Republicans EV Turnout: 259,913
% EV Turnout: 59%
Now let’s look at the two big counties:
Clark Democrats: 390,277
Clark Democrats EV Turnout: 231,350
% EV Turnout: 59%
Clark Republicans: 262,806
Clark Republicans EV Turnout: 160,707
% EV Turnout: 61%
Washoe Democrats: 90,779
Washoe Democrats EV Turnout: 51,753
% EV Turnout: 57%
Washoe Republicans: 91,948
Washoe Republicans EV Turnout: 52,342
% EV Turnout: 57% (I am rounding up a bit here)
Ok, I see. It’s percent of EVs cast as a % of all registered voter . . . Ibthink
I don’t understand what you are missing? If you want a further clarification, see post 39.
Need to GOTV! :)
That is good news. If there isn’t the typical Election Day SEIU surge because it already happened during Early Voting, then our side will be in a much better position.
It is going to be so close up here in Washoe. My neighborhood looks like it was carpet bombed by the Romney campaign.
Remember that early in his term, Obama chastised people for wanting to spend money in Las Vegas. Some have not forgotten that.
So I'm thinking the Clark County vote will not be as strong for Obama as it was in 2008. Now it seemed that either Romney or Obama purchased every single radio ad while I was there so the state is obviously in play for Romney.
OK...I understand. It’s percentages...not percentage of the total vote. Looking at these numbers doesn’t make me feel like Romney has a chance, though.
Yup. You are very correct.
I think Romney will take Nevada. In Clark County Steve Wynn is a very loud and vocal opponent of Obama. I don’t believe Harry really likes Obama, he sure hasn’t been stumping the state to encourage Obama voters.
Nevada really didn’t like hearing people should not come to Las Vegas, even Harry didn’t like that. Our unemployment is sky high, foreclosures the same.
Lots of illegals left for greener pastures when construction tanked. Unions work for guys like Wynn so they may not vote for Obama this time around, especially since our economy is so bad and if it doesn’t turn around they won’t have jobs. Very few blacks here compared to much of the country - Obama voters are white liberals and as said, unions.
In 2008 lots of voters went for Ron Paul, not Obama or McCain. This time I think they will go Romney. They want small government, no federal government in Nevada.
We’ll see, come Tuesday but I think/hope/pray Romney will get Nevada.
Well, you should probably do some research on how EV turnout calculates into election results. A good race to look at is Sandoval’s win two years ago.
Or go down to your local Romney HQ and volunteer to call on Nevada voters.
Didn’t Romney win the Nevada GOP caucus in 2008 and 2012? ;)
A**hat Harry Reid is a Mormon from NV, too. :(