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NV EARLY VOTING: GOP NARROWLY WINS WASHOE
Nevada Secretary of State ^ | 11/3/2012

Posted on 11/03/2012 6:08:42 PM PDT by sf4dubya

This is pretty big news: GOP won combined Early Voting / Absentee Ballot returns in every single Nevada county including Washoe (Reno) and except Clark (Las Vegas). Obama's ground game outside of Las Vegas was decimated and is nothing compared to what he had four years ago. People were waiting on line in Reno to vote early for hours yesterday.

58.4% of Democrats voted statewide.

59.5% of Republicans voted statewide.

Obama is in big trouble in Nevada. The unions in Las Vegas are going to pull out all the stops, and they have roughly a 48k lead, but it will be the independent and third party registered voters that decide the results of this state.

(Excerpt) Read more at nvsos.gov ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Nevada
KEYWORDS: election2012; nevada; reno; romney
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To: woweeitsme

I don’t understand what you are missing? If you want a further clarification, see post 39.


41 posted on 11/03/2012 7:57:35 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: SE Mom

Need to GOTV! :)


42 posted on 11/03/2012 8:14:00 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: Kahuna

That is good news. If there isn’t the typical Election Day SEIU surge because it already happened during Early Voting, then our side will be in a much better position.

It is going to be so close up here in Washoe. My neighborhood looks like it was carpet bombed by the Romney campaign.


43 posted on 11/03/2012 8:23:11 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: sf4dubya
I was in Las Vegas earlier this month. Economy is not going that well there. Some casino projects on the strip have come to a standstill. Casinos themselves not nearly as crowded as in past.

Remember that early in his term, Obama chastised people for wanting to spend money in Las Vegas. Some have not forgotten that.

So I'm thinking the Clark County vote will not be as strong for Obama as it was in 2008. Now it seemed that either Romney or Obama purchased every single radio ad while I was there so the state is obviously in play for Romney.

44 posted on 11/03/2012 8:24:02 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: sf4dubya

OK...I understand. It’s percentages...not percentage of the total vote. Looking at these numbers doesn’t make me feel like Romney has a chance, though.


45 posted on 11/03/2012 8:32:33 PM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: SamAdams76

Yup. You are very correct.


46 posted on 11/03/2012 8:51:54 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: sf4dubya

I think Romney will take Nevada. In Clark County Steve Wynn is a very loud and vocal opponent of Obama. I don’t believe Harry really likes Obama, he sure hasn’t been stumping the state to encourage Obama voters.

Nevada really didn’t like hearing people should not come to Las Vegas, even Harry didn’t like that. Our unemployment is sky high, foreclosures the same.

Lots of illegals left for greener pastures when construction tanked. Unions work for guys like Wynn so they may not vote for Obama this time around, especially since our economy is so bad and if it doesn’t turn around they won’t have jobs. Very few blacks here compared to much of the country - Obama voters are white liberals and as said, unions.

In 2008 lots of voters went for Ron Paul, not Obama or McCain. This time I think they will go Romney. They want small government, no federal government in Nevada.

We’ll see, come Tuesday but I think/hope/pray Romney will get Nevada.


47 posted on 11/03/2012 8:54:32 PM PDT by Duchess47 ("One day I will leave this world and dream myself to Reality" Crazy Horse)
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To: woweeitsme

Well, you should probably do some research on how EV turnout calculates into election results. A good race to look at is Sandoval’s win two years ago.

Or go down to your local Romney HQ and volunteer to call on Nevada voters.


48 posted on 11/03/2012 9:06:28 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: Duchess47

Didn’t Romney win the Nevada GOP caucus in 2008 and 2012? ;)


49 posted on 11/03/2012 9:10:17 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: AaronInCarolina

A**hat Harry Reid is a Mormon from NV, too. :(


50 posted on 11/03/2012 9:12:42 PM PDT by MacMattico
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To: sf4dubya

Yes he did. The Republican Headquarters in Reno threw out Ron Paul delegates. I believe Nye County went Ron Paul, much of Lyon County and several other rural counties. I don’t remember all the details but lots of angry/upset people here then. I was part of the Ron Paul delegation in my county in my precinct voting for our representative. (I didn’t like McCain, have always thought he was a Manchurian candidate.)


51 posted on 11/03/2012 9:25:13 PM PDT by Duchess47 ("One day I will leave this world and dream myself to Reality" Crazy Horse)
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To: radpolis

Its not “some in our country”, respectfully, it’s the damn Chamber of Commerce.
I I have a serious question for the many freepers who are much smarter than I am:

Is there a more powerful Lobby than the Chamber of Commerce?. They seem to have bought off all sides.


52 posted on 11/03/2012 10:26:49 PM PDT by JerseyDvl (Cogito Ergo Doleo Soetoro, ABO and of course FUBO!)
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To: sf4dubya

I was in Washoe County last weekend. I saw about 20 times the Romney signs than Obama. I drove by a house in Reno that I almost bought (bank owned) a few years ago. The person that bought the house lived a few houses down. After buying the house they walked away from their other home. This person had one of the few Obama signs in the neighborhood. Outside Carson City I saw a Toyota Prius with a sticker “Woman for Mitt”!


53 posted on 11/03/2012 10:34:16 PM PDT by willk
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To: sf4dubya

I heard from the local Republican office here in the Southern part of Los Angeles that a bus of volunteers was going over to Las Vegas this weekend to knock on doors for Romney.


54 posted on 11/03/2012 11:13:09 PM PDT by married21 (As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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To: sf4dubya

For those not well-versed in percentages I will illustrate another way.
Of the 701,845 votes cast already, Dems lead Reps by the mentioned 47,964 votes. Now if you assume those Other/Independent 134,055 votes went 55% Romney vs 45% Obama, then that reduces Obamas lead to about 36,000 votes.

Of course as someone mentioned, this model is assuming all Dems cast a vote for Obama and all Reps cast a vote for Romney. For arguments sake, I will assume this to be true (but we all know there are a few Dems crossing over for Romney), and will proceed under that assumption.

So with 1,257,621 active voters in the state this leaves about 555,776 voters yet to cast a vote. Of those 555,776 yet to vote, 366,440 are in Clark county unfortunately.

Safely assume that of the remaining 555,776 voters, that 10% don’t show up or mail in the absentee ballot; so we will call it 500,000 for whole number sake that should vote on Tuesday. Romney would need to win about 55% ( 275,000 ) of those half-million Tuesday votes to win the state by about 14,000 votes.

Obviously there are more registered Dems left to vote than Reps or Independents from the looks of the link, but if the Independents break for Romney - say 3 out of 5 Independents, then that is plus 19,000 votes for Romney out of what looks like about 95,000 Independent voters. I arrive at that by extrapolating that 19% of those 555,776 are not D or R, and then also assume the same no-show of 10%.
555,776 x .19 = 105,597 - 10% = 95,038 Independents.

Likewise, of the remaining 555,776 yet to vote, best guess is 244,541 of those are registered Dems, so about 311,000 that are not Dem (either R or Ind).

As others pointed out, it is tough with the Vegas machine, but if they are a just a bit lazy on Tuesday then Romney can carry Nevada as long as the remaining Republicans show up as well as 60% or more of Independents going for Romney/Ryan. Even with that scenario, the margin will be razor thin and a recount likely.

I did all this math in my head so pardon any mistakes, typos, or seemingly erroneous assumptions.
With Steve Wynn speaking out against Obama for a long time, I suspect some of his employees will respect his wishes and vote Romney or be too embarassed to stop at the polls on the way home from what might be their last shift. LOL.


55 posted on 11/03/2012 11:16:28 PM PDT by Machu Picchu
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To: sf4dubya

For those not well-versed in percentages I will illustrate another way.
Of the 701,845 votes cast already, Dems lead Reps by the mentioned 47,964 votes. Now if you assume those Other/Independent 134,055 votes went 55% Romney vs 45% Obama, then that reduces Obamas lead to about 36,000 votes.

Of course as someone mentioned, this model is assuming all Dems cast a vote for Obama and all Reps cast a vote for Romney. For arguments sake, I will assume this to be true (but we all know there are a few Dems crossing over for Romney), and will proceed under that assumption.

So with 1,257,621 active voters in the state this leaves about 555,776 voters yet to cast a vote. Of those 555,776 yet to vote, 366,440 are in Clark county unfortunately.

Safely assume that of the remaining 555,776 voters, that 10% don’t show up or mail in the absentee ballot; so we will call it 500,000 for whole number sake that should vote on Tuesday. Romney would need to win about 55% ( 275,000 ) of those half-million Tuesday votes to win the state by about 14,000 votes.

Obviously there are more registered Dems left to vote than Reps or Independents from the looks of the link, but if the Independents break for Romney - say 3 out of 5 Independents, then that is plus 19,000 votes for Romney out of what looks like about 95,000 Independent voters. I arrive at that by extrapolating that 19% of those 555,776 are not D or R, and then also assume the same no-show of 10%.
555,776 x .19 = 105,597 - 10% = 95,038 Independents.

Likewise, of the remaining 555,776 yet to vote, best guess is 244,541 of those are registered Dems, so about 311,000 that are not Dem (either R or Ind).

As others pointed out, it is tough with the Vegas machine, but if they are a just a bit lazy on Tuesday then Romney can carry Nevada as long as the remaining Republicans show up as well as 60% or more of Independents going for Romney/Ryan. Even with that scenario, the margin will be razor thin and a recount likely.

I did all this math in my head so pardon any mistakes, typos, or seemingly erroneous assumptions.
With Steve Wynn speaking out against Obama for a long time, I suspect some of his employees will respect his wishes and vote Romney or be too embarassed to stop at the polls on the way home from what might be their last shift. LOL.


56 posted on 11/03/2012 11:16:51 PM PDT by Machu Picchu
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To: Machu Picchu

Your analysis seems sound to me.

Nevada will be very difficult, but not impossible for R/R to carry Tuesday.

In 2008, McCain had already lost it big time before election day even occurred. Not so this year, but still an uphill battle.


57 posted on 11/03/2012 11:52:00 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: jimbobfoster

They don’t know who voted but they have the party affiliation numbers.


58 posted on 11/03/2012 11:57:31 PM PDT by SWAMPSNIPER (The Second Amendment, a Matter of Fact, Not a Matter of Opinion)
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To: randita

My guess is that it’s a bit of an uphill climb for Romney. Best guess has him down about 12,000 votes or so if you factor in crossover of R+3 and an R+7 or so advantage with Independents in early voting.

From a raw total, the Rats are up about 50,000 votes.

Romney will need to win the Election Day vote by about four points in order to eke out a win there.

Doable, but very difficult.


59 posted on 11/04/2012 12:04:06 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: AaronInCarolina

Yes, the Mormon population in NV is one of the highest in the nation and was probably also a factor in why Harry Reid was reelected easily. I also believe the polls are not factoring in higher Mormon turnout. There was some past polling data that showed Mormon participation has barely ever even been tracked in polls in the state. Romney blew out the competition in all the Mormon-heavy states in the primary.


60 posted on 11/04/2012 12:04:09 AM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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