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NV EARLY VOTING: GOP NARROWLY WINS WASHOE
Nevada Secretary of State ^ | 11/3/2012

Posted on 11/03/2012 6:08:42 PM PDT by sf4dubya

This is pretty big news: GOP won combined Early Voting / Absentee Ballot returns in every single Nevada county including Washoe (Reno) and except Clark (Las Vegas). Obama's ground game outside of Las Vegas was decimated and is nothing compared to what he had four years ago. People were waiting on line in Reno to vote early for hours yesterday.

58.4% of Democrats voted statewide.

59.5% of Republicans voted statewide.

Obama is in big trouble in Nevada. The unions in Las Vegas are going to pull out all the stops, and they have roughly a 48k lead, but it will be the independent and third party registered voters that decide the results of this state.

(Excerpt) Read more at nvsos.gov ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Nevada
KEYWORDS: election2012; nevada; reno; romney
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To: sf4dubya

Yes he did. The Republican Headquarters in Reno threw out Ron Paul delegates. I believe Nye County went Ron Paul, much of Lyon County and several other rural counties. I don’t remember all the details but lots of angry/upset people here then. I was part of the Ron Paul delegation in my county in my precinct voting for our representative. (I didn’t like McCain, have always thought he was a Manchurian candidate.)


51 posted on 11/03/2012 9:25:13 PM PDT by Duchess47 ("One day I will leave this world and dream myself to Reality" Crazy Horse)
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To: radpolis

Its not “some in our country”, respectfully, it’s the damn Chamber of Commerce.
I I have a serious question for the many freepers who are much smarter than I am:

Is there a more powerful Lobby than the Chamber of Commerce?. They seem to have bought off all sides.


52 posted on 11/03/2012 10:26:49 PM PDT by JerseyDvl (Cogito Ergo Doleo Soetoro, ABO and of course FUBO!)
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To: sf4dubya

I was in Washoe County last weekend. I saw about 20 times the Romney signs than Obama. I drove by a house in Reno that I almost bought (bank owned) a few years ago. The person that bought the house lived a few houses down. After buying the house they walked away from their other home. This person had one of the few Obama signs in the neighborhood. Outside Carson City I saw a Toyota Prius with a sticker “Woman for Mitt”!


53 posted on 11/03/2012 10:34:16 PM PDT by willk
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To: sf4dubya

I heard from the local Republican office here in the Southern part of Los Angeles that a bus of volunteers was going over to Las Vegas this weekend to knock on doors for Romney.


54 posted on 11/03/2012 11:13:09 PM PDT by married21 (As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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To: sf4dubya

For those not well-versed in percentages I will illustrate another way.
Of the 701,845 votes cast already, Dems lead Reps by the mentioned 47,964 votes. Now if you assume those Other/Independent 134,055 votes went 55% Romney vs 45% Obama, then that reduces Obamas lead to about 36,000 votes.

Of course as someone mentioned, this model is assuming all Dems cast a vote for Obama and all Reps cast a vote for Romney. For arguments sake, I will assume this to be true (but we all know there are a few Dems crossing over for Romney), and will proceed under that assumption.

So with 1,257,621 active voters in the state this leaves about 555,776 voters yet to cast a vote. Of those 555,776 yet to vote, 366,440 are in Clark county unfortunately.

Safely assume that of the remaining 555,776 voters, that 10% don’t show up or mail in the absentee ballot; so we will call it 500,000 for whole number sake that should vote on Tuesday. Romney would need to win about 55% ( 275,000 ) of those half-million Tuesday votes to win the state by about 14,000 votes.

Obviously there are more registered Dems left to vote than Reps or Independents from the looks of the link, but if the Independents break for Romney - say 3 out of 5 Independents, then that is plus 19,000 votes for Romney out of what looks like about 95,000 Independent voters. I arrive at that by extrapolating that 19% of those 555,776 are not D or R, and then also assume the same no-show of 10%.
555,776 x .19 = 105,597 - 10% = 95,038 Independents.

Likewise, of the remaining 555,776 yet to vote, best guess is 244,541 of those are registered Dems, so about 311,000 that are not Dem (either R or Ind).

As others pointed out, it is tough with the Vegas machine, but if they are a just a bit lazy on Tuesday then Romney can carry Nevada as long as the remaining Republicans show up as well as 60% or more of Independents going for Romney/Ryan. Even with that scenario, the margin will be razor thin and a recount likely.

I did all this math in my head so pardon any mistakes, typos, or seemingly erroneous assumptions.
With Steve Wynn speaking out against Obama for a long time, I suspect some of his employees will respect his wishes and vote Romney or be too embarassed to stop at the polls on the way home from what might be their last shift. LOL.


55 posted on 11/03/2012 11:16:28 PM PDT by Machu Picchu
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To: sf4dubya

For those not well-versed in percentages I will illustrate another way.
Of the 701,845 votes cast already, Dems lead Reps by the mentioned 47,964 votes. Now if you assume those Other/Independent 134,055 votes went 55% Romney vs 45% Obama, then that reduces Obamas lead to about 36,000 votes.

Of course as someone mentioned, this model is assuming all Dems cast a vote for Obama and all Reps cast a vote for Romney. For arguments sake, I will assume this to be true (but we all know there are a few Dems crossing over for Romney), and will proceed under that assumption.

So with 1,257,621 active voters in the state this leaves about 555,776 voters yet to cast a vote. Of those 555,776 yet to vote, 366,440 are in Clark county unfortunately.

Safely assume that of the remaining 555,776 voters, that 10% don’t show up or mail in the absentee ballot; so we will call it 500,000 for whole number sake that should vote on Tuesday. Romney would need to win about 55% ( 275,000 ) of those half-million Tuesday votes to win the state by about 14,000 votes.

Obviously there are more registered Dems left to vote than Reps or Independents from the looks of the link, but if the Independents break for Romney - say 3 out of 5 Independents, then that is plus 19,000 votes for Romney out of what looks like about 95,000 Independent voters. I arrive at that by extrapolating that 19% of those 555,776 are not D or R, and then also assume the same no-show of 10%.
555,776 x .19 = 105,597 - 10% = 95,038 Independents.

Likewise, of the remaining 555,776 yet to vote, best guess is 244,541 of those are registered Dems, so about 311,000 that are not Dem (either R or Ind).

As others pointed out, it is tough with the Vegas machine, but if they are a just a bit lazy on Tuesday then Romney can carry Nevada as long as the remaining Republicans show up as well as 60% or more of Independents going for Romney/Ryan. Even with that scenario, the margin will be razor thin and a recount likely.

I did all this math in my head so pardon any mistakes, typos, or seemingly erroneous assumptions.
With Steve Wynn speaking out against Obama for a long time, I suspect some of his employees will respect his wishes and vote Romney or be too embarassed to stop at the polls on the way home from what might be their last shift. LOL.


56 posted on 11/03/2012 11:16:51 PM PDT by Machu Picchu
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To: Machu Picchu

Your analysis seems sound to me.

Nevada will be very difficult, but not impossible for R/R to carry Tuesday.

In 2008, McCain had already lost it big time before election day even occurred. Not so this year, but still an uphill battle.


57 posted on 11/03/2012 11:52:00 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: jimbobfoster

They don’t know who voted but they have the party affiliation numbers.


58 posted on 11/03/2012 11:57:31 PM PDT by SWAMPSNIPER (The Second Amendment, a Matter of Fact, Not a Matter of Opinion)
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To: randita

My guess is that it’s a bit of an uphill climb for Romney. Best guess has him down about 12,000 votes or so if you factor in crossover of R+3 and an R+7 or so advantage with Independents in early voting.

From a raw total, the Rats are up about 50,000 votes.

Romney will need to win the Election Day vote by about four points in order to eke out a win there.

Doable, but very difficult.


59 posted on 11/04/2012 12:04:06 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: AaronInCarolina

Yes, the Mormon population in NV is one of the highest in the nation and was probably also a factor in why Harry Reid was reelected easily. I also believe the polls are not factoring in higher Mormon turnout. There was some past polling data that showed Mormon participation has barely ever even been tracked in polls in the state. Romney blew out the competition in all the Mormon-heavy states in the primary.


60 posted on 11/04/2012 12:04:09 AM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: Machu Picchu

According to a NV blog, Romney was hoping to come out of EV with a 40K or less deficit. Ended up being about 48K.

So it may be a bridge too far.


61 posted on 11/04/2012 5:06:53 AM PST by randita
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To: whitey righty

I just returned from a business trip to Vegas (SEMA). My mother, sister and the rest of her family live out there as well. I had some very interesting conversations with them about the elections and I can tell you just because someone is registered Dem means nothing about how they will vote. Every one of them is registered Dem and all are voting for Romney.

I saw very few Obama bumper stickers as compared to four years ago as well. Although I saw very few Romney stickers, many will not put those stickers on their cars because of the fears of union thugs damaging their cars.

What I did notice were the Large Obama signs in Spanish “Vota Aqui” at all of the early voting places. It looked like our local convenience stores with Lotto signs and I am just a bit concerned about fraud in that regard.


62 posted on 11/04/2012 5:10:26 AM PST by mazda77
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To: sf4dubya

..unless Steve Wynn is in the minority, he may be signaling that the casino\hotel owners have had it up to here with Obama’s destruction of the economy and are on board with throwing him out, using all their power and resources...


63 posted on 11/04/2012 6:35:30 AM PST by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: Kahuna

The unknown factor is just how many early D voters dumped the One?”””

The unknown factor is how many votes have the ACORN groups already got waiting to shift the results???

ACORN splintered itself into a great number of smaller groups, but they are just as evil & willing to cheat.


64 posted on 11/04/2012 7:22:46 AM PST by ridesthemiles
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To: sf4dubya

I am walking precincts this weekend in Las Vegas, just as I did 4 years ago. The Romney campaign seems better organized than the shambolic McCain outfit. I have yet to see an Obama team on the streets, unlike last time where we crossed paths in every precinct. The enthusiasm of the low-propensity/independent voters we are rounding up seems markedly increased this time too. Cautiously optimistic...


65 posted on 11/04/2012 9:32:51 AM PST by ccmay (Too much Law; not enough Order.)
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To: sf4dubya

I oppose any such figures being released prior to the closing of the west coast polls on election day. It lets the RATs know how many votes they have to manufacture or steal.


66 posted on 11/04/2012 9:37:17 AM PST by JimRed (Excise the cancer before it kills us; feed &water the Tree of Liberty! TERM LIMITS, NOW & FOREVER!)
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To: Machu Picchu

What’s interesting about your great analysis is that if Obama carries 90% of Democrats yet Romney carries 95% of Republicans, and your hypothesis carries of Romney carrying 55% of Independents holds, I have Romney currently holding a 1K vote margin statewide.

If you change that to Romney still carrying 95% of Republicans but Obama carries 92% of D’s, Obama holds a lead but only a 11000 vote lead.

The only way the 36,000 vote lead for Obama holds (which is about 53%) is if R’s and D’s are voting the exact same amount of percentage for Romney and Obama respectively.


67 posted on 11/04/2012 9:55:09 PM PST by RightMike
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To: RightMike

I did a little analysis here:

I looked at the internals of two recent polls (I don’t have access to the Rasmussen polls). One had Romney winning independents by 35 points, one had him one winning them by about 8 points. Similarly one had them both O and R winning their own party 91-9 while the other poll had a slight advantage to Romney.

I ran my own numbers based on the following assumptions:

Romney wins 90% of Republicans turning out in EV and ED.
Obama wins 88% of Democrats turning out in EV and ED.
Romney wins 60-40 of Independents turning out in EV and ED.

Out of the remaining voters yet casting ballot, 50% cast ballots, which would put the total about 980,000 voters, which is 20K beyond 2008 which makes sense with population growth.

If you run that number, you get Romney winning by 5,000 votes. This didn’t take into account third parties.

So, if turnout pace remains the same, it appears Romney will have to get a slight crossover vote plus 60% of independents.

By the way, if you go with a 65/35 win (as one poll suggested) for Romney among independents, then the margin expands to about 25,000 votes.

If you go with current turnout pace (50% of remaining voters same pace for everyone), but drop the Romney margin to 58/42 among independents, then Obama wins by 5,000 votes.

If you assume at least an 88/12 vs. 90/10 crossover advantage for Romney, and keep the current turnout pace, the biggest margin I can come up with for Obama is about 17,000 votes or a 1.8% margin, if you took out any third parties.

So either way, very very close. This will not be a 50-45 race as some suggest — the numbers aren’t there for Obama to win by that, right now. A few things that will impact whether Romney wins this are:

1. The difference in turnout percentage among remaining voters of the three different political groups.

2. The amount of crossover vote Romney can get.

3. What the real percentage of independents Romney can get is.

I think evidence points to a narrow Romney win, but it will be tight. I can see why this was a “next tier” effort for the Romney folks, however.


68 posted on 11/04/2012 11:34:57 PM PST by RightMike
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To: Machu Picchu

The thing is — and I decently agree with your methodology — but my thoughts are this:

1. I think the majority of Obama votes by Democrats are in. They will maybe get anywhere from 65% to 70% total turnout, and at least 10% of those Dems will vote NOTA or Romney.

2. The “other” column in the EV turnout numbers are not just indies/unaffiliated voters.

Statewide:

Unaffiliated - 219,299
Independent American - 58,130
Libertarian - 8,448

Think about that for a minute — the third most popular party in the state is IAP. Nevada is very much a small l libertarian state.

So I may be nuts, but this is what I think is going to happen:

Dems get 68% turnout, 5% of that goes to Romney, and 5% to NOTA or someone else. 322,515

GOP get 70% turnout, 9% of that Romney loses to NOTA or someone else, 1% goes to Obama (yes, we have people like that). 275,183

Indies and third parties get 55% turnout. Of that turnout, IAP/Libertarian/other gives Romney 50% of their votes. Greens give half their votes to Obama, the rest to Jill Stein. Indies go 55% to Romney, and 35% to Obama.

Which brings us to:

Romney 379,610
Obama 369,278

So that is why they keep sending Paul Ryan to the northern part of the state. All they have to do is widen the spread of turnout between Republicans and Democrats, plus remind half of the conservative non-Republicans in the state why Obama has to go.

People are basing this off of 2008. That is flawed, because a good chunk of this state’s Republicans couldn’t stand Mr. Amnesty, and Early Voting was novelty when now entire statewide campaigns are formed around it. People need to base this off of Sandoval (or Krolicki for something not so 53% ish).

http://www.nvsos.gov/soselectionpages/results/2010STatewideGeneral/ElectionSummary.aspx


69 posted on 11/05/2012 5:07:51 AM PST by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: jwalsh07

Ping to #69


70 posted on 11/05/2012 6:11:15 AM PST by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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