Skip to comments.NV EARLY VOTING: GOP NARROWLY WINS WASHOE
Posted on 11/03/2012 6:08:42 PM PDT by sf4dubya
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According to a NV blog, Romney was hoping to come out of EV with a 40K or less deficit. Ended up being about 48K.
So it may be a bridge too far.
I just returned from a business trip to Vegas (SEMA). My mother, sister and the rest of her family live out there as well. I had some very interesting conversations with them about the elections and I can tell you just because someone is registered Dem means nothing about how they will vote. Every one of them is registered Dem and all are voting for Romney.
I saw very few Obama bumper stickers as compared to four years ago as well. Although I saw very few Romney stickers, many will not put those stickers on their cars because of the fears of union thugs damaging their cars.
What I did notice were the Large Obama signs in Spanish “Vota Aqui” at all of the early voting places. It looked like our local convenience stores with Lotto signs and I am just a bit concerned about fraud in that regard.
..unless Steve Wynn is in the minority, he may be signaling that the casino\hotel owners have had it up to here with Obama’s destruction of the economy and are on board with throwing him out, using all their power and resources...
The unknown factor is just how many early D voters dumped the One?”””
The unknown factor is how many votes have the ACORN groups already got waiting to shift the results???
ACORN splintered itself into a great number of smaller groups, but they are just as evil & willing to cheat.
I am walking precincts this weekend in Las Vegas, just as I did 4 years ago. The Romney campaign seems better organized than the shambolic McCain outfit. I have yet to see an Obama team on the streets, unlike last time where we crossed paths in every precinct. The enthusiasm of the low-propensity/independent voters we are rounding up seems markedly increased this time too. Cautiously optimistic...
I oppose any such figures being released prior to the closing of the west coast polls on election day. It lets the RATs know how many votes they have to manufacture or steal.
What’s interesting about your great analysis is that if Obama carries 90% of Democrats yet Romney carries 95% of Republicans, and your hypothesis carries of Romney carrying 55% of Independents holds, I have Romney currently holding a 1K vote margin statewide.
If you change that to Romney still carrying 95% of Republicans but Obama carries 92% of D’s, Obama holds a lead but only a 11000 vote lead.
The only way the 36,000 vote lead for Obama holds (which is about 53%) is if R’s and D’s are voting the exact same amount of percentage for Romney and Obama respectively.
I did a little analysis here:
I looked at the internals of two recent polls (I don’t have access to the Rasmussen polls). One had Romney winning independents by 35 points, one had him one winning them by about 8 points. Similarly one had them both O and R winning their own party 91-9 while the other poll had a slight advantage to Romney.
I ran my own numbers based on the following assumptions:
Romney wins 90% of Republicans turning out in EV and ED.
Obama wins 88% of Democrats turning out in EV and ED.
Romney wins 60-40 of Independents turning out in EV and ED.
Out of the remaining voters yet casting ballot, 50% cast ballots, which would put the total about 980,000 voters, which is 20K beyond 2008 which makes sense with population growth.
If you run that number, you get Romney winning by 5,000 votes. This didn’t take into account third parties.
So, if turnout pace remains the same, it appears Romney will have to get a slight crossover vote plus 60% of independents.
By the way, if you go with a 65/35 win (as one poll suggested) for Romney among independents, then the margin expands to about 25,000 votes.
If you go with current turnout pace (50% of remaining voters same pace for everyone), but drop the Romney margin to 58/42 among independents, then Obama wins by 5,000 votes.
If you assume at least an 88/12 vs. 90/10 crossover advantage for Romney, and keep the current turnout pace, the biggest margin I can come up with for Obama is about 17,000 votes or a 1.8% margin, if you took out any third parties.
So either way, very very close. This will not be a 50-45 race as some suggest — the numbers aren’t there for Obama to win by that, right now. A few things that will impact whether Romney wins this are:
1. The difference in turnout percentage among remaining voters of the three different political groups.
2. The amount of crossover vote Romney can get.
3. What the real percentage of independents Romney can get is.
I think evidence points to a narrow Romney win, but it will be tight. I can see why this was a “next tier” effort for the Romney folks, however.
The thing is — and I decently agree with your methodology — but my thoughts are this:
1. I think the majority of Obama votes by Democrats are in. They will maybe get anywhere from 65% to 70% total turnout, and at least 10% of those Dems will vote NOTA or Romney.
2. The “other” column in the EV turnout numbers are not just indies/unaffiliated voters.
Unaffiliated - 219,299
Independent American - 58,130
Libertarian - 8,448
Think about that for a minute — the third most popular party in the state is IAP. Nevada is very much a small l libertarian state.
So I may be nuts, but this is what I think is going to happen:
Dems get 68% turnout, 5% of that goes to Romney, and 5% to NOTA or someone else. 322,515
GOP get 70% turnout, 9% of that Romney loses to NOTA or someone else, 1% goes to Obama (yes, we have people like that). 275,183
Indies and third parties get 55% turnout. Of that turnout, IAP/Libertarian/other gives Romney 50% of their votes. Greens give half their votes to Obama, the rest to Jill Stein. Indies go 55% to Romney, and 35% to Obama.
Which brings us to:
So that is why they keep sending Paul Ryan to the northern part of the state. All they have to do is widen the spread of turnout between Republicans and Democrats, plus remind half of the conservative non-Republicans in the state why Obama has to go.
People are basing this off of 2008. That is flawed, because a good chunk of this state’s Republicans couldn’t stand Mr. Amnesty, and Early Voting was novelty when now entire statewide campaigns are formed around it. People need to base this off of Sandoval (or Krolicki for something not so 53% ish).
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