If true, this means that Romney only has to match the Election Day turnout margin of McCain.
He will do that without batting an eye.
Folks, READ THIS. If this is accurate, Nevada is now “leans Romney” as it pertains to likely outcome.
I heard that there is a significant Mormon population in Nevada. They are going to vote 100% for Romney. I don’t think the polls factor in this fact.
Just about a 13% swing away from Bozo compared to 2008. Although Obama won by 12% in 2008, R&R have more than a shot to pick off Nevada this time around. The unknown factor is just how many early D voters dumped the One?
I can see they know which party the votes are from. How do they know how they actually voted?
Help me out here because I can’t see where your percentages come from.
The Dims end early voting with 48K lead.
How much of the rest of the state is left to vote, and how feasible is it for the pubbies to make up that difference on Tuesday, with the help of the independents of course?
How do we know the vote? What is being reported, the number of voters by DEM/GOP/IND?
WOW. I mean...who would have thought this was even possible?
Do you think we could actually take Nevada?
When I look at those numbers, they make me cry, because Nevada is obviously a Republican state.
Dems dominate Clark County, but nowhere else.
If independents go with Romney, the state will go with Romney.
Another upsetting fact is that without the illegal factor, Nevada would be a Republican state.
It is unfortunate that some on our side believed that cheap labor was more important than our country, because we are just as culpable for allowing the illegal invasion as the liberals.
If we ever allow an amnesty with a pathway to citizenship, our country is finished.
My guess is that between 350,000 to 400,000 will vote on Tuesday. EV is over. Some AB’s will roll in by snail mail as well. It’s all good folks. I’ve studied this stuff for years but for the real scoop ask Michael Barone. He’s the pro.
Reid just shot off his mouth vowing that Senate Democrats would vehemently oppose Romney’s agenda. That’s the type of rhetoric independents hate to hear.
Maybe he’s in a foul mood because he knows what’s coming.
Adrian Gray said on Twitter that Washoe finished over 100 votes AHEAD of where Bush was in 04. Now, I don’t think he adjusted for population growth but a lead is a lead.
I must be missing something in these numbers. It shows that the breakdown is:
Rat - 307, 877
Rep - 259, 913
Ind - 134, 055
Found some 2008 numbers to compare here http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2124190/posts
Doing math on early vote only(not absentee)
2008: dems: 51.9% reps: 30.6%
2010: dems: 48.2% reps: 32.2%
Net 5.3% swing
2008: dems: 47.1% reps: 35.3%
2010: dems: 40.5% reps: 39.9%
This is shaping up to be a tough state to flip for Romney we know he will far outperform McCain but the expanding democratic demographics in las Vegas just make it tough. Obama won it in 2008 by 12.5% so the good news is that in Ohio he only won by about 4% which means a much easier flip than Nevada. The trends are on Romney’s side for the electoral math and the trends in early voting but Nevada is just tougher due to the minority strengths Obama has in a state like this.
I think Romney will take Nevada. In Clark County Steve Wynn is a very loud and vocal opponent of Obama. I don’t believe Harry really likes Obama, he sure hasn’t been stumping the state to encourage Obama voters.
Nevada really didn’t like hearing people should not come to Las Vegas, even Harry didn’t like that. Our unemployment is sky high, foreclosures the same.
Lots of illegals left for greener pastures when construction tanked. Unions work for guys like Wynn so they may not vote for Obama this time around, especially since our economy is so bad and if it doesn’t turn around they won’t have jobs. Very few blacks here compared to much of the country - Obama voters are white liberals and as said, unions.
In 2008 lots of voters went for Ron Paul, not Obama or McCain. This time I think they will go Romney. They want small government, no federal government in Nevada.
We’ll see, come Tuesday but I think/hope/pray Romney will get Nevada.
I was in Washoe County last weekend. I saw about 20 times the Romney signs than Obama. I drove by a house in Reno that I almost bought (bank owned) a few years ago. The person that bought the house lived a few houses down. After buying the house they walked away from their other home. This person had one of the few Obama signs in the neighborhood. Outside Carson City I saw a Toyota Prius with a sticker “Woman for Mitt”!
For those not well-versed in percentages I will illustrate another way.
Of the 701,845 votes cast already, Dems lead Reps by the mentioned 47,964 votes. Now if you assume those Other/Independent 134,055 votes went 55% Romney vs 45% Obama, then that reduces Obamas lead to about 36,000 votes.
Of course as someone mentioned, this model is assuming all Dems cast a vote for Obama and all Reps cast a vote for Romney. For arguments sake, I will assume this to be true (but we all know there are a few Dems crossing over for Romney), and will proceed under that assumption.
So with 1,257,621 active voters in the state this leaves about 555,776 voters yet to cast a vote. Of those 555,776 yet to vote, 366,440 are in Clark county unfortunately.
Safely assume that of the remaining 555,776 voters, that 10% don’t show up or mail in the absentee ballot; so we will call it 500,000 for whole number sake that should vote on Tuesday. Romney would need to win about 55% ( 275,000 ) of those half-million Tuesday votes to win the state by about 14,000 votes.
Obviously there are more registered Dems left to vote than Reps or Independents from the looks of the link, but if the Independents break for Romney - say 3 out of 5 Independents, then that is plus 19,000 votes for Romney out of what looks like about 95,000 Independent voters. I arrive at that by extrapolating that 19% of those 555,776 are not D or R, and then also assume the same no-show of 10%.
555,776 x .19 = 105,597 - 10% = 95,038 Independents.
Likewise, of the remaining 555,776 yet to vote, best guess is 244,541 of those are registered Dems, so about 311,000 that are not Dem (either R or Ind).
As others pointed out, it is tough with the Vegas machine, but if they are a just a bit lazy on Tuesday then Romney can carry Nevada as long as the remaining Republicans show up as well as 60% or more of Independents going for Romney/Ryan. Even with that scenario, the margin will be razor thin and a recount likely.
I did all this math in my head so pardon any mistakes, typos, or seemingly erroneous assumptions.
With Steve Wynn speaking out against Obama for a long time, I suspect some of his employees will respect his wishes and vote Romney or be too embarassed to stop at the polls on the way home from what might be their last shift. LOL.