What this actually says is D+7 in early ballots cast, which is the same as 2008 early voting.
What’s your math? Rs lead by 5% statewide in EV according to this. Yet someone above says Ds lead by 48k votes.
In 2008, Obama took most of the Independents. This data shows Independents with 19% of the early vote or 134,000. If Romney takes even 35% of those, he is virtually tied with Obama in early voting (assuming that in early voting Dems are voting for Obama and Reps are voting for Romney).
Obama's campaign made early voting a big part of its ground game. If they've shot the "whole load" in early voting, then Romney has more than a fighting chance here.
In 2008, Obama got 379,000 votes in Clark County and McCain got 256,000. In 2008, Obama won Clark County 58% to 40% for McCain.
In 2012 early voting, Dems register 231,000 votes in Clark County and Republicans register 161,000.
That adds some perspective.
We need Barone to break this down.
Lots of confusion here. 2008, dems were 47% and reps 35% in washoe. Obama won staewide by 11. So washoe is a bellwether. In 2012, reps barely ahead in WASHOE. thats important.
Now clark. They creamed us in 2008 by 51 to 30 in ev dems to reps. Now 2012, dems 47% and reps 33%. This is an improvement over 2008 by a lot b
ut the question to me is it enough?
Outstate is obviously big romney.
WILL WASHOE BE THE BELLWETHET AGAIN.
Got a link for the D+7 in 2008. The SOS site doesn’t list early voting by party in 2008 though they do in 2012. According toPolitico Dems won early voting in Washoe in 2008 by 12 points. Republicans have a small majority in Washoe this time. Thats a 13 point swing in Washoe.
I just returned from a business trip to Vegas (SEMA). My mother, sister and the rest of her family live out there as well. I had some very interesting conversations with them about the elections and I can tell you just because someone is registered Dem means nothing about how they will vote. Every one of them is registered Dem and all are voting for Romney.
I saw very few Obama bumper stickers as compared to four years ago as well. Although I saw very few Romney stickers, many will not put those stickers on their cars because of the fears of union thugs damaging their cars.
What I did notice were the Large Obama signs in Spanish “Vota Aqui” at all of the early voting places. It looked like our local convenience stores with Lotto signs and I am just a bit concerned about fraud in that regard.