Posted on 11/04/2012 7:10:54 AM PST by Arec Barrwin
1. Here are the 2008 early vote totals from the early voting project at George Mason
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
2. Download the Excel Spreadsheet on Early Voting from OH SOS
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/Upload/news/2012/Early_Voting_Report_2012-11-02.xls
3. You will notice that OH early voting is just like VA early voting. Cuyahoga and Summit are 2 of the top 4 Democratic counties. Cuyahoga is at 95% of 2008 totals and Summit just about the same at 100% of 2008 totals. On average across the state, about a 2-3% decline in Democratic counties.
4. But look at the Republican counties. They are little by themselves but they add up. Union County had 3324 total EV in 2008 and has 7500 in now. Tuscarawas had 9339 in 2008 and 16000 now. Muskingum had 6629 in 2008 but 11900 now. You can find similar results in EVERY single Republican stronghold.
Cuyahoga in 2008 was almost the same as 2004. The difference in Ohio from 2008 to 2012 was the massive dropoff in support for McCain from Republican and swing counties. The (R) enthusiasm is not only back, but it is stronger than ever before.
Why more people aren't doing this kind of analysis is beyond me. Just look at the EV totals released by the states and you can see what is happening.
If I'm reading the numbers wrong, please tell me. But it seems that the OH and VA numbers by county tell the tale -- small decreases in the Democratic areas but huge increases in Republican areas.
Also missing in the MSM reporting is how many dems who voted early voted for Romney....
My guess is lots and lots did...
Huge increases in early voting only matter if it affects the final vote tally. That’s the question: would these early voters NOT have voted on election day?
I’m certain Romney is going to win big, but I could care less about who decides to get in line first to vote.
Very good analysis. Another would be to take the counties won by kerry/obama and compare to bush/mccain counties. Swing counties would be bush/obama counties. Their increase may indicate increased republican enthusiasm not necessarily democratic.
Another point to keep in mind. That’s what wasserman has been doing in VA for cook political.
Time for people to ‘buck up’ and stay strong!!!
Missing from the analysis will be the fact that, there are a lot of democrats with a lot of time on their hands, and so, have a lot more free time to go vote, while, republicans are busy earning a living, and won’t have as much time to head to the early election sites.
Exactly right. How many of the Dem early voters are Reagan Democrats again or Operation Chaos holdovers.
Similar in dynamic in Nevada.
That’s even before people get to the polls Tuesday.
Nothing indicates O’s Campaign is in good shape.
The polls only conceal the state of its collapse. People have no clue as to what’s going on.
Bill Cunningham on Hannity 11/2/2012 (Romney will win Ohio and Wisconsin)
http://barracudabrigade.blogspot.com/2012/11/obamas-katrina-bill-cunningham-with.html
Last night Michael Barone on "Huckabee" said that the increased 2012 turnout in small Republican counties would allow Romney to win Ohio.
Yes, I have looked at the Nevada numbers very closely. Nevada is looking good but it is much tougher because we have so much farther to go there. Washoe County is looking just like 2004 so far, but Romney needs independents to win. Nevada will go right down to the wire.
Bottom line - any state that Obama won by 10% or less in 2008 is either trending Romney or is essentially tied.
There is no early voting in PA, and where I live there isn't a Romney ground game. I live in a Republican county, that went for McCain in 2008, but a lot of Republicans voted for Obama and some stayed home. From what I have observed, the lost Republican vote is coming home. County wide, this probably amounts to 5 to 6 thousand votes going to Romney that McCain didn't get in 2008. If that repeats itself for other 60 Republican counties in PA, Romney is going to win. (BTW, PA is a red state on the county level. There are only 7 or so really Democratic counties in the state)
Yesterday both candidates had rallies in Ohio. Obama drew 2,800 — Romney 30,000 !
That’s voter enthusiasm.
Stevie Wonder just had an Ohio concert for Obama that only drew 200 people because it was poorly publicized—that’s campaign malpractice by ‘’Bronco Bamas” team.
FWIW. Here’s a local article (Portage co. OH) which went to Obama in 08 (54-46). I believe the Repub uptick is due to the hard work of our local Teaparty group. We are very organized and relentless. All polling stations will have members present on election day from open to close. I’m scheduled for the morning, will check in and give updates. My instincts are telling me Portage is going to Romney.
GOP surge surpasses Dems on Portage voter rolls
By Mike Sever | staff writer/Record Courier
Portage County’s majority political organization is now the Republican Party although far more voters remain unaffiliated with eithe GOP or the Democrats, according to voter registration statistics from the county board of elections.
As of Monday, Oct. 22, registration totaled 108,287 voters, a 4,540 increase from the spring primary election.
That total was split among 14,206 registered Republicans and 9,973 Democrats. That’s a 5,864 voter increase for the GOP and a 1,612 drop for Democrats from the primary.
The number of voters who declared no party affiliation was 84,043, a minimal 223 registration increase from the primary.
The numbers will change by Election Day, according to Faith Lyon, director of the Portage County Board of Elections. The local board is still processing registration info it receives from the Secretary of State in Columbus. Workers also are verifying the status of people who filed changes of address and making sure voters do not have duplicate registrations, Lyon said.
http://www.recordpub.com/news/article/5225009
I came to this thread soecifically to post exactly what you said. They keep touting the early dem voting, but I’ll bet that at least a third of them are for Romney.
Yeah; as usual, the Dem's in Cuyahoga have voted early, and MANY will vote again at the Polls on Tuesday, for The Messiah....count on it.
Let me spell out the (obvious) case why Romney will trounce Obama in Ohio:
1) Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 4.5%. McCain was a terrible, under-funded candidate; Obama was fresh, unknown, and NOT Bush. Four years later, Obama is a known quantity with a bad economic record and a ton of baggage. He obviously is in worse political shape than 2008.
2) Every state that borders Ohio is either overwhelmingly for Romney/Ryan, or is obviously moving in that direction. West Va. dems voted 43% for a FELON in the dem primary in May. Kentucky dems voted 41% “uncommitted” instead of for Obama. Obama won Indiana by a point in 2008; he will lose by 15 to 20 points this year. And now credible polls are showing that Romney is within strking distance in Pa. and Mich. Does anyone reasonably believe that the Ohio border somehow magically seals off the discontent for Obama in bordering states? I don’t think so.
3) The biggest myth about Obama’s 2008 win was that there was this massive turnout for dems. Not so. In fact, Obama rec’d far less votes than John Kerry. There was a precipitous drop-off of working-class white dems in Ohio, and an even bigger drop-off of Republicans and evangelicals. Does anyone reasonably expect that blue collar white dems are going to come roaring out for Obama in 2012. Hell no. He never had these John Kerry-democrats, and he never will get them. Obama’s big problem is that blacks, students, young people, etc. won’t post, which is what we are seeing in the early vote numbers.
4) Obama is weaker with every demographic. He will lose a small percentage of jewish votes around Cleveland and Cincinnat; his gay marriage stance will cost him a small sliver of black votes; conservative Catholics in Southern Ohio are ticked off about the contraception mandate. Please, someone out there name me one demographic group that Obama is doing better with in 2012? White, female reporters who work for MSNBC?
5) Ohio is a Republican state. Republican candidates in Ohio always outperform the national polls by 2 to 3 percent.
6) I’m from Cincinnati, but in I live in the DC suburbs. Obama is playing non-stop abortion and gay rights ads on Northern Virginia radio. His campaign obviously sees that turnout among the young dingbats is dicey. Imagine what we would be thinking if Romney were running pro-life and pro-gun ads in the week before the election.
So, please, everyone stop worrying about Ohio. Just get out and vote.
Here’s the myth that Axelrod propagated - Obama ground game and EV won Ohio in 2008 - that is wrong. The Cuyahoga numbers from 2008 were almost identical to 2004. It was, in fact, John Kerry that got the Cuyahoga numbers way up (in his case from 2000), not Obama. All Obama / Axelrod did was maintain the Kerry numbers and siphon off (R) support in (R) counties and swing counties like Wood.
I saw pix on the internet tubes, (can’t remember where), that had Romney at a rally with a lot of attendees wearing “Democrats for Romney” T shirts. I don’t imagine there is a single Republican for Obama out there now.
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