Skip to comments.PPP: Obama leads in Ohio(+5) and Virginia(+4) (Also Obama up +2 in Iowa, N.H.)
Posted on 11/04/2012 7:09:03 PM PST by tcrlaf
PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.
In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.
Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.
It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.
Democrats are also well positioned to win the US Senate races in each of these states. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 52/46 in Virginia's open seat race and Sherrod Brown's up 54/44 for reelection against Josh Mandel. It's a similar story in both states. Voters like the Democratic candidates- Brown has a 48/43 approval rating and Kaine has a 50/40 favorability rating. They don't much care for the Republican contenders- Mandel's favorability is 36/50, Allen's is 42/48.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Over the summer PPP missed the Walker recall by 4 points. They also published a poll saying majority of North Carolinians supported gay marriage about 2 weeks AFTER “traditional” marriage won at the (actual) polls in a huge way.
Oh shut it.
Not the questions, the sampling. PPP is a Democrat polling firm and they are taking way too many D samples. Rass puts a more realistic model. If you ran the same sample of D/R/I these polls wouldn’t vary by much.
Yep they sure did..with Indies going to Romney +22..if thats true then ADIOS OBAMA
What I see is a lot of posturing on both sides and a lot of wishful thinking. Both sides declaring landslides. It has really gotten ridiculous.
He won by 7. so they were -4 on Walker, apply that here (+4 Romney -4 Obama_ that is a solid Romney win. Also there were sites that had it +1 or +2 either way right before wisconsin election.
I thought Obama was toast awhile ago (based on a number of things including the polls oversampling Democrats to keep Obama afloat).
It’s in the bag.
Dems aren’t as motivated, more of them have switched. VERY few Repubs(hah!) have switched.
Independents breaking 2 or 3 to 1.
Buddy of mine in Missouri took a first time voter, and 2 80-year old life-long dems to the polls yesterday to vote for Romney and oh yes, Todd Akin.
Akin wins Missouri- my prediction.
Romney sweeps, and we take the Senate. Breath deep, sleep well and vote Tuesday!
I also want to add that those ties are probably cya for Ras, those states that are ties will become decisive wins.
I’ll say. What’s with the onslaught of polls that have Obama up. We get it...MSM, you want us to believe that Obama is going to win. How original of you.
The MSM is so pathetic. I believe Karl Rove and Barone before I believe all of these polls that are skewed to benefit Democrats.
The truth shall be revealed on Tuesday. Frankly, I can’t wait because I’m tired of the games. Please vote and take friends and neighbors with you. Call your neighbors and ask them if they want a ride! We’ve got the enthusiasm, the Dems don’t. We just need to transfer that enthusiasm into votes for Romney!
Please think about what you are saying.
You look really stupid with this post.
PPP-—Preposterous Push Polling.
Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: The Sunday evening (semi-final) edition
by Steve Singise
As if anyone needed more evidence that the 2012 election cycle was headed into the final few meters of the marathon, check this stat out: with more polls to come on Monday, we have logged a grand total of 132 polls to the 2012 database. And that is in roughly 48 hours, since the power issues back in NYC delayed the Wrap on Friday until approximately this time in the evening.
With such a mountain of data, it is easier than normal to draw conclusions. And, by and large, it is hard for Democrats not to be encouraged by the avalanche of numbers cascading down this weekend.
For the first time in a long time, there is a semi-consensus in the national polls, and it is good news for the incumbent. Despite some wildly variable individual polling in the state surveys, the critical mass of data points to a considerably easier path to 270 electoral votes for President Obama than it does for Mitt Romney.
My sister was just polled by Rasmussen. She said dhe felt like she had just won the Lotto.
PPP had Scott Walker leading his recall race about two weeks befroe the recall election. Then just before the recall, they came out with a tightened race, saying it was now even. Scott Walker won his recall easily by seven (7) points, virtual landslide!!! PPP speaks with forked tongue!!!
this makes me sick
What do you expect from the Daily Kos?
It is quite maddening. Not only do we eat different chicken, we pay attention to different polls and live in alternate universes.
I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m sick of it. I can ignore the Dems on average days. However, we have a Presidential election in 48 hours. I’d like answers. I’d like truth. I don’t want these warped polls. You’re right—the leftists are convinced that Obama will win in a landslide. Have you checked out those crazy sites lately? They’re all ready popping the champagne corks.
Idiots. I really will be glad when this election is over. I’m going to canvass all day tomorrow for Romney and keep my mind off of the lunacy. That way, when we win on Tues, I’ll be much more relaxed.
Sez who? I don’t buy it.
And this on the heels of Cincinnatti-based Kroger company (KR), about to reduce or layoff thousands of hourly workers to reduce the costs of Obamacare. See Doug Ross Journal.
I sure hope its a landslide because I think they are trying to steal Ohio and probably a couple other states
They’re making stuff up, you can bank on it. Let’s go vote Tuesday and put this away.
Sponsoring FReepers are contributing
$10 Each time a New Monthly Donor signs up!
Get more bang for your FR buck!
Click Here To Sign Up Now!
In the end they will be able to say they were right and just pick one of the many conflicting polls that best matches Tuesday night’s results.
It’s time to start archiving all the polls to remember who is pumping up the liberal side fictitiously.
In 1980, the media reported the race as too close to call and acted surprised that the Gipper won. How do you miss a 44 state blowout of an incumbent president? Easy. They wanted to.
In 1984, the media suddenly forgot to report polls. The day before the election, USA Today reported, “Reagan seeks 50 state sweep.” That was the only time the media told the truth that year. Afterwards they acted like they knew Mondale would lose all along.
In 1988 the media colluded with Dukakis campaign manager John Sasso to produce stories that a lame little slogan, “I'm on your side,” had produced massive fervor for Dukakis. Lou Harris called the race a “dead heat” on election day. Bush won 40 states. Barry Goldwater correctly predicted it would be the last such win for the GOP.
In 1992, Newsweek featured artistic drawings of Bill Clinton taking the oath of office eight months before the election. Nina Totenberg predicted a landslide victory for Clinton the Monday before the election. Nobody talked about Perot as a vote for Clinton, not even our side. The polls showed a Clinton blowout. He won by five.
Dole was routinely portrayed as fifteen to twenty points down in 1996. He lost by nine and basically forfeited. It was the first of GOP decisions to nominate doughnut holes as GOP candidates.
In 2000, the race was close, but a Democrat dirty trick nearly defeated Bush. The same media that decried Nixon's “dirty tricks,” and Bush's “Willie Horton” ads, gleefully reported the drunk driving story with fervent repetition.
In 2004, Dan Rather tried to fix the race and Freepers fought back in this website’s finest hour. The race was indeed close, but the press reported that Lurch was ahead of Bush.
In 2008, the media turned their flamethrowers on Sarah Palin with the same results they brought against Dan Quayle twenty years earlier. If Quayle and Palin had been Democrats, they would have been leftist saints, absolutely canonized.
So now they uniformly tell us the race is tied, just like in 1980, and refusing to make Benghazi an issue as they hid Iran from the campaign for Jimmy Carter after the primaries. They tell us the same crap as back then. They never change.
Just a little history as we head to the home stretch, from an old dude who remembers. I cast my first vote for Carter against Ford. I've never voted for a Democrat since.
If Romney takes Florida, Virginia and Missouri (which I think he probably will) then taking *either* Ohio or Pennsylvania brings him to the cusp of victory. He would need just one swing state from among Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire or Wisconsin to put him over the top.
If he takes Michigan or Minnesota, it’s all sewn up.
Don’t worry about NY or NJ. They can be ceded to Obama despite all the post-Sandy shenanigans that will likely ensue.
Those votes have not actually been counted, just assumed because the voter was a registered Democrat.
How many of those "registered Democrats" voted for Obama? Who knows, but I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few go Romney....just like when there were "Reagan Democrats".
PPP is a Democrap polling group, nuff said.
Let’s assume they are all for Obama. Although he leads he is way off his 2008 total which indicates Democrat turnout is going to be way lower than all these polls are assuming.
PPP is a democratic pollster with no credence! This poll is laughable over!!!
If 2012 is lost, there will be no 2016.
That CNN poll had a 22-pt advantage of Indies for Romney. That’s Reagan-Carter landslide territory. No incumbent (or challenger) has ever won with a deficit of -22 independents.
It is a statistical near impossibility.
I now can safely say with 100% confidence that Romney will win this going away 54%-45% withe 390+ EV.
Im headed to the Columbus rally tomorrow (from Dayton).
* * *
Please give us an after-action report! With pics!
(P.S. I’m so jealous! ;o)
This is more hogwash and attempts to supress the conservative vote. But it will not workl.
Gallup predicted a +3 GOP turnout today for Tuesday.
This is huge and is being ignored by the MSM.
All of the polls predicting an Obama lead are based on something close to a +7% Dem model. This means a shift of over 10% in the model if Gallup is correct.
This means a Romney win, and a big one if it is true.
Notice that Obama is not polling over 50% almost anywhere where the battle will be won. I believe Romney is going to take all of those states...and events like the 30K rallies in Ohio and Pennsylvania just underscore that.
I believe Dick Morris is going to be proven correct from the get go on this one and the pther pollsters, except for a few like Gallup and Rasmussen that have been tracking more towards Romney of late, will have egg on their face.
The are cooking the numbers by using a 2008 model that is not going to happen.
Just like the polls showed Reagan losing to Carter, but then winning handly, I believe (and pray) we are going to see a repeat of that.
So, in the spirit of II Chron 7:14, entreat God in Heaven, repent, fast and pray so that He will help us Heal our land, as He promises.
Lets keep working HARD right to the finish line...push right on through! Then, on Tuesday, lets all Fast, Pray, and VOTE for our Constitutional Republic and to STAND OBAMA DOWN! Please join our event to that end, doing so from our own homes or wherever you may be at:
Ohio = D+8
Virginia = D+6
Obama won Virginia by 6% in 2008...
What say you?
Also Virginia: Obama Approve/Dis 47/49
Romney Like/Dislike 49/47
Also shows Romney up +2 with Indies....
Strange to see Dick Morris and Michael Barone out on the same limb, but there they are predicting a Romney landslide...
Also, if I am reading the internals right in VA, it shows that 12% of their self-identified R’s are voting for Obama...
And correction VA is +5 in this poll
Thank you Chris Christie!
If Obama does win, God forbid, you will have a lot to answer for.
We shall see Tuesday night. And with all the Dem voting cheaters being reported
the MSM will still cry stolen by Repubs because their predictions said otherwise.
Happy Hangover, Rats..
Kickin’ or lickin’?
This is pure old D Bull $^*(/ contact me Wednesday morning for the wrap up/
Romney will win in 2012. Bu lost to conservatives yet.
Let me guess. You are still upset that Mondale won the presidency in 1984?
Very wise plan, have to agree with you.
And I wonder how many of these GOP “landsliders” posting, will disappear in here, after Tuesday.