Skip to comments.Pennsylvania (positive signs)
Posted on 11/04/2012 7:35:15 PM PST by shoedog
I didn't think PA was really a possibility until last couple days. Polls are looking good. However some real clues lie in the size of the crowd Romney pulled in a district Obama won with 53% in 2008. Additionally Clinton going there for 4 stops tomorrow. That is important for two poins. Dems worried. And the bigger point (my editorial belief) they know Obama isn't popular but PA liked Clinton, so they are sending him to try to pull the indy's and Dem's they are losing! The momentum is there PA people just get out and vote
SE Pa, from Pittsburgh to Waynesburg, has strong support for Romney.
Pittsburgh, Blue Bell, Philly, Scranton
You mean SW Pa.
And you’re right. :)
My dad’s family is all in Northeastern PA (Schuylkill County)—they ALWAYS vote Democrat. Generations of coal miners. They are voting for Romney.
Bush got almost 19.5% of Philly in 04. I think Romney will crack 20% or maybe a little more of the Philly vote. Problem is Dems keep growing their registration pie in Philly. Will there be a lesser turnout of that bigger pie? Maybe 560,000 for Obama to 150,000 for Romney. That is nearly the deficit (412,000 versus 410,000) Bush had coming out of Philly in 04 and Bush lost by 2.5% Can Romney make up that 410K deficit with higher turnout and more independents voting for him?
And we have a winner!!!
May there be many more like them.
Barone seems to think that Romney can mine enough votes in Bucks and other suburbs of Philly to get over the Philly hump. Guy knows what he’s talking about and the rally may be an indication that Romney is going to perform well in those burbs.
Geez, I was born in SW Pa.!
Given the sluggishness of the FR server for many users, maybe you should consider not posting images for the next couple of days if at all possible.
Well, as Rocco said in the Godfather 2: “Difficult. Not impossible.” Bush was the incumbent, the GOP turned out about as many voters as they possibly could in 2004, and he still lost by 2 points. Toomey, in a GOP wave year (2010) managed to only win by 2 points.
Now that being said, some points in Romney’s favor. His moderate, touchy-feely nonsense will probably play better than either Bush or Toomey, so I would expect him to outperform them by a few points. Romney should do well in the Philly suburbs, which are voter-rich. Romney needs to beat Obama there to offset the massive lead Obama will pile up in Philadelphia. There are not enough votes in the rest of the state to offset the 400,000 - 450,000 vote hole Romney will be in if he can’t win Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester counties.
A few more plus Romney points. I am gradually seeing a few more Romney signs. I think people are becoming more interested in voting for Romney, than against Obama. I myself will now happily vote for Romney, whereas at one point I said I would not vote for him. Also, Romney is blowing Obama right off the air. Since Romney made a play for PA, his ads outnumber Obama’s 3-1. That should help.
If the independents significantly break for Romney, he will probably take the state. I would give him about a 40% chance of carrying PA. One last thought. Ed Rendell knows more about PA politics than anyone. He also will let the mask slip occasionally and tell you what he really thinks. He said Romney will outperform Tom Smith by a few points, presumably because Romney is more moderate. Smith is supposed to be within a point or two of Bob Casey, so Romney may actually be tied or ahead. I still give him a 40% chance.
The only images hosted on-site are the ones Jim deems worth pasting onto the front page.
Not too surprising Penna is in play - just remembering Obama’s “you can start a new coal company, but we’ll bankrupt it” - took people a while to catch on, but those who grew up in the coal fields of the Keystone state, even if they aren’t working in the mines now, seem to be finally waking up.....
If Obama loses, the party absolutely belongs to Clinton again starting Nov. 7th.
“Heck, take it from me, your pal Bubba, I can vouch for this nice young Black guy. I know you have your doubts about him, but you don’t have any doubts about me, right? So I’m tellin’ ya, I swear, even I couldn’t have done a better job fixin’ this mess in only four years than this nice young Black guy.”
Could you EVER picture Clinton having to make this kind of case for an older, more experienced White Democrat who was running for re-election? The idea that Clinton’s speech at the Democrat Convention helped Obama is nonsense! It was SOOOOO affirmative action. And the joke is that Clinton himself knew that he was ultimately hurting Obama, even though so many people thought he was helping him.
if Obama was going to PA he’d probably go to Hershey via the highway...