I just got back from the rally today in PA, they told us we broke 30,000 that Ohio had yesterday (I heard 34,000 but I can’t confirm).
Bush had a rally in 2004 at the same location, and it was tiny in comparison to this. It was a sea of people out there.
Romney’s performing the best in the suburbs of Philadelphia since 1988, I’m certain. If Pennsylvania is a swing state, then it’ll go for Romney this time.
If not, I don’t know how the GOP can ever pick up PA.
An enormous rally for Mitt Romney in Bucks County, PA had people incredulous and tweeting like fury:
http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=156074
Obama will win Philadelphia county. He is likely to win Lakawanna county. Delaware, Montomery and Allegheny counties are toss ups. What is very notable is Allegheny (Pittsburgh), it is literally a dead heat there. Romney will win at least 62 counties, and in many of those counties Romney will get between 65 to 75% of the vote.
There is no early voting, but absentee ballots are in. Romney is up 19% in absentee voting.
While all of this sounds encouraging, you have to realize that over 550k will be voting for Obama in Philadelphia. If turn out is low in Philadelphia, 560k and below, then Romney will win. Obama has to get the vote out in Philadelphia. The machine in Philly is a machine. 83% will vote for Obama.
It is very difficult for all the small red counties in Pa to make up for the Philadelphia vote. A big help would be winning Bucks, Montomery and Delaware counties. I think Bucks will go for Romney. We’ll see about the other two.
I’m curious what you guys think about my take on this.
It would seem to me that Clinton would only serve to remind them of how badly 0 is doing.
Am I off base here, or are the dems in bad enough shape that they have no choice but to take that risk?
Just out of curiosity, Freepers, how effective could Clinton, or anyone be—the day before the election? It’s a Monday...kids in school, working people at work...I guess the unemployed could go watch Clinton. Surely, all the undecideds have made up their minds, right?
This is precisely why I have favored having Romney as the nominee since W. barely eked out an electoral majority in his reelection campaign in 2004. The 2012 Republican Romney/Ryan ticket is the mirror image of the 1992 Democrat Clinton/Gore ticket. The purpose of having two northerners on the Republican ticket this year is the same as having two southerners on the 1992 Democratic ticket. It's to double down on appeal to a region in which the party has been week in recent elections.
Look at the 2000, 2004, and 2008 electoral maps. Some Great Lakes/midwestern states were just out of reach. I figured Romney was the right candidate to pick off Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Guess where the swing states are this year.
This is precisely why I have favored having Romney as the nominee since W. barely eked out an electoral majority in his reelection campaign in 2004. The 2012 Republican Romney/Ryan ticket is the mirror image of the 1992 Democrat Clinton/Gore ticket. The purpose of having two northerners on the Republican ticket this year is the same as having two southerners on the 1992 Democratic ticket. It's to double down on appeal to a region in which the party has been week in recent elections.
Look at the 2000, 2004, and 2008 electoral maps. Some Great Lakes/midwestern states were just out of reach. I figured Romney was the right candidate to pick off Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Guess where the swing states are this year.
SE Pa, from Pittsburgh to Waynesburg, has strong support for Romney.
My dad’s family is all in Northeastern PA (Schuylkill County)—they ALWAYS vote Democrat. Generations of coal miners. They are voting for Romney.
Well, as Rocco said in the Godfather 2: “Difficult. Not impossible.” Bush was the incumbent, the GOP turned out about as many voters as they possibly could in 2004, and he still lost by 2 points. Toomey, in a GOP wave year (2010) managed to only win by 2 points.
Now that being said, some points in Romney’s favor. His moderate, touchy-feely nonsense will probably play better than either Bush or Toomey, so I would expect him to outperform them by a few points. Romney should do well in the Philly suburbs, which are voter-rich. Romney needs to beat Obama there to offset the massive lead Obama will pile up in Philadelphia. There are not enough votes in the rest of the state to offset the 400,000 - 450,000 vote hole Romney will be in if he can’t win Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester counties.
A few more plus Romney points. I am gradually seeing a few more Romney signs. I think people are becoming more interested in voting for Romney, than against Obama. I myself will now happily vote for Romney, whereas at one point I said I would not vote for him. Also, Romney is blowing Obama right off the air. Since Romney made a play for PA, his ads outnumber Obama’s 3-1. That should help.
If the independents significantly break for Romney, he will probably take the state. I would give him about a 40% chance of carrying PA. One last thought. Ed Rendell knows more about PA politics than anyone. He also will let the mask slip occasionally and tell you what he really thinks. He said Romney will outperform Tom Smith by a few points, presumably because Romney is more moderate. Smith is supposed to be within a point or two of Bob Casey, so Romney may actually be tied or ahead. I still give him a 40% chance.
Not too surprising Penna is in play - just remembering Obama’s “you can start a new coal company, but we’ll bankrupt it” - took people a while to catch on, but those who grew up in the coal fields of the Keystone state, even if they aren’t working in the mines now, seem to be finally waking up.....
If Obama loses, the party absolutely belongs to Clinton again starting Nov. 7th.
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