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Rasmussen Party Id: Republicans +5.8 (All Time Record)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/05/2012 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 11/05/2012 9:22:53 AM PST by nhwingut

Oct 2012: Republican: 39.1% Democrat: 33.3% Other: 27.5% (R+5.8%)

Sep 2012: Republican: 36.8% Democrat: 34.2% Other: 29.0% (R+2.6%)

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; partyid; polls
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To: trappedincanuckistan

When I posted that DU touted PEW poll yesterday, it may have looked like some hyperventilating. However, I wanted to show the internals which really favored Romney, and the difference between the headline of registered voters O 50% R 47% v. likely voters, 0 48% R 45%, and again, Obama doesn’t make it to 50% with like voters.

-PEW over-weighted women voters v. men voters by 8%

-PEW showed Indies breaking for Romney - 49% to 0 37%.

-PEW as usual over-weighted Dems like the rest of the Dem media pollsters.

PEW is also run by Madeleine Albright who as we know was Billy Clinton’s Secretary of State. So I know they are biased big time.


101 posted on 11/05/2012 11:26:48 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: Fresh Wind
"If this is true, how can Rasmussen have the election at R+1? That makes no sense."

Exactly. If half the independents are going for Obama, and Obama pulls 85% of Dems, Romney would have to be at 65% with Republicans. Nutty Numbers.

102 posted on 11/05/2012 11:28:41 AM PST by cookcounty ("When I speak, I say what I mean and I mean what I say!" ---Joe Biden, 10/11/2012)
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To: AaronInCarolina

Good link, thanks.

This explains a lot as to why Rasmussen is using a D+ model. You have to go with what has been historically accurate....now, if by some miracle the exit polls show R+ this year, it’ll be a more difficult job for pollsters in 2016.

Of course, it makes sense that more Ds show up in exit polls if it is true that Ds are more prone to talking to people...while Rs won’t.


103 posted on 11/05/2012 11:29:05 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: AaronInCarolina

Good link, thanks.

This explains a lot as to why Rasmussen is using a D+ model. You have to go with what has been historically accurate....now, if by some miracle the exit polls show R+ this year, it’ll be a more difficult job for pollsters in 2016.

Of course, it makes sense that more Ds show up in exit polls if it is true that Ds are more prone to talking to people...while Rs won’t.


104 posted on 11/05/2012 11:30:07 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: Raycpa

Nate Silver - BWAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA! (It’s going to be better tomorrow - Silver, the NY Slimes, Wash. Compost, and PMSNBC all in one night...exploding (talking, liberal) heads...


105 posted on 11/05/2012 11:30:33 AM PST by SeattleBruce (Tea Party like it's 1773! Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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To: Red Steel

Ahahaha you were laying in the weeds my friend!!!!!!!!!


106 posted on 11/05/2012 11:33:41 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

I’d rather go in with low expectations. That way if it’s bad news tomorrow, I’ll be ready for it. And if it’s good news, it’ll be an even bigger rush of excitement. Any negativity I feel in advance of the election is mitigated by the fact that it’s still an uncertain outcome.

So either it’s slightly unhappy now followed by either a big rush or a mild crash tomorrow...

Or it’s slightly happy now followed by either a big crash or a mild rush tomorrow...


107 posted on 11/05/2012 11:35:12 AM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; SoftwareEngineer; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude
Check out the accuracy of Rasmussen's party id to turnout...


108 posted on 11/05/2012 11:40:56 AM PST by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
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To: who knows what evil?

If I wore a Chick-Fil-A T-shirt to vote, would it be considered partisan campaigning within a polling place?


109 posted on 11/05/2012 11:41:45 AM PST by Brookhaven (The Democratic Party has become the Beclowning Party)
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To: A_Former_Democrat

I think a lot of independents and Republicans have held back in their support because they weren’t sure Mitt could make it to the end in this climate. I think the enthusiasm is newly found respect and pure glee. I know I’m as impressed as all get out, and I’ve always liked Mitt. He has whipped the media and now it’s time to take it to Obama.


110 posted on 11/05/2012 11:43:59 AM PST by des
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To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

Despite RAS saying that he thinks the final turnout will be D/R/I of 39/37/24 (and I disagree) it turns out that for the full week ending SUN 11/04 he was using a D+4 sample!

No wonder his Republicans for Romney number was low

For those of you that have subscriptions:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/platinum/full_week_crosstabs/crosstabs_full_week_crosstabs_october_29_november_4_2012

Also, it is clear that for the full week, the Governor loses one point due to rounding. The “Leaning Romney” number is shown a 0, which is why the poll is R:49 O:48

However 1% of whites (74% of sample) lean Romney. But that got rounded down

BOTTOM LINE: Scott Rasmussen believes that in the general populace Republicans outnumber Democrats by 6% (as per his October release)

However, he believes that on Election Day, we will get a D+2 sample

ON TOP OF THAT, he polls with a D+4 sample!!


111 posted on 11/05/2012 11:45:03 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Fresh Wind

Because Rasmussen does not vary his sample based on his party identification results. I don’t understand why he doesn’t, but he doesn’t.


112 posted on 11/05/2012 11:45:29 AM PST by Personal Responsibility (In times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act - Orwell)
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To: nhwingut
The repudiation of Ubama is going to be of historic proportions.

And there is nothing that the Criminal Organization Formerly Known as ACORN can do about it, because they can't cheat enough to make a difference.

113 posted on 11/05/2012 11:48:42 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: nhwingut

Interesting. October 2012 closely resembles October 2008, except Republicans and Democrats have changed places.


114 posted on 11/05/2012 11:49:50 AM PST by Cap Huff
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To: SoftwareEngineer
However, he believes that on Election Day, we will get a D+2 sample...

That's because he is presuming that all the illegal voters are Democrat.

115 posted on 11/05/2012 11:54:39 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: nhwingut
To all those who were wringing their hands about the polls, there were many on FR who were telling you to be patient, the truth would come out-and here it is.

The polls have been based on false assumptions to keep an appearance of it being close.

This is why they know the GOP isn't going to lose the Congress!

Tomorrow is going to be a great day as millions of Americans rise up and retake this nation from the Marxists who have controlled it for the last 4 years.

116 posted on 11/05/2012 12:00:42 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: nhwingut
To all those who were wringing their hands about the polls, there were many on FR who were telling you to be patient, the truth would come out-and here it is.

The polls have been based on false assumptions to keep an appearance of it being close.

This is why they know the GOP isn't going to lose the Congress!

Tomorrow is going to be a great day as millions of Americans rise up and retake this nation from the Marxists who have controlled it for the last 4 years.

117 posted on 11/05/2012 12:02:19 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: 73nole
Don’t know if thats the case but just saying.........how else to you explain 12% Republicans voting for Obama?

I've met them in PA. They're nominal Republicans. Maybe Rockefeller or Bloomberg Republicans. They're Republican because their parents were and they just "see" themselves that way. But their views are mostly liberal. They're likely to have voted for Ron Paul in the primary. They may have succumbed to peer pressure over the years from being in a heavily Democrat region where they were told they were "stupid" if they supported Bush. It also may be a form of "soft" rebelling against their parents votes.

118 posted on 11/05/2012 12:04:02 PM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I guess Rasmussen has to keep the numbers close to get you guys curious enough about the internals to become platinum members of his site.


119 posted on 11/05/2012 12:06:43 PM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: Windflier

“Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama.”

I bet 1/2 of them are Democrats and liberal indie Obuggery sympathizers who lied that they were GOP voters.


120 posted on 11/05/2012 12:06:46 PM PST by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: who knows what evil?

“Holy cow...8.7% swing from 2010?”

and a 12.8% reversal from 2008.


121 posted on 11/05/2012 12:07:53 PM PST by RightSight
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To: Brookhaven
Only if you failed to give equal time to the competition...


122 posted on 11/05/2012 12:08:26 PM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: America_Right
I wonder how long he has been sitting on this info

ALL the media, TV and PRINT, have been INTENTIONALLY keeping it close in order to build a HUGE audience because they MAKE their MONEY selling TV spots and Print ADS.

The BIGGER the audience numbers the MORE they charge for those ads.

Whatever the polls are, or are not.. it's inevitable that they ALWAYS build the suspense of the outcome by MAKING it razor close, even if it means bull$hitting the public into believing it IS, when it ISN'T. As you know, they do this CONSTANTLY with practically everything.

123 posted on 11/05/2012 12:11:29 PM PST by VideoDoctor
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To: Windflier

“Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama.”

I bet 1/2 of them are Democrats and liberal indie Obuggery sympathizers who lied that they were GOP voters.


124 posted on 11/05/2012 12:16:24 PM PST by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: nhwingut

COLORADO EARLY VOTE REPORT:

2008:
1,704,280 total early vote:

Dem:
37.7%
Rep:
35.9%
Unaff/Oth:
26.4%

2012: 1,707,805 as of yesterday:

Dem:
34.57%

Rep:
36.58%

Unaff/Oth:
28.72%

**Apparently, Douglas County’s numbers are not all in. (Douglas is almost 2-1 GOP and among one of the 10 largest counties in Colorado)

So, a swing away from Dems of 3.8-4.0% since 2008. How much is due to changes in GOP voting early more often? Hard to say. But with Indies (”Unaffiliated” in Colorado) breaking to Romney, it looks like He has a bit of an edge.

Indies broke heavily for Obama in 2008, not what polling indicates this year.

Early vote-by-mail ballots are still being dropped off at Election Board locations today. And CAN be dropped off at precincts tomorrow


125 posted on 11/05/2012 12:35:56 PM PST by cookcounty ("When I speak, I say what I mean and I mean what I say!" ---Joe Biden, 10/11/2012)
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To: nhwingut

Do you have a url for that graph?


126 posted on 11/05/2012 1:16:08 PM PST by Ken H
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To: America_Right; woweeitsme

My theory in polling has always been this...Not whether or not it`s accurate,but that the masses buy up the announced numbers.

The announced numbers become reality to the mindless massses. Pollsters know this, and is why they release phony numbers hoping to manufacture opinion.

I believe this from the depth of my being, but am unable to prove it


127 posted on 11/05/2012 1:16:10 PM PST by Friendofgeorge (Michael Barone says its a landslide...believe it)
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To: nhwingut

for later


128 posted on 11/05/2012 1:26:31 PM PST by Doctor 2Brains
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To: nhwingut
Wow, that is impressive. If he is anywhere close to being right, 0 is toast.

Gov. Romney is the next President of the United States. Congratulations Governor.

129 posted on 11/05/2012 1:38:44 PM PST by nwrep
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To: nhwingut
..the only word that comes to mind is

Landslide


130 posted on 11/05/2012 1:38:54 PM PST by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: nhwingut

I sure hope the polls are all wrong. I thought that would happen in 2008 (I was delusional), so I’m cautiously optimistic.

Plus, I do not want to have to face my students’ cheers Wednesday if B.O. wins.


131 posted on 11/05/2012 1:42:51 PM PST by thirdgradeteacher
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To: nhwingut

I sure hope the polls are all wrong. I thought that would happen in 2008 (I was delusional), so I’m cautiously optimistic.

Plus, I do not want to have to face my students’ cheers Wednesday if B.O. wins.


132 posted on 11/05/2012 1:43:12 PM PST by thirdgradeteacher
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To: manc

“and yet the media have ignored in their polls these numbers, they have ingored Libya, the economy, the negative name calling and immaturity and they HAVE IGNORED SANDY.”

The Corrupt Media is just that. A corrupted arm of the RAT party. Period. End of story (a little pun...)

Thank God for the blogosphere, radio and for Fox News (as corporatized as it is...nothing wrong with making a buck, but I just think if it’s ever possible to make more money on libtards, they will start swinging that way. As it is, they are kind of just down the middle weirdly, maybe where news orgs should be?? Is the market dictating that to them? Does news reporting objectivity have its own market value? No wonder the libtards hate Fox, as they are the only station that even tries at this. As such, they are in such contrast to the Corrupt Media to be stand outs - even if they cut pretty closely down the middle. And libtards hate that, as they’re very used to owning the entire media complex...)


133 posted on 11/05/2012 1:58:27 PM PST by SeattleBruce (Tea Party like it's 1773! Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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To: nhwingut

Ok, I know what this says.......but what does it mean? Is RAS oversampling Rs?


134 posted on 11/05/2012 2:01:56 PM PST by FL911
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To: johncocktoasten

“It means Obama CANNOT WIN, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Florida. He cannot win those states period. All conversation in that regard is pointless.”

But, but, but - what about David Axlerod’s bravado? And his reputation (heh!) and mustache are on the line!


135 posted on 11/05/2012 2:02:56 PM PST by SeattleBruce (Tea Party like it's 1773! Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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To: nhwingut

Great News !! Unfortunately, it’s still anyone’s guess how Sandy affected this number. It’s sad but people’s party preferences shift for lesser reasons.


136 posted on 11/05/2012 2:03:23 PM PST by Bigjimslade
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To: VideoDoctor

“Whatever the polls are, or are not.. it’s inevitable that they ALWAYS build the suspense of the outcome by MAKING it razor close, even if it means bull$hitting the public into believing it IS, when it ISN’T.”

Funny, they didn’t run with this narrative in 2008. In 2008, it was all about ‘tune in and see history!!!!!!!’ And alas, many did...and that too got ratings (to your point.)


137 posted on 11/05/2012 2:13:55 PM PST by SeattleBruce (Tea Party like it's 1773! Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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To: Leto

Thanks for the explanation.


138 posted on 11/05/2012 2:14:26 PM PST by Lacey2
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To: SeattleBruce

HATE THIS MEDIA, I HNESTLY DO HATE THEM.

They have lied for years, they have been the new Dem [socialist] party talking heads.

All the issues they have been ignoring and all the attacks they do on the republican party and the constitution makes me sick.


139 posted on 11/05/2012 2:16:43 PM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Friendofgeorge

“The announced numbers become reality to the mindless massses. Pollsters know this, and is why they release phony numbers hoping to manufacture opinion.”

This brings in the theory of the sheeple. Many are too busy (I’m being kind), or too stoooopid (OK, perhaps a bit unkind, but warranted, right?) to check past the top lines. Either way frankly, pathetic, and a far cry from, ‘Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.’


140 posted on 11/05/2012 2:23:25 PM PST by SeattleBruce (Tea Party like it's 1773! Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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To: nhwingut

39%??? That’s almost like the old Dem percentages pre-Reagan. May we dominate with 42% this decade like they did for so long.


141 posted on 11/05/2012 2:25:52 PM PST by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: Cato in PA

I’m thinking the polling firms have been targeted and infiltrated. Also targeted on the respondent side for shenanigans. The internals have been laughable. D+11?? 64% white electorate nationally? Obama doing better than men than with women? I’ve seen all these things in recent polls.

But one thing I’ve seen in most, somehow Romney has dropped 6-8 pts in Republican support in the last month and “switched to Obama” when we’ve seen the opposite here, several hardcore conservatives have grudgingly conceded to vote Romney, knowing what’s at stake.

The only explanation is Dems are pretending to be Repubs and claiming to support Obama. That gets the opinion of real Repubs out of the game, but it also improves on the Repub numbers in general, which is why you won’t see 5+R come tomorrow.


142 posted on 11/05/2012 2:37:30 PM PST by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: manc

I can understand the level of your feelings. Good points about socialism and the attacks on the USC. Further, at a very basic level, we all get sick and tired of being lied to.


143 posted on 11/05/2012 2:38:14 PM PST by SeattleBruce (Tea Party like it's 1773! Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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To: nhwingut

I read a theory the reason that the polls are always oversampling Dems is that none of the pollsters call cell phones. The theory is that the polls underreport Dem supporters who supposedly are less likely to have land lines.


144 posted on 11/05/2012 2:45:08 PM PST by DouglasKC
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To: Windflier

On the occasions that I allow a pollster to interview me, I let them know that I am a conservative Republican, and that I will vote for the Democrats.

It seems that I’m not the only one who does that.


145 posted on 11/05/2012 5:32:15 PM PST by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: SoFloFreeper

Rs do not talk to exit pollsters in sufficient numbers that it really throws off their figures.

Again, I am one of those blokes who will tell an exit pollster that I am a GOP registered but I voted for the Dems.

I NEVER answer pollster’s questions accurately. I do as much a mix and match as I can with them so they won’t be able to figure out how to screen my answers out by somehow figuring I am someone who lies to them, too.


146 posted on 11/05/2012 5:40:49 PM PST by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: DarthVader

Last time to reply to this thread about this:

I always tell pollsters that I am a conservative GOP register, and that I am voting for most of the Dems. I’ll tell them accurate demographic info, but scramble my responses about issues.

This is part of the reason that their “3% error” or whatever is very understated. That is merely a statistical calculation, and assumes that people are giving honest answers. It also explains how 12% of GOP is voting -bama, in this instance, since I am not the only person doing this.


147 posted on 11/05/2012 5:48:46 PM PST by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: AFPhys
On the occasions that I allow a pollster to interview me, I let them know that I am a conservative Republican, and that I will vote for the Democrats.

I'm just curious. Why do you do that?

148 posted on 11/05/2012 5:54:19 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: SeattleBruce

agreed


149 posted on 11/05/2012 6:32:30 PM PST by Friendofgeorge (Michael Barone says its a landslide...believe it)
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To: DAC21

Supposedly Axelrod told some connected folks that it is baked in, it’s a done deal 100% guaranteed.

i dont know where you saw that written but i have to believe if we lived in a society where that was true, where george soros or someone had all the computers rigged, it wouldnt come out in some whisper campaign.


150 posted on 11/05/2012 6:34:34 PM PST by willywill
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