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THANK YOU VERY MUCH OHIO!!! Let's Guess... Romney/Ryan by +3!  |
Posted on 11/05/2012 1:15:27 PM PST by LS
Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.
Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and - most startlingly - Pennsylvania.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Good news - Mike Francessa, a sports talk guy on WFAN in New York just said he believes Obama will sneak by and win with a slim margin. This buffoon is hardly ever right about anything so I am feeling a little better right now about a Romney win!
Excellent quote FRiend.
We had Ollie North on the radio the other day saying there was NO “military not receiving ballots.” Urban legend, and quite frankly, too many of these around FR. Man up people.
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THANK YOU VERY MUCH OHIO!!! Let's Guess... Romney/Ryan by +3! |
It will be nice to see how well these internal guys do, since the big name polling outfits are blowing it.
Yep. It all comes down to turnout tomorrow.
Barone said he thinks the rural counties in Ohio will show up in unprecedented numbers for Romney and that will be what makes the difference. Sounds reasonable to me.
I have been predicting a razor thin Romney win in Ohio and in the general election for months now. Sounds like Rove believes that is exactly what is shaping up.
Agreed. I don’t think they are factoring in Independents.
Corbett isn’t going to tolerate that kind of garbage from Philadelphia anymore, especially since after we took back Harrisburg in 2010 we already won on the Voter ID front.
I have faith that if the Dems have to try to pull off massive fraud, that Corbett will be ready to litigate them into oblivion.
I will tell you the internals are probably much stronger, this is a game the Romney team has been playing with Team Obama for months and they are wearing them out chasing us around
I just talked to a friend of mine in Iowa and she talks to folks across the country and they are in general pissed at the current administration. The media is trying to drive last minute voters to somehow give Barky another 4 years but I do not think it is gonna happen!
It is gonna be a TSUYROMNEY!!
Our precinct is located at an Evangelical megachurch. They are nice people who keep a good watch on cars in their parking lot and even offer coffee and cookies to voters on the way out.
Not doubting he's ahead, but leaking that he's up by 3 or 4 or 5 would be a dangerous move, especially given that we have more votes still waiting in OH, and the Dems have more in the can. On the other side, he certainly wouldn't leak that he's down; unless it's out of reach, so if the source really is trustworthy, that says Nevada is gone. That's OK. We don't need it.
It won’t this close, I see Ohio going 52-48.
Rasmussen on Hannity saying that they are predicating everything on a D+3 turnout but that if it moves even 1 point toward Romney, than he’s looking at 315+ Electoral Votes....
FYI
It will be a tidal wave.
I agree. Real internal polls are almost never leaked for any reason.
I wish Hannity would ask Rasmussen whey he is expecting a D+3 turnout tomorrow based on the +5R ID.
But, Rasmussen is very much giving himself some room here by saying that if turnout is different even by a point than the D+3 he has been using, this will not be close.
I wouldn’t count NV out just yet.
Another thing going for us in Pennsylvania this year is that up to a week to ten days ago, the DemoCARP fraud machine believed Romney had written the state off. They haven’t had the time to organize their usual fraud in Philly.
In 2008 there were 200,000 provisional ballots cast; and it is estimated that military and overseas ballots number about 20,000 this year.
believe that landslide stuff at your own peril. Everyone is saying close even Romney’s internals if you are to believe the source. YES we have more enthusiasm and hopefully that translates into huge turnout for us or at least greater turnout vs dems.
I'm not criticizing, just observing.
It's this attitude times millions that answers why the economy stagnates under a President like zero.
Why the economy stagnates when five trillion is spent above what the economy can produce.
It explains why the stimulus multiplier that economists like to tout, is so low.
zero is an appropriate name for this man and his effect.
They wouldn't leak it to The Guardian if they didn't want it published. (If they leaked it to the NY Times or WaPo it would just be faxed to Chicago.) I think it's probably to encourage the GOTV effort to bring reluctant Romney voters in. I think it would be dangerous to claim a lead of, say 3-4 points, even if that's what they see.
It’s psyops, plain and simple, and the fact that the author is a Romney “insider” makes me even more sure that the real number is somewhere north of this. They’ve decided on a number that 1) is credible 2) is on the positive side, and 3) will maximize turnout by energizing committed voters to show up. In OH, that number is +1. In PA and WI, they probably don’t actually know which way it will go because the recent past history is so different between 2008 and 2010, so they’re questioning their own models — which might look quite good. But in states with some volatility between 2008 and 2010 Party self-ID is going to be a huge variable — and may even be changing as we type...
This
NOW I wonder if Freepers will whine about extending voting hours?
It's certainly a fun game, but Rove, the Rs I know around here . . . no one is acting like they lost and every one is acting like they won.
And even with a +3D model Ras has Romney ahead 1 point and winning indies by 10. Obama can’t get to 50.
This is misinformation leaked by RR to get NV voters to get their butts out of their chairs tomorrow and to keep the anxiety levels up in other states so that people actually turn out.
Last thing Romney wants is for Republican voters to fully believe the poll skew reality ... until after the election. This gives everyone a reason to actually engage in the minor inconvenience of voting tomorrow even if they believe it’s in the bag, for fear of guilt that if they don’t, results in a close election could have depended on them.
RR internally knows it’s over.
Rasmussen and Brone(sp?) on Hannity radio...OH state NONE can say who will win it! Both agree FL and VA going to Romney....STILL STUBBORN OH or else he would WIN PRES!! PA maybe both say...wow! NV Obama, CO Romney, WI maybe STRONG...WOW! BOTH don’t predict TSUYOMNEY...sorry..they both say a VERY TIE RACE...it’s ok, looks like ROMNEY HAS THE MO to capture the states that need to be in his column, except OH! None of them wanted to predict winner. DEAR GOD please bring OH to Romney’s column!
Romney would not leak polls that would either show PA to be hopeless, or in the bag. He's doing PsyOps to psych Republicans to all go to the polls and vote. It's all going to be about turnout.
GOP senators: Thousands of ballots unlikely to reach military voters in time
“A group of Republican senators said Monday that thousands of voter ballots are unlikely to reach military service members until after Nov. 6.”
“One day ahead of the election, Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), John McCain (R-Ariz.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) sent a letter to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to express their concern over delays in ballots reaching military voters overseas.”
LOL. Perfect timing.
Wow. Really significant.
BTW, Rove released internals either the day before or the day of the election in 04. So it does happen.
You remember Calville wrote a book on how the Democrats were going to rule for the next 40 years.
The 2008 election was an aberation, not a change and the polls refuse to acknowledge the fact that the Democrats are not going to outperform the Republicans on getting out the vote.
Hence, they have oversampled Democrats in all of their polls.
This election is going to destroy that Democrat myth once and for all.
Thanks for checking in.
I agree they want it published. That makes it a press release, not a "leak." And at this point in the campaign, a press release from anyone is something to be skeptical of.
That means the most likely US readership is Drudge's, which means the target is us. That tells me that the number they've decided on "leaking" is the one most likely to encourage the troops and make sure they turn out. I do not believe under any circumstances they would "leak" a number better than +2%.
Axelrod has been telling CEO's "it's in the bag" and that has a number of FReepers fretting. Really? Why? What do they expect Axelrod to say? "We're losing. Send us more money!" CEO's contribute to winners in anticipation of consideration. They aren't going to bundle for 0bama if they think he's done for; that would be wasted money to no purpose other than pissing off the next administration.
I agree they want it published. That makes it a press release, not a "leak." And at this point in the campaign, a press release from anyone is something to be skeptical of.
That means the most likely US readership is Drudge's, which means the target is us. That tells me that the number they've decided on "leaking" is the one most likely to encourage the troops and make sure they turn out. I do not believe under any circumstances they would "leak" a number better than +2%.
Axelrod has been telling CEO's "it's in the bag" and that has a number of FReepers fretting. Really? Why? What do they expect Axelrod to say? "We're losing. Send us more money!" CEO's contribute to winners in anticipation of consideration. They aren't going to bundle for 0bama if they think he's done for; that would be wasted money to no purpose other than pissing off the next administration.
It’s not when the ballots get to them but when they return, and I think the return date is postmarked before 11/17. That’s a pretty big window.
Peril? Huh?
Like I said NO ONE HERE IS PLANNING TO STAY HOME FOR BEING ENTHUSIASTIC. We aren’t stupid.
Geeze why is it always the Democrats that get to go into an election not acting like their dog has just died?
Um, Rove leaked internals in 2004. Story about it out today.
He’s playing the pollster game at zero hour.
Call it every which way and be right no matter what.
The thing about Ohio is that Obama figured that Romney had to have Ohio, and so Obama put a lot of resources there. He is undoubtedly ready with all the fraud and lawyers he can muster in Ohio. Obama doesn’t need to win there, he just needs to keep it close enough that he can jimmy the recount, maybe use some fancy lawyering. Romney, meanwhile, went with a strategy that met Obama head on in Ohio, so it is real close there, but also went after Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Nevada, and even Minnesota. Obama isn’t prepared to lose any of those states, and his strategy of creating a close election in Ohio and then using the power of the DOJ to muscle his way to a second term won’t work. He has to get all those other states, too. If Ohio is close, but he loses Pennsylvania, or Michigan, his litigation and riot strategy won’t work. It’s not likely he can be close enough in all those states, and come up with enough phony issues, to keep his hopes alive. Still not sure if he will ever concede, or if there is any in his entourage who will make him concede, but it won’t matter. He’ll be done.
..OH will go red, but not as close as ‘04—I’m feeling landslide Professor...
I think Barone has looked carefully at the early voting precinct by precinct numbers and in doing that has determined what is pretty clear from the look on 0bama's face: they are nowhere close to their targets -- that actually matters more to them than 1 point in the polls.
And yes, it's quite fun to try and guess what's really going on. I wouldn't put it past them to engage in a little double-fake over Nevada.
Thanks LS. It happens, but not very often.
I do not recall the source, but sometime in September, I heard an interview with John McLaughlin, one of the most respected GOP pollsters. He said that Axlerod had been working over all of the polling firms, complaining that the polls were biased against minorities and young voters because they were undersampling women, Latinos, and people with cell phones. In fact, Gallup adjusted their daily tracker at about that same time in response to the complaints (and the lawsuit filed against them by the Justice Department, no doubt).
My theory is that, if Romney wins, the pollsters who predicted otherwise introduced a subtle but pernicious bias into their polls by trying to adjust their samples to fit these demographic factors, and as such, tilted them leftward. In essence, political correctness will have ruined their science, just like "climate change" has done to atmospheric science.
Wow - very interesting analogy!
Barone is now saying its tight on Hannity? Are you reporting correctly or what?
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