Sorry, but I don't buy it. As I said on another thread, any number being "leaked" about internals is a number that comes directly from the campaign staff or even the candidate himself. I don't care how well connected the source is. It's psyops, plain and simple.
Not doubting he's ahead, but leaking that he's up by 3 or 4 or 5 would be a dangerous move, especially given that we have more votes still waiting in OH, and the Dems have more in the can. On the other side, he certainly wouldn't leak that he's down; unless it's out of reach, so if the source really is trustworthy, that says Nevada is gone. That's OK. We don't need it.
posted on 11/05/2012 1:46:17 PM PST
("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
I agree. Real internal polls are almost never leaked for any reason.
I wouldn’t count NV out just yet.
posted on 11/05/2012 1:50:58 PM PST
(Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
"As I said on another thread, any number being "leaked" about internals is a number that comes directly from the campaign staff or even the candidate himself. I don't care how well connected the source is. It's psyops, plain and simple."
They wouldn't leak it to The Guardian if they didn't want it published. (If they leaked it to the NY Times or WaPo it would just be faxed to Chicago.) I think it's probably to encourage the GOTV effort to bring reluctant Romney voters in. I think it would be dangerous to claim a lead of, say 3-4 points, even if that's what they see.
posted on 11/05/2012 1:53:32 PM PST
("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
I don't know that NV is gone. But if they deliberately leaked this and the OTHER numbers are right, and ZEro's guys know they are right, then maybe just maybe they'd let up enough in NV to win that as well.
It's certainly a fun game, but Rove, the Rs I know around here . . . no one is acting like they lost and every one is acting like they won.
posted on 11/05/2012 1:56:26 PM PST
BTW, Rove released internals either the day before or the day of the election in 04. So it does happen.
posted on 11/05/2012 2:00:37 PM PST
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