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To: wolf24
For some reason, the polls have brought the Democrat narrative that Obama won because of a changing demographic (blacks, Latinos, single moms) and that demographic is going to outvote the Republicans, primarly the white, male.

You remember Calville wrote a book on how the Democrats were going to rule for the next 40 years.

The 2008 election was an aberation, not a change and the polls refuse to acknowledge the fact that the Democrats are not going to outperform the Republicans on getting out the vote.

Hence, they have oversampled Democrats in all of their polls.

This election is going to destroy that Democrat myth once and for all.

86 posted on 11/05/2012 2:01:37 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration
For some reason, the polls have brought the Democrat narrative that Obama won because of a changing demographic (blacks, Latinos, single moms) and that demographic is going to outvote the Republicans, primarly the white, male.

I do not recall the source, but sometime in September, I heard an interview with John McLaughlin, one of the most respected GOP pollsters. He said that Axlerod had been working over all of the polling firms, complaining that the polls were biased against minorities and young voters because they were undersampling women, Latinos, and people with cell phones. In fact, Gallup adjusted their daily tracker at about that same time in response to the complaints (and the lawsuit filed against them by the Justice Department, no doubt).

My theory is that, if Romney wins, the pollsters who predicted otherwise introduced a subtle but pernicious bias into their polls by trying to adjust their samples to fit these demographic factors, and as such, tilted them leftward. In essence, political correctness will have ruined their science, just like "climate change" has done to atmospheric science.

98 posted on 11/05/2012 2:22:22 PM PST by TonyInOhio (Remember: THE EXIT POLLS ARE WRONG!)
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