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Vanity: It's Time To Let Go Of "They Stole It"
11-8-2012 | Self

Posted on 11/08/2012 6:25:55 AM PST by M. Dodge Thomas

Reading the last two days discussion of what happened Tuesday, IMO there is one line of argument that needs to be abandoned because it's both incorrect and counterproductive:

"They stole it".

The problem with the "vote fraud" theory is that that convincing evidence that it's not correct; for example the actual results were very close to the aggregate polling predictions in the last weeks before the election, see for example:

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/07/after-the-storm/

For that to happen you would not only have to rig not only the election but also both the national and state level polling in such a way that the polls and final results would line up.

And the only way to do that massive conspiracy between polling organizations in fifty different states, which was somehow conducted without any evidence of it coming to light... and which operated almost perfectly each of the last three election cycles.

And the problem with believing that this sort of massive and perfectly conducted conspiracy is the problem, is that if prevents you from looking at the actual problem.

Which is that current Republican party can't sell the current conservative program as presented in the party platform and by the candidates to a majority of voters in the states with the EV total needed to win a presidential election - not even near the bottom of a deep recession when you opponent has may obvious flaws.

A national political party or movement in such a position may or may not be able and/or willing to do what's needed to change such a result.

But if you admit you have a problem, you have the potential to change something that might change your results.

But as long as your explanation for your poor results is "they stole it" - in the face of very convincing evidence from the aggregate polling that this did not happen - all you can do is stand around hoping the other guy screws up worst than you do, or that circumstances change to your advantage for reasons beyond their control, or both.

Which is hope, not a program.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: fraud; polling; vanity; voterfraud
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To: MNDude
I'm sure the indians in the dakotas and Montana cross over to vote....all they need to say is they live there, because afterall you can't question an indian or a black...it insults them....

pretty discouraging about the lack of values and ethics and morality....

but then people will go to their churches like they're some sort of good Christian....

we need to continue to take over state houses and legislatures as we can...

we need voter id and we need more control over registrations.....

we need vote integrity of our voting machines....they must be calibrated before and after by officials of both parties...and stopped several times during voting hours to check them again....

every voter needs to have his or her vote verified by a paper copy.....

of course this would take massive numbers of volunteers.....but if it meant taking our country back, couldn't we do it?

51 posted on 11/08/2012 8:52:27 AM PST by cherry
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To: LibLieSlayer

Excellent! Once again, you are right and speak the truth..
You really worked hard during this election...
Thanks for that...
I will always credit you for your role here during this time...
Kudos and cheers....


52 posted on 11/08/2012 8:54:41 AM PST by matginzac
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To: cherry

Minnesota voters just rejected the voter ID law. :(

We have to have these votes in off presidential vote years.


53 posted on 11/08/2012 8:58:33 AM PST by MNDude
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To: M. Dodge Thomas

BS....there are over 165,000 Precincts in this country.....in Portland, Oregon True the Vote found 2000 “registered voters” at a homeless shelter that didn’t receive mail....it would be VERY easy to commit FRAUD, which I believe happened. And, what needs to be addressed are the voter rolls and ID issues we lack in this Country. We’ve been conned.


54 posted on 11/08/2012 8:59:32 AM PST by goodnesswins (What has happened to America?)
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To: Ken522

And I like to remember that infamous open mic time when Obutthead and Medeved were chatting and Obutthead says, “... After the election, I will have more flexibility...”
He DIDN’T say, “ If I win the election...” Or anything that implied he had a challenge in winning...
And he was consistently down in the polls, favor ability, etc....


55 posted on 11/08/2012 9:00:19 AM PST by matginzac
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To: M. Dodge Thomas

I just want free condoms and an Obama phone.


56 posted on 11/08/2012 9:52:58 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: M. Dodge Thomas

BULL SHIT !!


57 posted on 11/08/2012 9:58:43 AM PST by MtnMan101
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To: M. Dodge Thomas
Uh... the aggregated polling was almost spot on in FL:

I'm talking about the RCP aggregated poll numbers. they were well off the mark. Do you know what aggregated means?

58 posted on 11/08/2012 10:09:24 AM PST by Kleon
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To: matginzac

Thank you very much. I promise... I am going nowhere and I will be right here telling it like I see it. GOD bless you... we are not finished yet!

LLS


59 posted on 11/08/2012 10:09:32 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (I AM JOHN GALT)
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To: AppyPappy
In Florida and Ohio, 5% of voters only voted for President (did not vote for Senator).

That's a huge number and a pretty clear sign of fraud.

60 posted on 11/08/2012 10:18:57 AM PST by Uncle Chip
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To: driftless2

It’s echo-chamber stuff. Look at the “unskewed polls” situation as well, it was pure fabrication, but it just so happened to be what we wanted to believe. Turns out, the “skewed” polls reflected the actual results almost exactly.
So, dirty tactics at the polling booth or no, doesn’t it look like maybe we’re focusing on the wrong end of the animal here? The numbers and arguments I’m reading in this would never hold up outside Free Republic. Conservatism is stronger than this, but there’s a whole country out there we need to convince, and the fraud thing will not help.

I do not personally believe fraud was a significant factor. I’m sure that will cause many here to discount what I say, but we’re not going to get anywhere with this, and investigations of voter fraud never find much. We need a strong game, not cries of “foul”.


61 posted on 11/08/2012 10:19:19 AM PST by LikeARock (Liberty or Death)
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To: napscoordinator
What about the Republican woman in Vegas was was arrested for trying to vote twice? Yes lots of fraud but on both sides.

Yeh but there is a big difference. When a Republican tries it [s]he gets arrested.

62 posted on 11/08/2012 10:29:29 AM PST by Uncle Chip
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To: napscoordinator

How do you know the woman was a republican. From the internet?

How do you know she wasn’t a rat trying to make the GOP look bad so they can say See, they do it too”.

One woman! Wow


63 posted on 11/08/2012 10:32:56 AM PST by dforest
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To: LikeARock

You are right. Everyone should go check out Freeper jackmercer & the work he’s done out here BEFORE the election. His numbers NAILED this election last week. He did this on his own computer with real numberes & data. How did he do that ? Was he in on the plot, Lol. Come on folks. Check out Real Clear Politics & Nate Silver....they hit it. Gallup & Ras screwed with the numbers & Freeper jackmercer shows how they did it BEFORE the election.


64 posted on 11/08/2012 10:42:14 AM PST by LongWayHome
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To: M. Dodge Thomas

My name isn’t Richard Nixon and I’m not bending over for Barry and just letting this go by “nicely.”

This election was stolen not only on the national level but in Senate races as well...to insure Obammycare would not be overturned. Every one of these races were polling “neck and neck” or “tied” for days or weeks prior to the election. I’ve never seen polling ties in elections although surely it has happened in the past. But in ALL of the election races? This defies the odds of probability or so I believe.

THAT closeness in races is absolutely essential in order to steal elections. Mayor Daley in 1960 delivered only about 8,000 fraudulent votes in Chicago for JFK to win IL and the presidency. All you need to know ahead of time is roughly how many votes you need to come up with. And today the technology for doing this is so far advanced in comparison with what Daley had to work with in 1960.

Any of you wonder how Barry could WIN BIG AND FAST on election night when only hours before he couldn’t raise a real crowd, even with Sprinsteen or Katy Perry appearing with him? Meanwhile Romney was raising HUGE crowds without needing pop star sidekicks to bring the people in. This doesn’t make sense when you look at the entire picture.

My guess is part of the theft originated with all the phony polling that was going on in the last few weeks/months. For example, all the people doing the polling calls need to do is get a phone picked up on the other end. After that they can pretty much record their findings any way they want. I saw this when my automated answering machine recorded a call from an automated pollster. Usually when an auto caller like Walgreens Pharmacy calls, the auto caller hangs up when they do not get a living person’s voice on the line. Not with the automated political pollster. It asked my answering machine question after question...not the same one each time there was no response from my machine but a new question each time. My machine is set to record messages for 3 minutes and it was asked 5 questions during that time before my machine finally cut out. The auto pollster was still talking when my machine cut the call off.

Things like this would allow pollsters to show on their phone records that a call they made was picked up and completed. Even though they never talked to a living, voting person. They could fill in the responses however they pleased. Are the polling companies complicit in this? I don’t know. Maybe. More likely it is a question of the people they are hiring to do the polling. Old ACORN people maybe?

This is just one aspect of where I see fraud happening and I’m still looking and reading because I know what happened was not on the up and up. Most people did not want Barry and it was fairly obvious by the numbers he drew in rallies and the way people on the street were complaining about him. But at no time did Barry, Slow Joe, Axelgrease, Steffie Cutter, or any of his band of criminals seem the least bit concerned that he could lose. At the time that bothered me and it does even more so in light of that Lightening Phase election return night.


65 posted on 11/08/2012 11:16:10 AM PST by An American In Dairyland
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To: LongWayHome
Exactly. Our trumpeting of the Unskewed data made us look ridiculous. Utterly refusing to believe hard numbers and discounting repeated analysis/reporting is not helping us. The conspiracy to rig these polls would have to be enormous, and is just not realistic. My idea of conservatism is based on facts.
66 posted on 11/08/2012 11:26:21 AM PST by LikeARock (Liberty or Death)
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To: C210N

*** NO. Well, er, yes.. we probably should abandon the issue, if only temporarily from a strategic perspective. BUT, while counterproductive, it IS CORRECT.***

I don’t expect or even want the Republican Party to take on this issue. In the first place, if they did it they’d only bungle it more. More importantly, Republicans have NO real interest in ending election fraud. If they did, it would have been tackled in the last 50 years.

I am interested in understanding for myself just what happened in 2012 and HOW they did it and sharing that with people who are similarly interested. I just don’t like being in the dark and FWIW I think the Republican Party deliberately covers up this issue because they prefer their “little people” to be in the dark on this issue.


67 posted on 11/08/2012 11:35:56 AM PST by An American In Dairyland
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To: M. Dodge Thomas
We can agree to disagree.

Maybe it's time to let go of the "They Didn't Steal It" line.

68 posted on 11/08/2012 11:40:49 AM PST by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
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To: LikeARock

Yup....it’s so obvious we were out voted, period. Lol, we have our own Nate Silver on FR jackmercer:) jackmercer took Ras & Gallup apart out here before the election. He showed just how they screwed with the polls.


69 posted on 11/08/2012 11:48:58 AM PST by LongWayHome
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To: Kleon
I'm talking about the RCP aggregated poll numbers. they were well off the mark.

I took a quick look at the RCP site, but could not find a link to the basis of their final FL projection, do you happen to have it?

Generally speaking, PEC is the "purest" of the "aggregation" sites (most inclusive of all polling, no adjustment for non polling factors) and their FL projection was a dead heat.

So RCP was doing something (ex: excluding or "weighing" specific polls / types of polls, "adjusting" for non-polling factors, using a different time window or adjusting significance by poll age, using approaches other than simulation, etc.) that skewed their results relative to PEC's projection.

If you can find a link to RCP's methodology, I'll take a look and try to determine what is was.

Do you know what aggregated means?

Yes.

Do you understand that as regards predicting this election, there was '"pure" aggregation' (ex: PEC) and then there was "aggregation + something else" (ex: 538, RCP?)?

70 posted on 11/08/2012 11:59:25 AM PST by M. Dodge Thomas (million)
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To: M. Dodge Thomas
I took a quick look at the RCP site, but could not find a link to the basis of their final FL projection, do you happen to have it?

Sure, it's here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html

Final RCP average was +1.5 for Romney.

71 posted on 11/08/2012 3:57:09 PM PST by Kleon
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To: M. Dodge Thomas

Cowardice against thuggery never wins; never has and never will.


72 posted on 11/08/2012 4:24:26 PM PST by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point. CSLewis)
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To: M. Dodge Thomas

BS. Try telling Allen West that he went from 1900+ votes ahead to 2000+ votes down when they added in absentees.


73 posted on 11/08/2012 4:53:36 PM PST by jch10 (BO went to bed and let Americans die.)
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To: Uncle Chip

And in Minn, Dems voted for the President, but not for issues that statewide Dems were fighting for.
Cause if you don’t live there and you only care about Obama, then of course you wouldn’t bother to figure out the local issues.


74 posted on 11/08/2012 5:02:32 PM PST by glitterdove
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To: dforest
Our side are not good fighters.

As our local talk guy Tom Rose said today, if the R's ever want to win nationally again they need to find the next Lee Atwater.

75 posted on 11/08/2012 5:10:12 PM PST by nascarnation (Baraq's bankruptcy: 2016)
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To: napscoordinator
lots of fraud but on both sides.

No there isn't. How can any self-respecting, honest person support a party whose motto is "Vote Early and Often"?

The answer is: They couldn't, they're not self-respecting, honest people.

But then again, that's why we call them RATs.

76 posted on 11/08/2012 5:21:01 PM PST by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate "Republicans Freed the Slaves" Month)
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To: Jedidah
"Your vote won't be counted. Now, get back in that foxhole private and play target".

Hope these military folk understand the message just given to them.


77 posted on 11/08/2012 5:25:34 PM PST by ex91B10 (We've tried the Soap Box,the Ballot Box and the Jury Box; ONE BOX LEFT!)
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To: joe fonebone
18% turnout in the primaries gave us the worst candidate since hoover, and one that can barely qualify as a rino, let alone a centrist moderate.

so, put the blame where it belongs... on the backs of the voters...

You are correct. In case any forgot, Romney was bashed mercilessly on this forum right up to the very end. And now people are acting surprised that he lost? Give me a break. This forum was filled with posters who said they would stay home if Romney was the nominee and stay home they did.

78 posted on 11/08/2012 5:35:22 PM PST by Drew68
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To: cherry

A touch screen is where fraud can come in.....see the Ohio places where Romney votes went to Obama. Software to change votes, after the voter has posted his ballot, has been invented.

In my county, old fashioned paper ballots, where you fill in a circle beside your choice, are used. That can’t be changed and you have a paper trail. A machine counts these votes and machines break down sometimes. Thats the downside but I’ll take the paper ballot anyday.


79 posted on 11/08/2012 5:38:05 PM PST by jch10 (BO went to bed and let Americans die.)
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To: M. Dodge Thomas

You need a license for that degree of stupidity......an expensive license.


80 posted on 11/08/2012 11:19:46 PM PST by S.O.S121.500 (That Queer Kenyan muzzy bastard is not my president. ENFORCE the Bill of Rights.)
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To: Kleon

Thanks,

A quick look tells us what happened: poll selection.

Just off the top of my head, RPC was excluding:

- Ipsos/Reuters
- JZ Analytics/Newsmax
- Angus-Reid
- YouGov
- Mellman

and likely a host of others which were included by PEC.

I can’t find a link to their poll selection methodology, so I don’t know their selection criteria, but whatever it was, it was the source of much if not all of their error.


81 posted on 11/09/2012 6:04:05 AM PST by M. Dodge Thomas (million)
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To: M. Dodge Thomas

Yes, but when I have worked at the polls I have seen evidence of fraud IN EVERY ELECTION!

Have you read my extensive posts?

How can it be that I went to the homes of 200 voters, knocked on the door, and found out that 50% did not exist? How can a number of precincts average 99% turnout?

Note that I staked out a dim precinct once to see how many voters entered in a four hour period. ZERO voters entered the building; yet that precinct showed 100% turnout when the votes were counted.

This is reality!

Until the Republican Party gets serious about this problem and comes up with a way to fight it, they will LOSE elections.

You don’t think the dims would commit massive fraud and multiple felonies? The party with the ties to organized crime and the drug cartels? Crooked unions? Crony capitalists?

See the proof:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2621405/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2625281/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2615479/posts


82 posted on 11/09/2012 7:33:09 AM PST by darth
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To: dirtboy

I wondered about that.


83 posted on 11/09/2012 7:42:00 AM PST by sauropod (For Barack so loved the poor, he created millions more of them.)
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